小摩拉响警报：油价Q2或站稳100美元上方，若供应中断持续至5月中旬将冲破150美元

智通财经04-03

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通周四在一份报告中表示，短期内油价可能飙升至每桶120至130美元;如果通过霍尔木兹海峡的供应流持续中断至5月中旬，则油价存在突破150美元的风险。摩根大通的基准情景假设是，在经历一段时间的供应紧张和库存下降之后，霍尔木兹海峡的中断最终将通过谈判得到解决。在这一情景下，预计油价将在第二季度维持在每桶100美元以上的高位。报告补充称，随着海峡部分重新开放以及石油库存出现一定...

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$150","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6159f9d9fcdee396b7fb936c86588bba","symbols_score_info":{"OILT":1.5,"ERX":1.5,"JPMO":0.6,"OILU":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"DBO":1.5,"OIH":1.5,"DUG":1.5,"VDE":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通周四在一份报告中表示，短期内油价可能飙升至每桶120至130美元;如果通过霍尔木兹海峡的供应流持续中断至5月中旬，则油价存在突破150美元的风险。摩根大通的基准情景假设是，在经历一段时间的供应紧张和库存下降之后，霍尔木兹海峡的中断最终将通过谈判得到解决。在这一情景下，预计油价将在第二季度维持在每桶100美元以上的高位。报告补充称，随着海峡部分重新开放以及石油库存出现一定程度的恢复正常，预计油价将在2026年下半年回落。摩根大通警告称，任何价格飙升的幅度和持续时间，将成为决定更广泛宏观经济冲击严重程度的关键因素。如果高油价持续存在，将提高需求受抑以及潜在经济衰退的风险。本周早些时候，能源市场咨询公司FGE NexantECA同样称，如果由于中东战争导致霍尔木兹海峡近乎关闭的局面持续六到八周，油价可能会飙升至每桶150或200美元。该公司名誉主席Fereidun Fesharaki周二在接受采访时表示：“每周有1亿桶石油无法流通，每月有4亿桶石油无法流通。因此，在一段时间内，这些损失将给市场带来天文数字般的影响。”高盛指出，短期内，只要霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输仍然受限，油价就可能继续上涨。高盛补充道，如果中断风险持续存在，布伦特原油价格可能超过2008年的峰值——布伦特原油曾在2008年达到每桶147.5美元，创下历史高位。美国银行的态度更为悲观。该行分析师预计，由于中东战争的影响，即便冲突在几周内结束，全年仍将面临经济增长放缓、通胀上升以及每桶100美元的油价。该行经济学家预测，2026年美国经济增长将受到50个基点的冲击，降至2.3%。目前的预测显示，2026年的头条通胀率(Headline inflation)将达到3.6%，高于此前预测的2.8%。在全球范围内，经济学家也将GDP预测下调至3.1%，并将通胀预期上调至3.3%。美银经济学家写道：“这与滞胀冲击的特征相吻合。基于我们新的基准假设，即油价在2026年余下时间里保持在每桶100美元左右，这种冲击对通胀的影响将比对GDP增长的影响更早且更显著。”特朗普近日关于将在未来两到三周内对伊朗进行“极其猛烈的打击”的言论打击了市场对中东战事有望快速解决的希望，并推动油价在周四跳涨。与此同时，尽管特朗普在讲话中称战争结束后“霍尔木兹海峡将自然开放”，但他没有提供具体如何实现的细节。而该海峡何时重新开放的时间表正是当下投资者的关注焦点。不过，已有霍尔木兹海峡可能部分通航的大消息传出。据报道，伊朗与阿曼正在起草一项协议，旨在对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只运输实施“通行监管”，但同时强调不会限制船只通行。市场认为，阿曼方面的相关进展带来了新的希望，即霍尔木兹海峡或可在不依赖军事手段的情况下，部分恢复通航。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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