毕马威首席经济学家警告：伊朗战争正推高全球滞胀风险，“深度衰退”或成唯一出路

FX168全球投资04-03

KPMG (毕马威)首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，随着伊朗战争不断抬升全球经济的滞胀风险，一场“深度衰退”可能成为唯一明确的出路。#伊朗危机追踪#所谓“滞胀”，指的是高通胀长期持续、同时经济增长乏力的危险组合。在Swonk看来，这种局面甚至可能比普通衰退更糟，因为在这种环境下，美联储很难舒适地向任一方向调整利率。Swonk指出，伊朗战争已经引发了多重供应冲击，导致产品短缺和价格上涨。而在...

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Swonk表示，随着伊朗战争不断抬升全球经济的滞胀风险，一场“深度衰退”可能成为唯一明确的出路。#伊朗危机追踪#所谓“滞胀”，指的是高通胀长期持续、同时经济增长乏力的危险组合。在Swonk看来，这种局面甚至可能比普通衰退更糟，因为在这种环境下，美联储很难舒适地向任一方向调整利率。Swonk指出，伊朗战争已经引发了多重供应冲击，导致产品短缺和价格上涨。而在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2026/04/03074856608843.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TLTW","symbol_name":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2026/04/03074856608843.shtml","article_id":"2624633477","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624633477","pubTimestamp":1775173718,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"jinrongjie_highlight","name":"金融界"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"KPMG (毕马威)首席经济学家Diane 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Swonk表示，随着伊朗战争不断抬升全球经济的滞胀风险，一场“深度衰退”可能成为唯一明确的出路。#伊朗危机追踪#所谓“滞胀”，指的是高通胀长期持续、同时经济增长乏力的危险组合。在Swonk看来，这种局面甚至可能比普通衰退更糟，因为在这种环境下，美联储很难舒适地向任一方向调整利率。Swonk指出，伊朗战争已经引发了多重供应冲击，导致产品短缺和价格上涨。而在滞胀的另一面，她认为劳动力市场也正变得更加脆弱，失业率存在上升风险。她写道：“唯一明确的出路是一场深度衰退。”她同时指出，这种情形更可能首先发生在美国以外的经济体，但对美国而言也依然构成现实风险。供应冲击正在把全球经济推向滞胀Swonk表示，霍尔木兹海峡关闭以及由此引发的油价飙升，“不仅仅是一场石油冲击”。她认为，当前局势对全球经济的影响，甚至可能超过历史上的传统石油危机。她指出，霍尔木兹海峡不仅是全球石油贸易的关键咽喉，同时也是氦气、化肥等其他关键经济投入品的重要运输通道。在这种背景下，企业面临的成本全面上升，而这往往会推高商品价格，并削弱企业招聘意愿，最终冲击就业市场。Swonk写道：“成本高到足以一方面推动由成本驱动的涨价，另一方面又让企业变得更不愿意招聘。”她还指出：“由于工资具有粘性，在物价上升背景下工资并不会轻易下降，因此企业往往会转向裁减员工数量，不得不进行被动裁员。”也就是说，价格上涨与就业恶化可能同步发生，而这种组合正是滞胀风险的核心特征。美联储陷入比2025年更棘手的两难局面通常情况下，当通胀上升或经济增长放缓时，央行会通过调整货币政策进行应对，以平衡经济风险。一般而言，美联储会在增长疲弱、就业承压时选择降息，以刺激经济活动；而在通胀高企时，则会通过加息抑制价格上涨。但Swonk认为，如今传统政策剧本已经不再奏效，因为当前问题主要来自供给侧，而不是需求侧。若降息，可能进一步加剧通胀；若加息，则可能伤害增长。她表示：“这将使美联储陷入比2025年更糟糕的困境，因为其稳定物价和实现充分就业的双重使命正彼此冲突。”加息概率上升，市场与机构分歧扩大随着局势恶化，投资者对美联储今年降息的预期已明显发生变化，市场正逐步减少对降息的押注。Swonk也认同这一方向。她表示：“下半年加息变得越来越可能，我认为美联储最终将被迫这样做，其他主要央行也会面临类似选择。”换言之，在供应冲击主导、通胀韧性增强的背景下，央行可能不得不优先应对价格风险，即使这会令经济增长和就业承受更大压力。不过，高盛对此持不同意见。该行反驳了加息前景，认为尽管投资者预期已发生变化，但2026年降息仍不太可能被彻底排除。\n\n美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\r\n 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