中信证券：乳制品产业升级正当时龙头乳企前景广阔

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智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，液态奶承压下滑加速乳制品行业转型，目前我国深加工固体乳制品对外依存度高，奶酪、黄油等深加工产品占比仅7.3%，不足发达国家平均水平的1/4，在加工技术、关键设备等领域也依赖进口。当前B端需求增长快速，C端需求持续培育，上游牧业规模化发展成为产业链成长基石，乳制品深加工潜力巨大。该行看好龙头乳企的综合研发实力和产业链布局的发展空间;中长期看，乳制品深加工有望...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1422703.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，液态奶承压下滑加速乳制品行业转型，目前我国深加工固体乳制品对外依存度高，奶酪、黄油等深加工产品占比仅7.3%，不足发达国家平均水平的1/4，在加工技术、关键设备等领域也依赖进口。当前B端需求增长快速，C端需求持续培育，上游牧业规模化发展成为产业链成长基石，乳制品深加工潜力巨大。该行看好龙头乳企的综合研发实力和产业链布局的发展空间;中长期看，乳制品深加工有望...</p>\n\n<a 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prospects","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1.5,"06030":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，液态奶承压下滑加速乳制品行业转型，目前我国深加工固体乳制品对外依存度高，奶酪、黄油等深加工产品占比仅7.3%，不足发达国家平均水平的1/4，在加工技术、关键设备等领域也依赖进口。当前B端需求增长快速，C端需求持续培育，上游牧业规模化发展成为产业链成长基石，乳制品深加工潜力巨大。该行看好龙头乳企的综合研发实力和产业链布局的发展空间;中长期看，乳制品深加工有望提振上游原奶需求。中信证券主要观点如下：液态奶行业承压下滑加速转型，乳制品深加工潜力巨大根据奶业经济观察微信公众号，2022-25年液态奶产量平均CAGR为-2.8%，传统液态奶乳制品承压下滑。但2022年以来固体乳快速增长，支撑乳制品整体产量微增，从消费结构看，中国固体乳消费仍有较大潜力。目前我国深加工固体乳制品对外依存度高，奶酪、黄油等深加工产品占比仅7.3%，不足发达国家平均水平的1/4(转引自中国奶业协会微信公众号)。当前中国乳制品深加工产业链长且复杂，国内发展初步，加工技术落后，关键材料、设备依赖进口。但中国上游牧业规模已达全球前五，效率领先，奶价、成本降至全球低水平，且上游规模化程度高，且与下游深度绑定，2025年龙头乳企可控奶源比率达55%(转引自中国奶业协会微信公众号)。结构转型、产业链基础支撑下，中国乳制品深加工大有可为。短期B端驱动需求增长，长期消费升级潜力可以期待1)B端需求成为重要支撑：根据红餐智库，中国烘焙、西式快餐、咖啡饮品、茶饮行业保持较快增长，2020-25年CAGR分别为3.9%/8.5%/22.6%/10.5%，下游需求增长推动2022年以来B端奶酪、黄油、稀奶油品类实现中高个位数复合增长，该行测算2025年相应行业规模分别为168/110/116亿元，未来有望延续高增长。此外B端精深加工乳制品小规模高增速，特医食品2020-25年CAGR为24.9%，乳清蛋白粉、乳铁蛋白、药用乳糖行业近年来也维持双位数以上增长。2)C端消费持续培育具备大潜力：2022年以来C端深加工乳制品不同程度承压，当前行业体量较小，根据欧睿，2025年C端黄油、稀奶油行业规模分别为17/4亿元。但消费人群&场景具备潜力，仍有六成人不认为乳制品是每日膳食必需品(转引自中国奶业协会微信公众号)，未来本土化创新产品支撑下有望推动消费升级。海外启示：创新支撑C端发展，全产业链布局B端精进1)C端：日本乳制品深加工起步于二战后，通过政策引导、产品本土化创新，推动人均奶酪年消费量从1964年的0.12kg涨至2025年的2.45kg(USDA数据)，对比中日，日本C端奶酪人均高消费量，低人口下消费总量高于国内，中长期看，奶酪消费需要持续消费者培育、产品及口味本土化创新。2)B端：恒天然依托全产业链布局全球领先的B端乳制品深加工业务，深度绑定全球B端餐饮优质客户，整体较低杠杆、较低费率下、较高盈利(净利率5%-10%)。中国乳制品深加工行业大赛道高增长，且具备上游支撑，未来需要探索适合国内发展的B端扩张模式，实现与外资竞争中的突围。行业展望：全产业链龙头主导，中小企业品类突围该行将龙头乳企分为 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中信证券：乳制品产业升级正当时 龙头乳企前景广阔

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中信证券：乳制品产业升级正当时龙头乳企前景广阔