关于达拉斯联储主席洛根的讲话和美式降准喊话

格隆汇04-04

引子2026年4月2日的美股比较奇怪，纳斯达克指数先是因为“特朗普公开讲话不及预期”而大幅低开低走，之后纳指因为某个因素X快速拉升，最终，纳指收涨0.18%。那么，这个x因素到底是什么呢？？是达拉斯联储行长洛里·洛根的一份演讲。在这份演讲中，洛根阐述了美国央行缩减资产负债表规模的路径与备选方案，她指出当前机制运行良好，且有益于整体金融稳定。她的核心观点在于：美国央行可以通过调整监管规则，降低银行对...

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Reverse Repurchase Account（隔夜逆回购账户））已经空了，美联储已经实质性地进入“稀缺准备金体系”。然而，即将上任的美联储主席沃什要进一步推进美联储缩表，这该怎么办呢？？于是，洛根抛出来一个方案：调整监管规则，降低银行体系对准备金的需求。事实上，这个方案类似于我们体系中的降准，只不过美国的准备金率已经降低到零了。在《关于双约束流动性控制体系和美元流动性的拐点》一文中，我们曾经提出一个分析框架——双约束流动性体系。如上图所示，洛根的任务是在不减少RRP账户余额的基础上缩减美联储资产负债表的规模。于是，方案就变成了，协调收缩准备金的供需两端：1、让准备金的需求曲线从D1缩减到D2；2、美联储资产负债表的规模从S1缩减到S2。然而，真正的关键点在于如何缩减准备金的需求上，如上图所示，准备金的需求有两个因子，1、银行资产负债表规模；2、银行准备金使用效率。显而易见，沃什、米兰以及大多数投资者的方案是缩减银行资产负债表规模，这对金融体系有强烈地紧缩效应（ps：这类方案属于“准备金稀缺框架”）；然而，洛根钻了个空子，她说我们可以提高银行准备金的使用效率啊，虽然准备金率降低到零了，但是其他监管因子依旧在制造摩擦。譬如，她在这次演讲中所提到的招数就是——扩大金融机构获取美联储流动性工具的渠道。不难发现，洛根的思路是个好思路，不过真正的难点有两个：1、银行体系还有多少优化准备金使用效率的空间；2、各类降低准备金需求的举措是否会带来未知的风险；结束语综上所述，通过“特朗普制造冲击，洛根化解冲击”的过程，以及拆解洛根的思路，我们就能对美国的“准备金充裕体系”有更深刻的理解。事实上，洛根的这份讲话还有一个暗示：美联储再次缩减资产负债表不可避免。当然，这背后的路径有很多种，既有激进的（ps：“准备金稀缺框架”下的），也有柔和的（ps：“准备金充裕框架”下的）。最后，对于不求甚解的朋友来说，整个故事可以简化为：特朗普放了大家鸽子，市场恐慌情绪蔓延，于是，洛根出来喊话，美联储还有不低的降准空间，最终，市场被哄住了。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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