降息预期卷土重来! 美债交易员们不再赌通胀，转而押注油价将拖垮经济

智通财经04-01

智通财经APP获悉，随着中东紧张局势推升油价至多年高位，美国债券市场的交易逻辑正发生根本性转向。交易员们纷纷抛弃对通胀回升的押注，转而聚焦高企的能源价格可能对美国乃至全球经济增长造成的冲击。这一情绪转变在利率市场表现得尤为剧烈：就在上周初，期货价格还笃定美联储将在年底前加息;而眼下，利率互换市场反映出的预期已彻底反转——至2026年底累计美联储降息幅度约为6个百分点，相当于市场定价中蕴含着约25%...

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美债交易员们不再赌通胀，转而押注油价将拖垮经济\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-01 07:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1423647.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，随着中东紧张局势推升油价至多年高位，美国债券市场的交易逻辑正发生根本性转向。交易员们纷纷抛弃对通胀回升的押注，转而聚焦高企的能源价格可能对美国乃至全球经济增长造成的冲击。这一情绪转变在利率市场表现得尤为剧烈：就在上周初，期货价格还笃定美联储将在年底前加息;而眼下，利率互换市场反映出的预期已彻底反转——至2026年底累计美联储降息幅度约为6个百分点，相当于市场定价中蕴含着约25%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1423647.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"HYG","symbol_name":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1423647.html","article_id":"2624031554","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624031554","pubTimestamp":1775001298,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"交易员们纷纷抛弃对通胀回升的押注，转而聚焦高企的能源价格可能对美国乃至全球经济增长造成的冲击。早期市场解读认为美联储将不得不加息以遏制预期的通胀反弹，但近来经济增长忧虑已跃居首位，推动美国国债及其他主要经济体主权债掀起一轮涨势。周一5年期国债期货价格上涨时，未平仓合约不减反增。而在曲线的长端，期权溢价仍偏向看跌期权，表明交易员更愿意为长期债券期货的抛售而非上涨支付保险成本。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","USVN":"US TREASURY 7 YEAR NOTE ETF","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","BK4504":"桥水持仓","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","OIH":"石油服务ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","UTHY":"US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UTRE":"US Treasury 3 Year Note ETF","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","UFIV":"US Treasury 5 Year Note ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","OILT":"Texas Oil Index ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","OILU":"MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. 3x Leveraged ETN","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SGOV":"iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF","UTWY":"US Treasury 20 Year Bond ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard"},"translate_title":"Rate Cut Expectations Are Comeback! 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