彭博：马斯克“画饼”本事能否托起SpaceX 2万亿估值？

凤凰网科技04-07

马斯克凤凰网科技讯北京时间4月7日，据彭博社报道，知情人士称，SpaceX将与投行顾问举行会议，对该公司的2万亿美元目标估值进行压力测试，这是其推进史上最大规模首次公开招股(IPO)过程中的关键一步。在SpaceX与xAI合并两个月后，资深银行家们正准备就这家火箭公司的IPO展开磋商，以确定这一高企的估值是否仍能吸引投资者。知情人士称，该公司目前的市场估值预计将突破2万亿美元，而不到两周前这一...

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北京时间4月7日，据彭博社报道，知情人士称，SpaceX将与投行顾问举行会议，对该公司的2万亿美元目标估值进行压力测试，这是其推进史上最大规模首次公开招股(IPO)过程中的关键一步。在SpaceX与xAI合并两个月后，资深银行家们正准备就这家火箭公司的IPO展开磋商，以确定这一高企的估值是否仍能吸引投资者。知情人士称，该公司目前的市场估值预计将突破2万亿美元，而不到两周前这一预期还是1.75万亿美元。“你必须相信，马斯克会继续兜售梦想，这也是他们在提交IPO招股书之前一直在做的事情，没有人比马斯克更擅长兜售梦想了。”哥伦比亚商学院兼职副教授、巴克莱银行前全球股票资本市场联席主管戴维·埃里克森(David Erickson)表示。不靠基本面按照2万亿美元以上估值计算，SpaceX将超越标普500指数中除五家公司以外的所有企业，仅低于英伟达、苹果、 Alphabet、微软和亚马逊。尽管SpaceX营收仅为这些公司的零头，但其估值将使“科技七巨头”中的另外两家公司Meta、特斯拉相形见绌。分析师估计，这样的估值意味着按历史销售额计算，其市销率将超过100倍，远高于散户投资者喜爱的Palantir大约79倍，后者目前是标普500指数中市销率最高的公司。SpaceX估值排名第六据彭博行业研究估计，SpaceX的火箭发射项目和星链卫星将贡献其大部分营收，2026年有望接近200亿美元，而xAI的营收可能不足10亿美元。“实际上，这并不是关于基本面的问题，从数学角度来看，没有人能靠基本面达到那个估值，因为数学上行不通。”埃里克森表示。两次关键发射知情人士告诉彭博社，在6月的潜在IPO之前，SpaceX预计会进行两次火箭测试发射。金融数据公司PitchBook的高级分析师弗兰科·格兰达(Franco Granda)表示，这两次发射“对IPO的成败至关重要”。“如果这两次测试中有任何一次失败，IPO甚至可能根本不会发生。这将决定所有人对IPO的态度。”格兰达称。马斯克上周五在X上发帖称，SpaceX最新一代可重复使用的超重型运载火箭的首次飞行预计将在四到六周内进行。SpaceX此次上市最多可能筹集750亿美元资金，远超沙特阿美在2019年上市创下的290亿美元纪录。该公司将利用IPO所筹集的资金，资助马斯克关于建设太空AI数据中心以及月球工厂的愿景。宏大计划马斯克的宏大计划将需要前所未有的资金，以及横跨他旗下多家公司的资源。马斯克在3月份表示，他的Terafab项目将由特斯拉和SpaceX共同运营，最终将为机器人、AI和太空数据中心生产自有芯片。PitchBook分析师格兰达一个月前曾称SpaceX的目标估值“合理”，但他提醒说，马斯克不断扩张的愿景可能会给估值带来上行空间，但也会增加越来越多的风险。“当估值开始超过1.75万亿美元时，问题就变成了：他们在多大程度上可以依赖马斯克的公众形象来推高估值？”他说。和与xAI合并时的1.25万亿美元估值相比，SpaceX如今飙升到了2万亿美元，也是去年12月公司部分内部人士通过要约收购出售股份时的8000亿美元估值的两倍多。然而，在SpaceX秘密提交上市文件之前，投资者通过不透明的特殊目的载体(SPV)进行的SpaceX相关私募市场交易活动大幅飙升。私募市场数据公司Caplight Technologies的信息显示，今年前三个月，仅通过这些SPV进行的交易活动价值就达到数亿美元。Caplight称，总交易量是该数据提供商在去年最后六个月所观察到的交易量的两倍。Caplight 追踪由数百家经纪交易商、注册投资顾问及其他合格机构投资者组成的网络所报告的交易数据。知情人士称，美国银行、花旗集团、高盛、摩根大通和摩根士丹利在本次IPO中担任牵头角色，SpaceX还在承销商阵容中增加了更多银行。一位知情人士表示，该公司已安排在周一与阵容更大的银团召开电话会议，并于4月底举行分析师简报会。 这些会议的最终结果，可能取决于马斯克能否让投资者将目光始终聚焦于愿景而非数字之上。“它曾经是一个资本密集型的优质公司故事。现在你开始加入真正的科幻式计划，而财务数据对他们并不有利。”格兰达表示。对于彭博社报道的2万亿美元估值，马斯克似乎在4月3日发表的帖子中进行了驳斥，称“不要相信你读到的一切”。(作者/箫雨)更多一手新闻，欢迎下载凤凰新闻客户端订阅凤凰网科技。想看深度报道，请微信搜索“凤凰网科技”。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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