Counterpoint Research：2025年全球晶圆代工2.0市场营收达3200亿美元同比增长16%

智通财经03-31

智通财经APP获悉，半导体行业已正式迈入晶圆代工2.0时代，这一阶段的核心特征是制造、封装与测试深度融合，并在全球人工智能热潮的驱动下实现盈利性增长。根据Counterpoint Research最新发布的晶圆代工市场供应追踪报告，2025年全球晶圆代工2.0市场营收达到3200亿美元，同比增长16%。这一双位数增长主要得益于先进制程制造与先进封装领域对AI GPU和AI专用芯片(ASIC)的稳定...

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YoY","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/977f2866a52b8be8d6cea72b2fb47cb3","symbols_score_info":{"688249":1.85,"688981":1.87,"AIYY":0.6,"TSM":1.94,"03145":0.6,"SMHX":0.72,"TSMG":0.6,"XSD":0.72,"TSMY":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"SOXX":0.72,"TSMZ":0.6,"SOXQ":0.72,"AIPO":0.72,"STSM":0.6,"00981":1.87,"AI":0.72,"USD":0.72,"TSMU":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，半导体行业已正式迈入晶圆代工2.0时代，这一阶段的核心特征是制造、封装与测试深度融合，并在全球人工智能热潮的驱动下实现盈利性增长。根据Counterpoint Research最新发布的晶圆代工市场供应追踪报告，2025年全球晶圆代工2.0市场营收达到3200亿美元，同比增长16%。这一双位数增长主要得益于先进制程制造与先进封装领域对AI GPU和AI专用芯片(ASIC)的稳定需求。以台积电为代表的纯晶圆代工厂引领人工智能驱动的增长势头，而主要封测(OSAT)厂商则从溢出订单中受益。2025年晶圆代工2.0市场营收占比纯晶圆代工厂增长由台积电、中芯国际与晶合集成驱动台积电仍是晶圆代工 2.0 格局的核心支柱，尽管其 2025 年第四季度同比增速从年初 40% 以上放缓至 25%。鉴于高性能计算(HPC)基数较高以及消费电子需求的典型季节性波动，这一放缓符合市场预期。全年来看，其营收仍实现36% 的强劲同比增长。Counterpoint 高级分析师Jake Lai在评价台积电表现及 2026 年展望时强调：“更为重要的是，市场对台积电的关注点正在转变。核心问题已不再仅仅是晶圆产能，而是系统级整合。随着前段制程微缩愈发受限，瓶颈正日益转向后段。在此背景下，先进封装 —— 尤其是 CoWoS—— 正成为关键差异化优势，并有望成为 2026 年驱动台积电业绩的核心变量之一。”整体而言，非台积电系纯晶圆代工厂在 2025 年实现8% 的温和同比增长，主要厂商包括三星、联华电子(UMC)、世界先进(VIS)、中芯国际(SMIC)、晶合集成(Nexchip)、格芯(GlobalFoundries)等。三星全年表现喜忧参半，但随着部分重要潜在客户寻求供应链多元化，其 2026 年业绩有望从此步入增长轨道。研究总监Tom Kang在评价三星表现及前景时指出：“其 4 纳米工艺需求相对稳健，支撑了更优的定价水平;2 纳米工艺的量产爬坡将有助于其争取更高价值的芯片设计订单，尤其在人工智能与移动端领域。综合来看，出货量与平均销售单价(ASP)的双重提升意味着三星 2026 年必将实现增长。”在其他厂商中，中芯国际(同比+16%)、晶合集成(同比+24%)等中国代工厂表现突出，增长得益于持续推进的国产化支持政策。该趋势短期内难以改变，2026 年有望保持双位数增长。非存储类IDM 受益于德州仪器、英飞凌实现反弹整体半导体周期正逐步企稳。非存储类 IDM 企业基本度过最严峻的库存调整阶段，2025 年下半年重回增长。例如，德州仪器2025年实现双位数反弹(同比+13%)，英飞凌同比增长 5%。这一轮复苏将为 2026 年行业增长提供更稳固的基础。受益于台积电与日月光，从CoWoS到2.5D/3D的先进封装推动封测(OSAT)持续火热2025 年，封测(OSAT)板块营收同比增长 10%，彰显出先进封装领域的持续强劲态势。由于台积电内部产能仍处于紧张状态，日月光 / 硅品(ASE/SPIL)、安靠(Amkor)等厂商正不断承接溢出订单，其中尤以 AI 相关应用需求为主。展望未来，CoWoS-S 与 CoWoS-L仍将是先进封装技术路线图的核心。受台积电持续的产能限制影响，AI 客户正通过与封测厂商建立长期合作，积极锁定额外产能。因此，2026 年全球先进封装行业产能有望同比扩张约 80%。与以往周期不同，本轮增长更直接地绑定了 AI 平台的系统级需求(例如服务器 CPU、GPU 及定制化 ASIC)，这将为封测厂商带来更具持续性的增长路径。Counterpoint 高级分析师William Li在评价 AI 驱动的先进封装趋势时指出：“先进封装已不再仅仅是芯片制造的配套环节，正成为 AI 规模化部署的关键制约因素。随着客户纷纷锁定产能，封测厂商的结构性优势将远超以往周期，增长可见性可延伸至未来多年。”什么是晶圆代工2.0？传统意义上的晶圆代工 1.0仅聚焦于芯片制造，已不足以反映当前行业的发展态势。Counterpoint 提出的晶圆代工2.0扩大了范畴，将纯晶圆代工厂、非存储类垂直整合制造商(IDM)、外包半导体封装测试(OSAT)企业及光掩模供应商均纳入其中。向晶圆代工 2.0 转型，体现了行业从传统纯代工模式逐步转向更高度整合的生态体系。在实际应用中，这意味着设计、制造与封装环节更紧密协同，最终提升系统级效率并优化总体拥有成本(TCO)。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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Counterpoint Research：2025年全球晶圆代工2.0市场营收达3200亿美元 同比增长16%

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Counterpoint Research：2025年全球晶圆代工2.0市场营收达3200亿美元同比增长16%