科技股跌出“黄金坑”？高盛：数十年来罕见的买入机会来了

FX168全球投资04-08

高盛认为，眼下美股科技股正出现一个罕见的买入机会。目前，科技股相对于整体市场的表现，正经历近半个世纪以来最糟糕的一段时期。高盛首席全球股票策略师彼得·奥本海默领导的团队指出，随着股市上涨的推动力越来越多地来自科技板块以外的国家、行业和风格因子，投资者如今面临的，反而可能是数十年来买入遭受重创科技股的最佳时机。高盛表示：“美国股市从相对角度看，已经不再那么昂贵。尽管经历了一轮调整，但其盈利表现依然...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2625678619?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-04-08 07:50","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2625678619","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"科技股跌出“黄金坑”？高盛：数十年来罕见的买入机会来了","media":"FX168全球投资","content":"<div>\n<p>高盛认为，眼下美股科技股正出现一个罕见的买入机会。目前，科技股相对于整体市场的表现，正经历近半个世纪以来最糟糕的一段时期。高盛首席全球股票策略师彼得·奥本海默领导的团队指出，随着股市上涨的推动力越来越多地来自科技板块以外的国家、行业和风格因子，投资者如今面临的，反而可能是数十年来买入遭受重创科技股的最佳时机。高盛表示：“美国股市从相对角度看，已经不再那么昂贵。尽管经历了一轮调整，但其盈利表现依然...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2026/04/08075056660603.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"jinrongjie_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科技股跌出“黄金坑”？高盛：数十年来罕见的买入机会来了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技股跌出“黄金坑”？高盛：数十年来罕见的买入机会来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-08 07:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2026/04/08075056660603.shtml><strong>FX168全球投资</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为，眼下美股科技股正出现一个罕见的买入机会。目前，科技股相对于整体市场的表现，正经历近半个世纪以来最糟糕的一段时期。高盛首席全球股票策略师彼得·奥本海默领导的团队指出，随着股市上涨的推动力越来越多地来自科技板块以外的国家、行业和风格因子，投资者如今面临的，反而可能是数十年来买入遭受重创科技股的最佳时机。高盛表示：“美国股市从相对角度看，已经不再那么昂贵。尽管经历了一轮调整，但其盈利表现依然...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2026/04/08075056660603.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SGOL","symbol_name":"Abrdn Gold ETF Trust","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2026/04/08075056660603.shtml","article_id":"2625678619","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625678619","pubTimestamp":1775605845,"columns":[{"name":"黄金","id":5,"label_key":null}],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"jinrongjie_highlight","name":"金融界"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"高盛认为，眼下美股科技股正出现一个罕见的买入机会。如今，科技板块的PEG比率已经低于全球整体市场，这被高盛视为一个新的“估值吸引力”信号。高盛表示，只有在信贷环境遭遇严重冲击，或者超大规模科技公司的收入显著下滑时，这轮资本开支才可能真正受到威胁。高盛团队同时重申，他们并不担心当前科技股处于泡沫状态。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"jrj.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","SGOL":"Abrdn Gold ETF Trust","FGDL":"FRANKLIN RESPONSIBLY SOURCED GOLD ETF","GDXU":"MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN","XLK":"高科技指数ETF-SPDR","GBUG":"Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","IAUI":"NEOS Gold High Income ETF","GLTR":"abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF","GDXY":"YieldMax Gold Miners Option Income Strategy ETF","IAUM":"ISHARES GOLD TRUST MICRO","BEGS":"RAREVIEW 2X BULL CRYPTOCURRENCY & PRECIOUS METALS ETF","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","USG":"USCF Gold Strategy Plus Income Fund","DZZ":"德银黄金两倍做空ETN","BTGD":"STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF","PICK":"iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","JNUG":"金矿指数二倍做多ETF","XME":"金属与采矿指数ETF-SPDR","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","RING":"iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF","GLL":"2倍做空黄金ETF-ProShares","DBC":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares DB","BAR":"GraniteShares Gold Shares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","JDST":"金矿指数二倍做空ETF","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","PHYS":"Sprott Physical Gold Trust","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","AAAU":"Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF","DULL":"MICROSECTORS GOLD -3X INVERSE LEVERAGED ETN","GLDM":"SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust","PALL":"abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF","GDXD":"MicroSectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN","VGT":"信息技术ETF-Vanguard","CEF":"Sprott Physical Gold & Silver Trust","DGP":"二倍做多黄金ETN(PowerShares)","GDXJ":"小型黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)","OUNZ":"VanEck Merk黄金股票基金"},"translate_title":"Tech Stocks Falling Out of the \"Golden Pit\"? Goldman Sachs: Rare buying opportunity in decades is here","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d3a074308280b77567cc32727e3d6bc","symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"AAAU":1.5,"DGP":1.5,"BTGD":1.5,"GDXJ":1.5,"GBUG":1.5,"UGL":1.5,"DULL":1.5,"PICK":1.5,"GDX":1.5,"GCmain":1.5,"GLD":0.6,"GLDM":1.5,"GLTR":1.5,"FGDL":1.5,"1OZmain":1.5,"SGCmain":0.6,"IAUI":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"BAR":1.5,"GDXU":1.5,"DUST":1.5,"GDXY":1.5,"OUNZ":1.5,"PALL":1.5,"03086":1.5,"MGCmain":1.5,"IAUM":1.5,"QOmain":1.5,"JDST":1.5,"JNUG":1.5,"TTTN":1.5,"VGT":1.5,"CEF":1.5,"NUGT":0.6,"SGOL":1.5,"DZZ":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"GDXD":1.5,"USG":1.5,"SGUmain":0.6,"RING":1.5,"PHYS":1.5,"GLL":1.5,"BEGS":1.5,"XME":1.5,"XLK":1.5},"content_text":"高盛认为，眼下美股科技股正出现一个罕见的买入机会。目前，科技股相对于整体市场的表现，正经历近半个世纪以来最糟糕的一段时期。高盛首席全球股票策略师彼得·奥本海默领导的团队指出，随着股市上涨的推动力越来越多地来自科技板块以外的国家、行业和风格因子，投资者如今面临的，反而可能是数十年来买入遭受重创科技股的最佳时机。高盛表示：“美国股市从相对角度看，已经不再那么昂贵。尽管经历了一轮调整，但其盈利表现依然强劲。”例如，该团队指出，美国市场与全球其他地区之间的PEG估值差距已经出现明显重置。所谓PEG，即市盈率相对于未来几年盈利增长预期的比率。此前多年，由于“美国例外论”叙事持续主导市场，美股估值与全球其他市场持续脱钩。如今，科技板块的PEG比率已经低于全球整体市场，这被高盛视为一个新的“估值吸引力”信号。更值得注意的是，目前市场对科技板块的悲观程度，已经使其滚动PEG隐含出“未来盈利将明显走弱”的预期，而这一水平甚至低到了2003年至2005年科技泡沫破裂后低谷时期的程度。导致科技股承压的因素包括：市场对超大规模云计算公司资本开支持续增加的担忧，以及AI技术冲击之下软件股和部分科技企业面临的重估压力。与此同时，投资者开始重新追捧那些长期被忽视的“旧经济”公司，例如能源、基础资源、化工、医疗保健和工业类股票。高盛策略师认为，这些板块估值上升有其合理性，但科技股遭受的惩罚却明显过度，尤其是在盈利增长依然强劲的背景下。例如，亚马逊和Alphabet等超大市值科技公司的估值，如今已接近标普500指数其他成分股的平均水平。高盛指出：“从全球范围看，信息技术板块当前的市盈率已经低于可选消费、必需消费和工业板块。与多数行业不同的是，科技股相对于历史水平的估值溢价也已大幅下降。”即便市场担心资本开支上升、未来投资回报下降，但这些科技股的股本回报率依然处于高位，且盈利预期调整比任何其他行业都更为积极。结果就是，科技板块的股价表现与其基础盈利增长之间，形成了创纪录的背离。高盛表示，只有在信贷环境遭遇严重冲击，或者超大规模科技公司的收入显著下滑时，这轮资本开支才可能真正受到威胁。但到目前为止，分析师对于这些投资最终将带来多大盈利提振的预估，反而在最近几周进一步上升。高盛团队同时重申，他们并不担心当前科技股处于泡沫状态。他们指出，无论是与2000年科技泡沫高点相比，还是与上世纪70年代“Nifty Fifty”泡沫破裂前的水平相比，当前科技股估值都要低得多。而且，与过去泡沫时期不同的是，当前市场并未出现大量科技企业集中IPO的现象。未来即将上市的科技公司，反而更可能为投资者提供在板块内部做出更细致区分的依据。此外，高盛还指出，伊朗战争实际上又为买入科技股提供了一个额外理由。该行认为，霍尔木兹海峡航运中断持续时间越长，市场越可能担忧经济增长受损，而这种“增长冲击”反而可能限制利率进一步上行。奥本海默及其团队表示，考虑到科技板块现金流对经济增长的相对敏感度较低，同时若债券收益率回落，该板块还将明显受益，因此未来几个月科技股甚至可能展现出比市场预期更强的防御属性。\n\n美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\r\n            责任编辑：栎树","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2625678619","isCrawlerRequest":true}