电子退潮、电力设备登顶！券商金股上月飘绿，四月行业分布变天

21世纪经济报道04-07

21世纪经济报道记者孙永乐　　券商研究所每月发布的金股组合，集中反映机构对未来1个月市场的大势研判与风格判断，历来是市场重要风向标。　　回顾3月，地缘冲突升级，全球资本市场震荡，券商金股组合整体表现不佳。数据显示，41家券商月度金股组合全部实现负收益，整体收益率为-8.4%。　　进入4月，券商新一期金股出炉，赛道偏好出现明显转向。霸榜两年之久的电子板块热度腰斩，电力设备则凭借景气优势登顶，成为机构...

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Brokerage Gold Stocks Floated Green Last Month, Industry Distribution Changed in April","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159982":0.64,"300308":1.91,"300750":1.9,"03750":1.9,"EVS.SI":0.6},"content_text":"21世纪经济报道记者孙永乐　　券商研究所每月发布的金股组合，集中反映机构对未来1个月市场的大势研判与风格判断，历来是市场重要风向标。　　回顾3月，地缘冲突升级，全球资本市场震荡，券商金股组合整体表现不佳。数据显示，41家券商月度金股组合全部实现负收益，整体收益率为-8.4%。　　进入4月，券商新一期金股出炉，赛道偏好出现明显转向。霸榜两年之久的电子板块热度腰斩，电力设备则凭借景气优势登顶，成为机构集中推荐的方向。　　展望后市，外部扰动仍存，叠加财报密集披露期到来，卖方机构在配置上普遍倾向于兼顾防御属性与业绩确定性，在波动中挖掘结构性机会。更有卖方首席喊话“勿自乱阵脚”，市场调整反而是机会，建议积极布局。 　　三月组合集体“飘绿”　　3月，受中东冲突升级影响，全球资本市场均受到不同程度的冲击。在地缘冲突干扰下，A股市场整体呈现震荡调整态势。　　A股主要宽基指数中，沪指月初一度突破前期阶段高点，随后震荡回落，全月累计下跌6.51%。北证50、中证1000、中证500调整幅度较大。　　受此影响，券商金股集体“飘绿”。根据开源证券研报，3月份券商金股组合整体收益率为-8.4%，2026年以来收益率为0.0%。　　不过，从全历史区间来看，券商全部金股组合年化收益率为13.5%，收益表现优于沪深300指数和中证500指数。　　行业方面，3月的券商金股组合中，电子行业的推荐度持续领先，往后依次为有色金属、基础化工，以及医药和电力设备。　　事实上，尽管3月主要指数整体表现偏弱，但市场结构性行情依旧活跃，电力、医药、算力、化工等板块轮动走强。　　个股方面，佛塑科技、源杰科技、亚翔集成、比亚迪、宁德时代等金股月度收益靠前，当月收益率分别为43.5%、36.3%、32.7%、21.6%、21.1%。　　四月行业分布变天　　步入4月，外部扰动依旧在，A股2025年报披露期迎来尾声。　　新一期券商金股出炉，整体行业分布变天。几乎连续霸榜两年后，电子行业跌落第一的位置，热度几乎腰斩，此番券商态度变化出乎市场意料。　　每市数据显示，相较于上月，电子行业成为权重下滑幅度最大的板块，位居热度跌幅榜榜首；与之相反，电力设备行业权重增幅最为显著，环比热度提升近七成。　　开源证券研报认为，4月份券商金股的市值水平上升，估值水平下降，或表明4月份券商金股转向价值风格。　　具体而言，电力设备位居推荐榜首，海外能源替代逻辑持续强化；医药生物时隔多月重返第二，产业进展与股价表现的背离逐步修复。　　有色金属、基础化工分列第三、四位，两大上游板块在经历深度回调后，配置价值再度凸显；电子板块滑落至第五，AI叙事阶段性降温，叠加地缘扰动与海外市场映射波动，板块整体承压明显。　　值得关注的是，银行板块推荐度环比大幅提升116%，反映出在3月地缘持续扰动下，市场风险偏好有所回落，资金避险情绪显著升温。 4月金股行业分布（40家研究所） 来源：美市科技(每市)　　个股方面，4月，中际旭创、宁德时代、紫金矿业、安井食品、科达利、美的集团、海天味业等金股推荐次数靠前。　　每市数据显示，中际旭创（300308.SZ）以10家券商推荐，位居榜首；紧随其后，宁德时代（300750.SZ）获9家券商联合推荐。　　一家是全球光模块龙头，一家为全球动力电池龙头，这两家上市公司为何备受券商研究所青睐？　　银河证券认为，中际旭创主要有三大驱动因素：硅光模块出货量提升带动利润率上行；1.6T及800G速率光模块高需求高景气带来的业绩增长；需求高企但供给紧缺市场宏观背景下年降幅度可能有所收窄。　　对于宁德时代，东吴证券指出，市场普遍认为2026年电动车销量增速下滑或将影响电池需求，但他们认为动力单车带电量提升叠加储能爆发，行业需求持续向上，仍将带动宁德时代龙头份额以及业绩增长。　　同时，中国巨石、紫金矿业、比亚迪、吉利汽车各获6家券商联合推荐；中国海油、招商轮船、药明康德、卫星化学等7家各获5家券商联合推荐；另有5家上市公司各获4家券商联合推荐。　　市场面临双重验证　　展望四月，卖方机构普遍认为，市场面临地缘冲突与业绩的双重验证，配置策略建议兼顾低波动防御与业绩确定性，从而在不确定性中挖掘确定性机会。　　大势层面，国泰海通策略首席方奕直言“勿自乱阵脚”，中国股市的重要底部与击球点正在出现。稳定是中国经济与股市的底色，中国转型与产业发展能够打破当下弥漫的“滞胀”叙事。市场调整反而是机会，建议积极布局。　　华源证券研究所所长刘晓宁则更加重视风险。他表示，四月份一方面中东地缘政治风险存在进一步升温可能，或带来显著外部扰动，从中东地区长期历史脉络以及现实格局来看，不建议将短期内（尤其是四月份）冲突缓和作为基准假设，建议更加注重底线思维；另一方面，在全球资本市场承压背景下，国内宏观叙事成为影响市场方向的关键力量，而流动性则或将继续影响市场的波动幅度。　　长城证券首席经济学家汪毅亦表示，展望4月，中东地缘局势僵持不下，海外市场是否再度出现“TACO交易”仍未可知，短期来看市场仍存在震荡风险，市场风险偏好较难出现整体修复。　　他指出，上证指数经历近两个月的震荡后，4000点成为重要心理关口，市场可能在此附近震荡筑底，成长板块整体再度上攻仍需要等待整体流动性环境的改善，也需观察市场成交金额是否出现企稳向上的信号。　　“但是对于4月走势不必过度担忧。短期来看，虽然影响市场风险偏好的地缘等因素可能仍存在，但基本面和政策端均对股市形成支撑。”汪毅称。　　配置方面，卖方机构的策略首席尤其强调“确定性”，建议当前时点重点关注防御型板块，景气度确定性强、具有超跌反弹机会的成长板块，以及在财报密集发布期关注业绩方面带来的个股布局机会。　　国金证券策略首席牟一凌从较为宏观的视角推荐了三方面主线，一是在全球动荡的格局下能源安全变得尤为重要，但今年一次能源强于二次能源建设，首推原油、油运、煤炭、铜、铝、金、橡胶；二是中国制造业才是全球压舱石，只是实物流动慢于金融资产流动，等待重估的到来——电力设备新能源、机械设备、化工；三是压制因素扭转下寻找消费的结构性机会——旅游及景区、调味发酵品、啤酒及其他酒类、医药商业、医美等。　　国盛证券策略首席杨柳则给出了更为详细的投资建议。他表示，适当调降仓位或增加低波防御性仓位的配比仍是应对波动放大的重要抓手，优先关注在盈利模式和股息回报上具备相对确定性的银行、电力等。　　另外，伴随财报季开启，业绩定价权重抬升，进攻性仓位也宜向具备业绩验证能力的方向集中，一是当前业绩具备较强确定性且仍维持在上行趋势中的通信设备、元件、电网设备、电子化学品等；二是能源替代预期叠加外需景气验证的新能源方向，如锂电储能、风电、光伏等。（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2625698824","isCrawlerRequest":true}