混合键合，拐点已至？

格隆汇04-07

这两年，HBM几乎成了整个行业绕不开的关键词。在火热的AI加速器之上，除了居于核心位置的GPU，最吸引目光的，往往是那几颗紧贴其旁的HBM。它们大多通过热压键合堆叠而成，其在DRAM芯片之间布置微米级金属凸块，经由加热与加压完成连接与成型。这套工艺已沿用近十年，成熟、稳定，良率也在可控范围内。但真正的瓶颈，出现在高度上：而标准机构JEDEC给出的封装高度上限为775微米，在这一空间内，需要同时容纳...

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V-Cache中早已得到验证，但当对象变成HBM，难度却出现了成倍放大，原因不难理解，它不再是两层芯片的结合，而是16层乃至20层DRAM的高堆叠结构，任何一层的失误，都意味着整颗芯片的报废。业内普遍估算，目前HBM混合键合的良率仍徘徊在10%左右，而真正迈向商业化，至少需要跨过60%的门槛。即便如此，三星与SK海力士仍在今年同步迈出了量产验证的第一步。两家公司，两种算盘SK海力士是HBM市场的现任霸主，全球市占率超过70%，HBM收入占其DRAM总销售额超过40%，2026年的产能早已被提前锁定，它提前导入混合键合，更像是一种防守，提前把下一代的技术筹码握在手里，避免被三星或美光在HBM赛道上抢占先机。据韩媒报道，SK海力士上月下单了一套由应用材料（Applied Materials）与Besi联合开发的混合键合在线设备，价格约200亿韩元，这是该公司首次采购量产型混合键合系统。这套设备把应用材料的CMP和等离子处理工序，直接整合进Besi的键合机里，此前已在台积电的生产线上落地，用于AMD 3D V-Cache的量产。有意思的是，同期SK海力士还准备引入韩华半导体的设备，计划今年4到5月启动大规模工艺验证，押注不同供应商让其看起来更加游刃有余。三星的动作看起来更急。据报道，三星选择在HBM4上直接推进混合键合，而非沿用SK海力士主导的MR-MUF路线。这背后多少有点无奈，毕竟它在HBM封装上已经落后将近两年，如果继续跟随，追上的只是昨天的技术，赶不上明天的市场。今年三月，三星在英伟达GTC 2026上专门放出了混合键合技术视频，宣称与传统TC键合相比热阻可降低20%以上，并在ISSCC上发表论文展示了用晶圆间混合键合技术制造4F² DRAM的过程，在一向低调的技术披露上显得格外主动。三星CTO宋载赫在2026韩国半导体展上的主题演讲还强调了技术的先进性，其表示，当12层和16层HBM使用混合键合运行时，基体芯片温度可降低超过11%。但三星的子公司Semes是个变量。三星正在评估Semes的芯片到晶圆混合键合机，内部化的生产逻辑很清晰，减少对外部供应商的依赖，控制核心制程。但问题是，Semes在混合键合设备上的整体质量，目前仍落后于Besi，这条路走通之前，三星还得同时在外部设备上押注。标准机构的背刺就在两家大厂密集落子的同时，标准机构却在它们背后扎了一刀。据报道，JEDEC正在讨论将HBM高度标准从775微米放宽至约900微米，新标准预计从第七代HBM4E开始生效，这意味着用现有TC键合设备在更厚的芯片上堆更多层变得可行，混合键合从20层时必须引入变成了还能再等几年。值得关注的是，英伟达和亚马逊AWS据报道均计划采用台积电的SoIC先进封装方案，而SoIC会将系统半导体垂直堆叠，天然让整体封装厚度增加，这给整个GPU生态系统在HBM高度规格上留出了更多喘息空间。此外，HBM4的焊盘间距恰好落在10微米临界点附近，在这个间距下混合键合的成本竞争力本就难以超越微凸块方案，这一代产品即便不做标准调整，混合键合也未必有足够的商业理由强行上马。标准的变化，让荷兰的Besi站上了风口浪尖。设备龙头，大涨和暴跌Besi是这场混合键合热潮最耀眼的受益者，也是最暴露的靶心。据Financial Times预测，Besi混合键合业务收入从2023年的3600万欧元，有望在2026年飙升至4.76亿欧元，届时将占公司总营收的约三分之一。这个增长预测是Besi高估值的重要支柱。所以当JEDEC的消息传出，Besi股价在当天盘中跌幅一度超过19%，在此之前，这只股票刚刚在过去一年涨了58%，五年累计涨幅超过200%。但不到两周，Besi又因为另一件事大涨逾10%。据路透社报道，Besi收到了来自外部的多方收购接触，Lam Research是其中之一，而此前已持股约9%的应用材料同样被认为是潜在买家之一。同一家公司，同一段时间，因为混合键合可能延迟跌了一次，又因为混合键合太重要有人想买涨了一次，颇有些讽刺感。值得关注的是，Degroof Petercam分析师Michael Roeg指出，JEDEC此前就有过放宽HBM堆叠高度规格的先例，此次讨论更可能改变混合键合的采用曲线，而非将其彻底终结。UBS则认为性能和散热优势在更高层数时仍会让混合键合成为不可绕开的选项。而从Besi自身来看，它并不是完全依赖于混合键合设备，其在TC键合和高精度贴片设备市场中同样占有一席之地，只不过目前来看其增速势必要放缓一些。各谋出路？HBM标准的模糊，让每家设备厂商都开始重新思考自己的发展路线。韩美半导体（Hanmi Semiconductor）是目前TC键合市场无可争议的老大。TechInsights数据显示，其在全球HBM TC键合机市场份额高达71.2%，SK海力士几乎是其独家大客户，美光后来也开始下单。JEDEC的标准变化对韩美来说不是坏消息，这意味着它现有生意的生命周期延长了。今年2月的Semicon Korea 2026展会上，韩美半导体还展示了专为HBM5、HBM6打造的新型宽幅TC键合机，其指出，由于混合键合商业化遭遇延迟，这台设备有望填补市场空白。但韩美同时也在仁川第七号工厂投入超过500亿韩元，专门建设混合键合生产线，计划明年上半年投产，用于HBM的混合键合机预计2027年推出，用于SoC的版本则推迟至2028年。它的战略看起来很明确，TC键合负责当下，混合键合等赛道真正热起来再全力冲刺。另一家韩国本土的设备厂商韩华半导体（Hanwha Semitech）的处境则要微妙许多。这家公司花了大力气，与荷兰精密制造商Prodrive合作开发了第二代混合键合机SHB2 Nano，精度达到±100纳米，对标Besi旗舰产品的精度指标。设备已在荷兰完成组装并运回韩国，计划向SK海力士交付测试。它面临的问题是，合作开发的成本结构比自主研发更高，而市场开口又因为标准讨论变得更加不确定。有业内人士指出，SHB2 Nano的研发速度快于Prodrive的常规节奏，其精细度的长期稳定性仍有待量产验证。更直白地说，韩华半导体已经把相当多的筹码押在了一个时间表尚不明朗的赛道上。应用材料（AMAT）走的是另一套逻辑，其提早买入了Besi约9%的股权，成为其最大单一股东，同时合力开发Kynex D2W混合键合在线系统，这套集成了CMP、等离子处理与键合工序的方案，已经在台积电的产线上量产运行。AMAT的想法是把自己多年积累的前道制程能力往后延伸，把CMP这样的前端强项嵌入封装流程，构建一个竞争者难以单独复制的完整平台。同时借助Besi的设备网络和客户关系，直接进入SK海力士和三星的供应链视野，事实上，这次SK海力士的首单大型混合键合采购，两家联合设备正是中标者。另一位设备龙头，K&S（Kulicke & Soffa）的布局更像是守正出奇。这家做了七十多年引线键合的老牌厂商，2026年3月宣布扩展面向存储的互连解决方案全线产品组合，预计其TCB业务在2026财年将环比增长约70%，并已加速推进混合键合研发项目，吸引了早期客户兴趣。可以说，K&S更倾向于在TCB上先发力，同时并行推进混合键合研发，等到市场真正成熟，再作定向投入。ASML，不请自来混合键合这场博弈中，最令人感到意外的，其实是一个从来不做封装设备的公司。据韩媒The Elec报道，ASML已开始设计混合键合设备的整体架构，并与长期合作伙伴Prodrive Technologies和VDL-ETG展开合作，两者分别负责EUV磁悬浮系统的线性电机驱动和机械结构制造。这两家公司恰好也是韩华半导体SHB2 Nano的核心合作方，ASML如果真的入局，某种程度上是从零件供应链层面截断了后进者的建设路径。ASML的CTO Marco Peters公开表示，在看过SK海力士等存储厂商的技术路线图之后，他确认了堆叠制程设备的需求是真实存在的，并且正在亲自审视公司在半导体封装领域的产品组合方向。但ASML的CEO也坦言，混合键合相关业务在2030年以前对公司营收产生显著影响的概率较低，ASML要做的，是在赛道成熟前就完成技术储备和生态卡位。仔细思考下，其实ASML这种跨界卡位在技术上可行性并不低，目前ASML的High-NA EUV系统套刻精度达到0.7纳米，混合键合所需的对准控制属于它已经熟悉的数量级。一旦真的下场，它进场时的技术起点就不是其他封装设备商的初级阶段，而是直接带着几十年纳米级精控的经验。甚至有业内人士评价，ASML的混合键合机一旦面世，将立即改变现有竞争格局。落地，才是真正的问题所有这些布局、押注、进场与观望，归根结底都在等待同一个答案：混合键合，究竟何时才能在HBM量产线上真正跑起来。从现有路线图来看，答案大致指向HBM5，也就是20层堆叠的那一代。三大存储厂商已基本确认将在这一代中大规模导入混合键合。按照行业普遍预期，HBM5的时间窗口落在2028至2030年前后。在此之前，TC键合仍将通过无助焊剂等工艺持续演进，而JEDEC围绕封装高度的标准博弈，本质上是在为这段过渡期争取更多时间与空间。但这张看似清晰的路线图，最大的不确定性，来自英伟达。三星与SK海力士已经开始向其送测基于混合键合的HBM3E样品，一旦英伟达在下一代Rubin乃至更后续平台上，对带宽、功耗或延迟提出跳跃式要求，整个行业的节奏都可能被迫提前改写。良率、标准，以及英伟达的需求——任何一个变量发生偏移，混合键合的量产时点都可能继续后移。而对于设备厂商而言，这并不是一道做或不做的选择题。混合键合的方向已无悬念，差别只在节奏，有人观望，有人加速，有人提前卡位，至于JEDEC的标准调整，不过是这场长跑中的一次短暂补给。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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