格林威治首席投资官：经济不会衰退，但美联储可能加息!

智通财经04-07

智通财经APP获悉，格林威治财富管理公司(Greenwich Wealth Management)首席投资官瓦汉·詹吉吉安(Vahan Janjigian)指出，尽管市场对通胀回升的担忧日益加剧，但他对美国经济的韧性持有乐观态度，认为近期发生经济衰退的可能性极低。然而，这种稳健的经济表现并非全无代价，詹吉吉安警告称，关税与高油价的叠加效应正为美联储营造严峻挑战环境。他指出，这些因素可能推动核心...

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Janjigian)指出，尽管市场对通胀回升的担忧日益加剧，但他对美国经济的韧性持有乐观态度，认为近期发生经济衰退的可能性极低。然而，这种稳健的经济表现并非全无代价，詹吉吉安警告称，关税与高油价的叠加效应正为美联储营造严峻挑战环境。他指出，这些因素可能推动核心通胀率和总体通胀率双双走高，使美联储陷入\"比此前更为艰难的境地\"，相比于此前市场普遍期待的降息，进一步加息的可能性反而正在显著抬升。这一观点的背后是多重通胀因素的交织共振，尤其是能源成本的飙升与政策预期的转变。受中东局势动荡及伊朗冲突等因素影响，全美无铅汽油价格已突破每加仑4美元，直接推高了核心通胀与总体通胀预期。詹吉吉安认为，当前的经济环境已与年初的乐观预期大相径庭，为了应对持续存在的物价压力，美联储可能不得不重启加息工具以稳定市场。基于这一预判，詹吉吉安已经开始调整其资产配置策略，通过减持能源行业交易型开放式指数基金(XLE.US)以及墨菲石油(MUR.US)等相关个股，对近期由油价上涨带动的利润进行获利了结，以规避潜在的利率风险。虽然他预计油价最终会回落，但他并不认为油价将重返战前水平，而是预测油价将\"稳定在每桶80至90美元区间的某个位置\"。为对冲潜在经济放缓风险，詹吉吉安正转向防御型高股息股票。他目前增持金佰利(KMB.US)和斯马克(SJM.US)，视其为兼具抗风险韧性与高股息率的稳健标的，不易受经济疲软显著冲击。他仍持有Verizon(VZ.US)和IBM(IBM.US)的长期收益型仓位，尽管当前未增持这些标的。\"过去几年，它们为我带来了极其可观的回报，\"詹吉吉安表示，再次重申了他对派息型股票的偏好。尽管面临通胀和美联储政策不确定性带来的逆风，詹吉吉安对当前市场环境仍秉持机会主义态度。他削减周期性能源板块敞口、同时增持防御性消费类标的的策略，反映出他对经济能够经受住近期挑战而不陷入衰退抱有信心。值得一提的是，华尔街内部对美联储未来的政策走向仍存在显著分歧，市场情绪正处于剧烈的博动之中。一方面，高盛的经济学家持有相对温和的立场，他们认为美联储通常不会仅因外部石油冲击而采取收紧货币政策的激进行动，且由于当前的金融环境已经显著收紧，再次加息的可能性依然处于极低水平，高盛甚至维持了年内降息两次的基准预测。另一方面，野村证券等机构则表达了更为深沉的忧虑，其分析师指出，如果通胀长期无法回归2%的目标区间，政策滞后效应可能导致经济衰退的风险攀升至近年来的最高点。当前，美国经济正步入一个由成本推动型通胀主导的新阶段，美联储官员的表态也正从“偏鸽”向“观望”甚至“偏鹰”转变。尽管鲍威尔主席曾公开暗示加息并非目前的首选情境，但随着经合组织(OECD)将2026年美国通胀预测上调至4.2%，以及进口物价涨幅超预期等硬数据的支撑，市场不得不开始重新评估利率长期维持高位(Higher for Longer)甚至进一步上调的可能性。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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