大超预期！美国3月ADP新增6.2万人，降息预期再降温

格隆汇04-01

周三，ADP数据显示，美国3月ADP就业人数增加6.2万人，高于市场预期的4万人，较上月的6.3万人大致持平。就业数据公布后，美元指数短线波动不大，美股三大股指皆上涨。现货黄金短线小幅走低后反弹。教育医疗与建筑业几乎包揽全部增长与2月份的报告类似，两个行业基本贡献了全部就业增长。教育及医疗服务行业新增5.8万人，与2月数据完全一致；建筑业新增3万人。上月医疗服务就业增长曾受凯撒医疗集团罢工事件拖累...

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US March ADP Added 62,000 People, Rate Cut Expectation Cooled Again","themeId":"1fc63ca0de09d40058b64e0ffa98e180","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ADP":1.5},"content_text":"周三，ADP数据显示，美国3月ADP就业人数增加6.2万人，高于市场预期的4万人，较上月的6.3万人大致持平。就业数据公布后，美元指数短线波动不大，美股三大股指皆上涨。现货黄金短线小幅走低后反弹。教育医疗与建筑业几乎包揽全部增长与2月份的报告类似，两个行业基本贡献了全部就业增长。教育及医疗服务行业新增5.8万人，与2月数据完全一致；建筑业新增3万人。上月医疗服务就业增长曾受凯撒医疗集团罢工事件拖累，该事件已得到解决，此前导致夏威夷和加州超3万名员工停工。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示：“我们已连续两个月实现较为稳健的就业增长，但大部分增长都集中在医疗行业。这才是核心趋势，医疗行业正在重塑劳动力市场。”其他行业中，信息服务业新增1.6万人，自然资源与采矿业新增1.1万人，休闲和酒店业新增7000 人。就业下滑领域中，贸易、运输及公用事业减少5.8万人，制造业减少1.1万人。在以服务业为主导的经济格局下，3月就业创造出现罕见的均衡态势：商品生产行业新增3万人，服务业新增3.2万人。雇员少于50人的小企业在招聘中占据主导地位，新增8.5万个就业岗位；中型企业减少2万个岗位；拥有500名及以上雇员的大型企业减少4000个岗位。薪资方面，在岗员工薪资涨幅稳定在4.5%，跳槽者薪资涨幅为6.6%，较2月份上升0.3个百分点。降息预期再降温美国财经网站investinglive分析师就ADP数据表示，在经历一段疲弱后，数据连续两次尚可表现。新增6.2万个就业岗位虽称不上强劲，但在一定程度上缓解了美联储就业目标方面的压力，并使其更倾向于维持利率不变或考虑加息。据CME“美联储观察”，美联储4月加息25个基点的概率为0.5%，维持利率不变的概率为99.5%。美联储到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为0.5%，维持利率不变的概率为94%，累计加息25个基点的概率为5.6%。当前，市场焦点已转向非农就业报告。分析师普遍预期，随着2月份罢工和恶劣天气等临时性因素的消退，整体就业数据有望进一步回暖。道明证券策略师分析称，如果周五公布的美国非农就业人数数据差于预期，可能会引发市场对美联储降息预期的重估，从而导致美元短线走弱。不过，鉴于当前中东局势充满不确定性，地缘政治风险仍将是影响市场情绪的关键变量，单一就业报告可能难以完全扭转市场对美元的避险需求。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2624517992","isCrawlerRequest":true}