美伊战事“急踩刹车”，金价涨破4700！这波行情能走多远？

格隆汇04-01

4月1日，全球金融市场迎来了大转折。现货黄金持续上扬，盘中再度涨破4700美元关口，最高报4724.260美元/盎司。截至目前有所回落，报4686.27美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货同步上涨，报4728.80美元/盎司，日内涨超1%。港股市场中，灵宝黄金、潼关黄金双双涨超10%领涨黄金及贵金属板块，珠峰黄金涨超8%，紫金黄金国际、大唐黄金、龙资源涨超5%，紫金矿业、集海黄金、赤峰黄金、招金矿业跟涨...

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How far can this wave go?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DGP":1.5,"DZZ":1.5,"GLL":1.5,"IAUI":1.5,"JNUG":1.5,"UGL":1.5,"JDST":1.5,"GDXJ":1.5,"GDXU":1.5,"GDXY":1.5,"PHYS":1.5,"BTGD":1.5,"GDX":1.5,"GLTR":1.5,"USG":1.5,"02489":0.9,"AAAU":1.5,"01712":0.9,"02259":0.9,"GLDM":1.5,"SGOL":1.5,"00340":0.9,"MGCmain":1.5,"06693":0.9,"01815":0.9,"GDXD":1.5,"02899":0.9,"08299":0.9,"OUNZ":1.5,"DUST":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"03330":0.9,"IAUM":1.5,"PALL":1.5,"CEF":1.5},"content_text":"4月1日，全球金融市场迎来了大转折。现货黄金持续上扬，盘中再度涨破4700美元关口，最高报4724.260美元/盎司。截至目前有所回落，报4686.27美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货同步上涨，报4728.80美元/盎司，日内涨超1%。港股市场中，灵宝黄金、潼关黄金双双涨超10%领涨黄金及贵金属板块，珠峰黄金涨超8%，紫金黄金国际、大唐黄金、龙资源涨超5%，紫金矿业、集海黄金、赤峰黄金、招金矿业跟涨。消息面上，美伊双方释放停战意愿。伊朗表示愿意结束战争，特朗普也称将在“两到三周”内结束战事。美联储主席鲍威尔明确表态倾向于维持利率不变、暂时“忽略”能源冲击，市场对加息的预期显著降温。短期来看，黄金恐慌抛售已止，抄底资金与央行增持将为金价提供支撑。美伊释放停战信号昨夜，美伊双方释放了停战意愿。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，伊朗有结束战争的“必要意愿”，前提是对方满足伊方诉求，特别是作出不再侵略的必要保证。佩泽希齐扬指出，伊朗曾带着诚意和建设性态度进入与美国的谈判，但在谈判中途遭到非法袭击。这一问题证明，美国不相信外交，而仅仅是在“寻求发号施令以实现其贪婪企图”。与此同时，美国总统特朗普3月31日在白宫签署一项行政令时表示，美国可能会在两到三周内结束对伊朗的军事行动。“我们很快就要撤离了，我认为大概两到三周。我们会离开，因为我们没有理由继续这样做。”特朗普表示，他只有一个目标，就是伊朗不能拥有核武器，而这个目标已经达成。如果与伊朗达成协议，或许会更早结束战事。但美国不与伊朗达成协议也可以结束战事。“如果他们愿意坐下来谈，那很好。但他们来不来都无所谓”。双方态度的软化，更是缓解了市场对霍尔木兹海峡封锁升级的担忧，也成为贵金属反弹、油价回落的核心导火索。除此之外，美联储主席鲍威尔在哈佛大学的公开课交流中明确表示，面对中东局势引发的能源冲击，美联储倾向于维持利率不变，采取“暂时忽略”这一冲击的态度。他还强调，从历史经验看能源冲击通常是短暂的，央行标准应对方式是“耐心等待其自行消退”。最新货币市场定价显示，交易员对今年美联储加息的预期有所降温，并预期今年降息的可能性增大。CME美联储观察工具显示，4月加息概率已降至2.6%左右，对黄金构成直接利好。牛市下半场开启？就在几天前，黄金市场还一片哀嚎。3月，现货黄金从4900美元高位一路狂泻，最低触及4100美元附近 ，单月暴跌超11% ，创下近18年（2008年金融危机）以来最惨烈单月跌幅；COMEX黄金同样跌幅显著，3月累计下跌21.41%。不过，面对金价的剧烈波动，市场普遍认可央行购金对金价的核心支撑作用。世界黄金协会数据显示，2026年3月全球央行已实现连续19个月净买入黄金，2025年全年净购金量达863吨，位列历史第二高位。即便在3月金价暴跌期间，各国央行也没有大规模抛售，反而延续了增持节奏。中国央行连续18个月增持黄金，储备量突破了2500吨。乌兹别克斯坦、马来西亚、印尼、捷克等新兴市场国家也在持续买入，马来西亚更是在今年1月重启了2018年以来的首次增持。展望未来，高盛认为，黄金此次下跌\"已明显超调\"，市场高估了通胀，而低估了增长下行；随着价格趋稳，预计央行的购金行为将重新提速，月均采购量约为60吨；叠加今年有望再降息两次，维持2026年底金价目标价5400美元/盎司。华侨银行策略师Christopher Wong表示，如果地缘政治紧张局势进一步缓和，那么市场对美联储放宽货币政策的预期就可能回归。在这种情况下，实际收益率有望下降，从而为金价提供支撑。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2624661775","isCrawlerRequest":true}