一年成交千亿元，工厂排单已到2030年，电商平台“押注”潮玩

第一财经04-08

一款Labubu的爆火一度将泡泡玛特推上4500亿元市值高峰，但在“超级爆款”降温后，市值随之腰斩。尽管市场充满了挑战，但如何让潮玩成为下一个“风口”赛道，正成为从业者共同思考的目标。　　“接下来，行业将迎来5-10 年左右的高速增长期。”2026年淘天玩具潮玩行业大会上，淘天集团玩具潮玩行业负责人蕴皆（花名）在接受包括第一财经在内的媒体采访时表示，过去一年，淘宝天猫平台盲盒、“三坑”（汉服、...

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年左右的高速增长期。”2026年淘天玩具潮玩行业大会上，淘天集团玩具潮玩行业负责人蕴皆（花名）在接受包括第一财经在内的媒体采访时表示，过去一年，淘宝天猫平台盲盒、“三坑”（汉服、...</p>\n\n<a 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制服）、娃圈等核心类目同比增长超过50%，2025年淘天玩具潮玩行业成交额已接近1000亿元。　　今年3月，淘天玩具潮玩行业将潮流毛绒和拼搭玩具从传统大类中剥离，升级为一级类目。记者了解到，目前淘宝天猫毛绒品类中18至29岁的用户成交占比超45%，此外，30岁至39岁用户也是购买自用玩具的一大客群，两部分人群的消费在毛绒市场需求中占比接近70%。　　毛绒玩具的价格带也在迅速拉升。蕴皆提到，伴随着泡泡玛特等品牌的走红，目前许多品质化的包挂已冲上90元、100元价位，而五年前，毛绒玩具的核心价位带才19.9元。　　中国玩具和婴童用品协会发布的《2026年中国玩具和婴童用品行业发展白皮书》显示，2025年，玩具（不含潮玩）国内市场零售总额为1035.3亿元，同比增长5.8%；潮流与收藏玩具零售总额为676.9亿元，同比增长达到45.4%。通过IP授权的快车道和供应链端的中心化升级，不少国产玩具在过去几年实现了快速破圈和品质提升，潮玩更成为其中高速增长的细分类目。　　嗅到了机会的电商平台正在加大对潮玩的押注。　　蕴皆透露，十年前，潮玩还只有玩具十分之一的体量，不受管理层关注，但到去年年底，从支付的维度来讲，潮玩和玩具已经是1：1的趋势了。数据显示，2025年，淘宝天猫玩具潮玩行业新增用户近1亿，其中24岁以下年轻用户增长超1000万。　　潮玩与娱乐、游戏、赛事等产业的加速融合是整体趋势。数据显示，去年一年，潮玩盲盒、游戏电竞实物周边及衍生周边是淘天潮玩体量排名前三的细分类目，整个潮玩行业正在呈现泛娱乐、从核心二次元到泛二次元再到兴趣圈层的跨界趋势。　　但在持续的增长下，潮玩继续“拓圈”的压力不小。淘天集团潮玩行业负责人摧城（花名）预测，在过去几年的高速增长过后，衍生周边潮玩的增速将放缓，今年的增量预计不如去年，而盲盒和游戏周边、明星相关盲盒的供给正在迅速增长，预计将继续保持高增。　　此外，一个玩具产品从出生到最后出清的生命周期通常是9个月，无论是对品牌还是行业来说，对爆品、优质供给的焦虑始终存在。　　“潮玩的供给一直是缺的，泡泡玛特一旦要赶货，它会把所有手办供给吃掉。”摧城表示，尽管整个潮玩行业的工厂工业设备体量在增加，但除了头部、腰部工厂，许多工厂没有做真正的供应链升级。在潮玩对开模、设计、上色的高要求下，一些头部工厂的排单已经排到了2030年，而许多工厂还没有达到能做潮玩的工艺。　　在这个充满新奇与新增想象的赛道里，“掘金”的可能性正在加速打开，但行业仍需保持谨慎乐观。（文章来源：第一财经）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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