今年一季度微软股价料将下跌25%，AI支出激增引发增长前景疑虑

环球市场播报03-30

微软正日益处于两大压力的交汇点，这可能决定其短期发展轨迹：一方面公司加大人工智能领域的支出，另一方面投资者开始质疑这些投资多久才能转化为更强劲的收入增长。与此同时，市场担心Anthropic和OpenAI等原生人工智能公司可能更接近终端客户，这可能会重塑软件的消费方式，并对微软的核心业务构成压力。骏利亨德森的乔纳森·科夫斯基指出，一些客户可能选择直接与人工智能供应商打交道，而非向微软付费，如果这种...

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prospects","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFL":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFT":1.97,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFY":0.6},"content_text":"微软正日益处于两大压力的交汇点，这可能决定其短期发展轨迹：一方面公司加大人工智能领域的支出，另一方面投资者开始质疑这些投资多久才能转化为更强劲的收入增长。与此同时，市场担心Anthropic和OpenAI等原生人工智能公司可能更接近终端客户，这可能会重塑软件的消费方式，并对微软的核心业务构成压力。骏利亨德森的乔纳森·科夫斯基指出，一些客户可能选择直接与人工智能供应商打交道，而非向微软付费，如果这种趋势发展下去，可能会对定价和利润率造成压力。\n　　这种紧张关系已开始反映在股价上。今年第一季度，微软股价下跌约25%，有望创下自2008年以来最差的季度表现，使其成为“科技七巨头”中表现最弱的公司，其他六家股价虽也下跌，但跌幅较小。其背景是资本密集度急剧上升，微软为在超大规模计算竞赛中保持竞争力而持续进行巨额投资。包括租赁在内的资本支出预计将从2025财年的约880亿美元增至2026财年的1460亿美元，并预计在2027和2028财年进一步增加。投资者对这些支出似乎正采取更为谨慎的态度，尤其是在Azure增长在最近一个季度出现小幅放缓，且Copilot尚未获得显著市场认可的情况下，这促使微软内部进行调整以改进产品。\n　　然而，长期前景仍存在争议，并未形成共识。Melius 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