国盛证券：鞋服2025年稳健增长长期赛道投资价值高

智通财经04-01

智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，截至2025年末各运动品牌渠道库销比基本在4-5个月左右，渠道库存质量健康。2026年以来随着公司推进春节假期营销和产品上新，该行判断Q1整体表现保持稳健增长态势。推荐奥运周期有望迎来品牌力提升的李宁(02331)，集团化运营能力卓越的运动鞋服板块优质标的安踏体育(02020)，关注特步国际(01368)、361度(01361)。国盛证券主要观点如下：...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1423790.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，截至2025年末各运动品牌渠道库销比基本在4-5个月左右，渠道库存质量健康。2026年以来随着公司推进春节假期营销和产品上新，该行判断Q1整体表现保持稳健增长态势。推荐奥运周期有望迎来品牌力提升的李宁(02331)，集团化运营能力卓越的运动鞋服板块优质标的安踏体育(02020)，关注特步国际(01368)、361度(01361)。国盛证券主要观点如下：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1423790.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0052750758.USD","symbol_name":"富兰克林中国基金A 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high","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82020":0.6,"82331":0.6,"02020":0.9,"01368":0.9,"002670":1.5,"LNNGY":0.6,"ANPDY":0.6,"02331":0.9,"01361":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，截至2025年末各运动品牌渠道库销比基本在4-5个月左右，渠道库存质量健康。2026年以来随着公司推进春节假期营销和产品上新，该行判断Q1整体表现保持稳健增长态势。推荐奥运周期有望迎来品牌力提升的李宁(02331)，集团化运营能力卓越的运动鞋服板块优质标的安踏体育(02020)，关注特步国际(01368)、361度(01361)。国盛证券主要观点如下：2025年回顾：基本面稳健增长，库存管理持续优化2025年安踏体育营收/剔除2024年一次性利得后归母净利润同比分别+13.3%/+13.9%至802.2亿元/135.9亿元，李宁营收同比分别+3.2%至296.0亿元，特步国际营收/归母净利润同比分别+4.2%/+10.8%至141.5亿元/13.7亿元，361度营收/归母净利润同比分别+10.6%/+14.0%至111.5亿元/13.1亿元，板块公司整体表现稳健。从库存层面来看，该行判断截至2025年末各运动品牌渠道库销比基本在4-5个月左右，渠道库存质量健康。从估值层面来看，目前板块整体估值水平仍处于过去2-3年中枢位置，安踏体育/李宁/特步国际/361度对应2026年PE分别为12x/17x/9x/8x，2026年以来随着国家政策的持续刺激以及居民消费信心回升，板块估值仍有上升空间。运营趋势分析：板块公司着力于产品力提升、渠道端运营改善、营销推广抢占消费者心智1)产品端：各品牌以跑步产品为核心，依托前沿科技平台推动产品迭代，李宁2025年推出中底科技“超胶囊”，特步推出160X 7.0系列助力运动员打破国家纪录;在跑步产品之外，品牌公司继续完善户外产品矩阵，拓宽增长动能。2)渠道端：在门店数量稳定的基础上(截至2025年末安踏/Fila/李宁/特步/361度门店数量为9855/2040/7609/7845/9011家)，各品牌推动差异化业态创新与单店运营效率提升，安踏竞技场旗舰店月均店效超300万，361度全国累计落成127家超品店，李宁探索龙店新店型，特步国际强化奥莱渠道布局。3)营销端：各公司立足核心运动品类深化赛事资源布局，同时重视品牌层面的大赛营销，李宁赞助中国奥委会有望持续提升品牌影响力，安踏为国家队提供专业装备，为品牌科技属性背书，361度连续蝉联亚运会赞助合作伙伴，为海外业务扩张奠定基础，特步国际继续发力跑步赛道，巩固竞争护城河。展望2026年：板块需求韧性仍在，标的公司提质增效核心逻辑一方面在于居民消费信心处于逐步复苏阶段，政策持续刺激效果有望逐步显现;另一方面随着运动群体扩大，消费者对功能性服饰的偏好有望延续。综合考虑基数因素及消费复苏节奏，该行预计2026年增速或呈现前低后高的趋势。从业绩层面来看，不考虑一次性利得因素当前该行预计安踏体育2026年归母净利润增长3%至140.53亿元，预计特步国际2026年归母净利润下降8.1%至12.6亿元，预计361度2026年归母净利润增长11.1%至14.6亿元。风险提示：消费环境波动风险，门店扩张不及预期，电商业务建设不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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国盛证券：鞋服2025年稳健增长 长期赛道投资价值高

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国盛证券：鞋服2025年稳健增长长期赛道投资价值高