海通国际：26年量价有望齐增啤酒业竞争格局分化

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智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，2025年啤酒行业温和复苏，国产龙头实现份额与盈利同步提升，成本红利与运营效率优化成为盈利改善的核心驱动，企业间业绩分化进一步加剧。中期视角下，行业基本面与宏观环境高度联动，若消费需求边际回暖，产品升级红利有望持续释放，带动行业估值迎来修复窗口。长期而言，啤酒行业具备显著规模效应与稳定现金流属性，除竞争格局重构带来的投资机遇外，企业在产品创新、国际化及多元化...

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以内，反映企业在收入增速放缓背景下通过精细化运营提升费效比。行业仍处变革期新兴渠道重构竞争逻辑，现饮渠道占比从疫情前55%以上回落至40%左右，即时零售、零食量贩等新渠道快速崛起，企业纷纷加码新渠道布局与运营;传统依靠费用投放抢占份额的模式难以为继，行业竞争核心转向运营效率提升与终端消费者精准触达。消费偏好理性化倒逼产品革新，提价驱动增长路径面临瓶颈，企业着力打造适配多元消费场景的产品矩阵，同步布局特色啤酒、非啤酒品类培育新增长点，成效仍待市场长期验证。公司治理与现金流管理优化，行业管理层更迭频繁，管理风格更趋务实，组织运营效率持续提升;企业现金流充裕，资金重点投向股东回报与长期发展布局。26 年行业展望Q1 延续总量稳健，结构分化格局，各企业渠道布局、产品战略各有侧重，龙头依托基地市场壁垒与产品结构升级能力，业绩表现持续跑赢行业;全年行业销量预计维持低单位数正增长。全年三重催化共振，1)25 年受外卖大战、政策因素影响基数偏低，为26 年旺季复苏筑牢基础;2)世界杯等体育赛事落地，有望显著拉动现饮渠道消费需求;3)CPI 回升、餐饮渠道转暖的市场预期若如期兑现，将助力行业ASP 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海通国际：26年量价有望齐增 啤酒业竞争格局分化

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海通国际：26年量价有望齐增啤酒业竞争格局分化