华创证券：油气涨价撬动电车需求 4月零售有望继续改善

智通财经04-08

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，3月内需恢复进度超预期、油气涨价撬动国内电车提前复苏，海外电车需求大幅提升，造就整车出海的定价重塑。展望未来，内销增速有望回正、碳酸锂扩产带动未来成本回落，1Q26已成为近两年基本面低点，同时出海有望为中国电车带来3年以上的全新成长大周期。进入4月，预计终端零售伴随年改款、新车上市继续改善，尤其今年北京车展新车较多，对行业需求、车企催化估计也将较为明显。华创...

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improve","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80175":0.6,"81211":0.6,"600418":1.93,"09863":1.93,"GELYY":1.93,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"01211":1.93,"BYDDY":1.93,"00175":1.93,"002594":1.93,"EVS.SI":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，3月内需恢复进度超预期、油气涨价撬动国内电车提前复苏，海外电车需求大幅提升，造就整车出海的定价重塑。展望未来，内销增速有望回正、碳酸锂扩产带动未来成本回落，1Q26已成为近两年基本面低点，同时出海有望为中国电车带来3年以上的全新成长大周期。进入4月，预计终端零售伴随年改款、新车上市继续改善，尤其今年北京车展新车较多，对行业需求、车企催化估计也将较为明显。华创证券主要观点如下：3月新势力车企交付量表现亮眼零跑交付5万辆，同比+34.9%，环比+78.2%；理想交付4.1万辆，同比+11.9%，环比+55.4%；蔚来交付3.5万辆，同比+136.0%，环比+70.6%；小鹏交付2.7万辆，同比-17.4%，环比+79.7%；广汽埃安交付4.1万辆，同比+65.2%，环比+246.9%。3月传统车企奇瑞汽车、赛力斯销量同比增长显著奇瑞汽车销量22.8万辆，同比+15.0%；赛力斯销量2.7万辆，同比+11.7%。3月销量，上汽集团排名第一，37.6万辆，同比-2.6%，环比+39.5%；长安汽车排名第二，27.1万辆，同比+1.1%，环比+78.3%；吉利汽车排名第三，23.3万辆，同比+0.4%，环比+13.0%。2月乘用车批发、零售销量同环比下滑2月乘用车批发154万辆，同比-15.4%，环比-22.7%，狭义乘用车批发152万辆，同比-14.9%，环比-22.9%；国产乘用车零售112万辆，同比-14.1%，环比-26.1%；乘用车出口销量59万辆，同比+58.0%，环比-0.6%；估算库存变动-17.3万辆，同比-30.9万辆，环比-5.2万辆。投资建议3-4月乘用车销量、盈利、出口皆有望超预期，板块后续核心关键在于出海逻辑和情绪共振，估值有望随成长预期增强而上行。重点推荐吉利汽车(00175)、零跑汽车(09863)、比亚迪(01211)、江淮汽车(600418.SH)。吉利有望实现基本面和估值双提振，零跑为板块弹性标的，比亚迪则为出海大逻辑的龙头公司。此外江淮调整较多，当前缺乏催化剂，但好格局、高ROE、大空间的中期逻辑不变，当前是非常不错的配置时点。风险提示宏观经济不及预期、地缘政治波动、汽车行业销量不及预期、新车上市销量不及预期、原材料价格波动等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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