美银上调芯片设备支出预期应用材料(AMAT.US)与泛林集团(LRCX.US)稳居首选股

智通财经03-31

智通财经APP获悉，应用材料(AMAT.US)和泛林集团(LRCX.US)仍然是美国银行在半导体设备领域的首选股，因为该银行现在认为设备支出将继续增长。“在经历了充满变数的财报季后，我们更新了晶圆制造设备方面的预测。人工智能晶圆需求的扩大促使所有主要半导体公司都指出市场环境异常强劲(前景可观，长达12-24个月)，其中泛林集团(同比增长超过23%)、科磊(KLAC.US)(同比增长接近10%)和...

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Picks","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"LRCU":0.6,"LRCX":1.96,"04336":1.97,"AMAT":1.97},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，应用材料(AMAT.US)和泛林集团(LRCX.US)仍然是美国银行在半导体设备领域的首选股，因为该银行现在认为设备支出将继续增长。“在经历了充满变数的财报季后，我们更新了晶圆制造设备方面的预测。人工智能晶圆需求的扩大促使所有主要半导体公司都指出市场环境异常强劲(前景可观，长达12-24个月)，其中泛林集团(同比增长超过23%)、科磊(KLAC.US)(同比增长接近10%)和应用材料(系统业务同比增长20%)等公司2026年的业绩指引尤为亮眼，这将加速2027年的增长，”分析师Vivek Arya在致客户的报告中写道。Arya目前预计，2026年芯片设备支出将达到1400亿美元，2027年将达到1710亿美元，2028年将达到1930亿美元，而此前的预测分别为1310亿美元、1500亿美元和1550亿美元。他还预计，2029年和2030年的支出水平将分别达到1860亿美元和2010亿美元。Arya补充道：“我们认为，预计2025-2028财年复合年增长率将达到18%，这一行业扩张可能仍受供应限制，但半导体销售额将从2025财年的约7800亿美元增长到2028财年的近1.3万亿美元(复合年增长率17%)，反映出市场保持着健康的增长势头。代理人工智能正在挤压尖端逻辑的产能;需要新增产能。随着XPU/加速器路线图的推进以及代理人工智能的兴起，尖端逻辑的稀缺产能将变得竞争异常激烈。”Arya深入分析后表示，3纳米制程领域竞争激烈，英伟达(NVDA.US)的Rubin芯片要与AMD(AMD.US)的MI350X和MI400X、谷歌(GOOGL.US)的TPU v7以及亚马逊(AMZN.US)的Trainium 3芯片展开竞争。Arya解释说，CPU领域也存在瓶颈，因为英特尔(INTC.US)和AMD提高了价格，而英伟达的Vera CPU则进一步加剧了市场的紧张。交换机也实现了3纳米级的工艺，英伟达的NVLink 6以及迈威尔科技(MRVL.US)和博通(AVGO.US)都提高了输出能力。Arya指出：“面向机架级架构(RSA)的AI芯片的扩展(Vera Rubin POD使用了7种不同的芯片)、推理/智能体的规模化以及设计起始点的多样性，都推动晶圆需求远远超过目前的供应量(UTR约为100%)。台积电(TSM.US)(已将晶圆厂的交付周期推迟到2027年)和英特尔/三星正在竞相追赶。此外，虽然现在评估埃隆·马斯克的Terafab项目还为时尚早，但我们认为其初期10万片/月的产能，从长远来看，可能会带来超过200亿美元的晶圆厂设备收入。”Arya表示，随着人工智能对高带宽内存(HBM)和动态随机存取内存(DRAM)的需求持续增长，芯片设备制造商也可能受益于对内存的持续需求。此外，美光科技(MU.US)的资本支出同比增长 25%，用于收购晶圆厂以提高产能，这也进一步加剧了紧迫性。Arya补充道：“尽管价格可能趋于稳定，但长期供货合同(3-5年)提供了可靠的可见性，并让存储器供应商对现金流充满信心，从而能够持续投资。供应商能够对HBM以及日益普及的DRAM进行差异化定价并收取溢价，这也是促使他们投资的动力。NAND闪存升级到300L也将在2027年保持强劲势头。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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美银上调芯片设备支出预期 应用材料(AMAT.US)与泛林集团(LRCX.US)稳居首选股

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美银上调芯片设备支出预期应用材料(AMAT.US)与泛林集团(LRCX.US)稳居首选股