“四面楚歌”的美团（03690.HK），突围之路何在？

蓝鲸财经03-30

文｜财华社2025年，美团（03690.HK）交出了一份喜忧参半的财报：一边是全年GTV（总成交额）、交易量实现双位数增长，交易用户数、消费频次与客单价同步刷新纪录，海外业务Keeta首次实现单季正数单位收益；另一边却是核心本地商业收入同比下降、毛利率下滑、亏损据报估下，深陷巨头围剿的惨烈战局。电商巨头跨界突袭：为破流量瓶颈，不惜代价强攻即时零售京东（09618.HK）和阿里巴巴（09988.HK...

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CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0819123356.HKD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0828237510.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF BIC (BRAZ IN CH)\"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD"},"translate_title":"Where is the breakthrough road of Meituan (03690.HK), which is \"besieged on all sides\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MPNGY":1.98,"METmain":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"03690":1.98},"content_text":"文｜财华社2025年，美团（03690.HK）交出了一份喜忧参半的财报：一边是全年GTV（总成交额）、交易量实现双位数增长，交易用户数、消费频次与客单价同步刷新纪录，海外业务Keeta首次实现单季正数单位收益；另一边却是核心本地商业收入同比下降、毛利率下滑、亏损据报估下，深陷巨头围剿的惨烈战局。电商巨头跨界突袭：为破流量瓶颈，不惜代价强攻即时零售京东（09618.HK）和阿里巴巴（09988.HK）两大电商巨头，几乎同时切入/加码即时零售与外卖赛道，并非一时兴起，而是存量时代下的必然选择。历经多年高速增长，国内互联网流量红利见顶，传统电商平台用户增长触及天花板，单纯依靠商品电商难以维持增长态势，提升用户购买频次、盘活存量流量，成为两大巨头的核心战略。外卖、即时零售作为高频刚需场景，恰好能填补电商低频消费的短板，盘活平台流量，提升用户粘性与生命周期价值。对京东（JD.US）、淘宝而言，攻入美团腹地，是突破增长瓶颈、守住商业版图不得不为的布局。为抢占市场份额，京东、阿里巴巴（BABA.US）开启疯狂烧钱模式，巨额补贴、营销投放、骑手激励轮番上阵，短期内快速分流用户与商家，蚕食美团市场份额。但惨烈的价格战，也让两大电商巨头元气大伤，2025年12月财季财报数据显示，京东季度营收同比仅微增，非会计准则净利润同比下挫90.40%；阿里同期非会计准则净利润同比下滑67.28%。2025年全年来看，京东和阿里的非会计准则净利润亦下滑40%以上，两家巨头销售及营销开支暴增，巨额补贴与市场投入吞噬绝大部分利润，全靠传统电商、物流、云业务等基本盘强力支撑，才勉强守住不亏损。双线承压：外卖份额遭蚕食，到店业务被合围这场跨界突袭，直接打破了外卖市场原有格局，对美团核心业务构成严重威胁，而美团营收下滑、盈利受压，正是这场冲击最直接的证据。美团核心本地商业分部，是公司营收支柱，2025年第4季，美团的核心本地商业分部收入同比微降1.12%，至648.35亿元（单位人民币，下同），并转盈为亏，录得分部经营亏损100.46亿元。全年来看，核心本地商业分部的2025年收入为2,608.26亿元，同比增长4.23%，并录得经营亏损69.04亿元，而上年为经营溢利524.15亿元，主要原因就是为迎战竞争对手，增加了骑手补贴、消费者激励、品牌促销投入等，同时也继续扩大海外业务和即时零售及AI投入。除了外卖赛道，美团到店餐饮、酒旅业务同样遭遇强敌围剿。抖音凭借庞大流量与短视频种草优势，强势切入本地生活，通过低价团购、直播带货，快速抢占商家与用户；携程（09961.HK）深耕酒旅多年，凭借资源优势与线下渠道，步步紧逼。阿里依托庞大生态——通过高德引流、闪购打通服务场景与支付宝完成支付，构成完整消费链条，从团购、到店消费端夹击美团。三大巨头分别从流量、资源两端发力，对美团到店业务形成合围之势。美团原本稳固的到店业务，面临用户流失、商家分流、利润下滑的多重压力，核心本地商业版图被全面渗透，彻底陷入双线作战的困境。美团全力自救：守住基本盘谋求突围面对四面楚歌的战局，美团或围绕核心优势，开启全方位自救，从海外扩张、供应链深耕、即时零售升级、AI技术赋能等方向发力，筑牢护城河，寻找新的增长极。1）海外拓展打开增量美团透露，其海外品牌Keeta于2025年迎来突破性进展。第4季，Keeta在香港市场站稳脚跟，实现正数单位经济收益，成为美团海外业务的首个盈利支点；沙特市场订单量持续稳健增长，盈利前景明朗。同时，美团加速布局新市场，下半年相继进入卡塔尔、科威特、阿联酋、巴西，覆盖中东、拉美核心市场。王兴透露，沙特市场实现盈利的速度，将超过香港，部分城市已经达成盈亏平衡，即便减少补贴，订单量依旧保持韧性，用户更认可服务质量而非低价。2026年，Keeta将聚焦现有市场深耕，平衡增长与盈利，严控亏损规模。美团预计，2026年新业务整体亏损，不会超过2025年，海外业务有望从烧钱投入期，逐步迈入稳健增长期，成为对冲国内竞争压力的重要增量。2）升级即时零售，巩固基本盘即时零售是美团长期战略核心，其持续向供应链上游延伸，美团闪购、自营小象超市成为核心供给。管理层透露，第4季，小象超市加速城市扩张，完善仓库网络，同时开设线下门店，打通线上线下闭环，覆盖更多消费场景。为进一步强化即时零售竞争力，美团拟以7.17亿美元收购叮咚买菜中国内地业务，目前交易尚待监管批准。管理层表示，此次收购，对美团意义重大：一方面，能快速补强生鲜零售供应链，提升运营效率，完善即时零售布局；另一方面，叮咚买菜在华东地区根基深厚，能补齐美团区域短板，扩大市场覆盖。美团早已重组生鲜零售业务，聚焦高效可持续增长，小象超市凭借微仓模式，实现高效履约与稳健增长，自有品牌、夜间场景布局持续完善。3）AI赋能：不做token工厂，扎根应用场景面对AI科技浪潮，王兴表示，美团将其定位为核心战略机遇，聚焦本地服务落地，而非盲目追逐概念。他明确表态，美团不急于打造“token工厂”，而是用AI改进、革新核心业务，提升运营效率与用户体验。他透露，早在2023年初，美团便加大资本与人才投入，自研大模型LongCat，同时携手第三方模型，推进APP智能化升级。目前，美团已推出AI助手小美、小团，落地客服、运营、营销等多个场景。他认为，美团拥有独一无二的线下配送网络、零售供应链、海量商家与用户数据，叠加无人机、无人车等具身智能技术，能打通AI与物理世界的壁垒，实现数字化降本增效。虽然现阶段AI研发推高费用率，但长期来看，将成为美团对抗竞争、提升效率的核心动力。行业拐点将至：竞争回归本质，美团短期优势仍在恶性补贴战难以长久持续，除了巨头自身盈利承压难以为继，更有监管层重磅发声，为这场无序竞争划定红线。近期监管部门明确表态，整治平台内卷式低价竞争，叫停不计成本的烧钱补贴、恶性倾销，要求行业回归理性竞争、合规经营，严禁以牺牲行业健康和长期盈利为代价抢占市场。王兴判断，未来行业竞争核心，将转向深化用户终身价值、提升供给质量、打造无缝体验，而非单纯的价格比拼。美团在中高客单价订单、优质用户群体中，依旧保持绝对优势，平均订单价值远超行业平均，用户更认可美团的配送效率、商家资源与服务体验。随着订单结构持续优化，美团外卖每单亏损或有望在未来几个季度改善。对美团而言，短期业绩承压是行业混战的必然结果，而更深远的影响在于，核心业务遭遇全方位围剿，正在彻底改写美团的估值逻辑。此前资本市场对美团的估值，依托于外卖、到店业务的垄断性优势、稳定的盈利预期和持续的高增长空间；如今京东、阿里、抖音、携程多方强攻，两大核心业务份额被蚕食、盈利被压制，长期利润率提升空间收窄，这也是美团近期股价持续受压的原因，我们留意到，近一年来，美团股价已腰斩。即便如此，美团长期增长逻辑并未完全崩塌。高频刚需的本地服务赛道，依旧拥有广阔空间；海外扩张、即时零售、AI赋能，应可缓冲竞争加剧的负面影响；深厚的配送网络、商家生态、供应链壁垒，难以被短期补贴撼动。结语2025年第4季，是美团最艰难的时期之一，也是战略转型的关键节点。电商巨头的跨界进攻，带来了短期业绩压力，却也倒逼美团加速进化。这场没有硝烟的战争，没有绝对的赢家，京东、阿里重伤参战，美团死守阵地，多方博弈之下，行业正走向高质量竞争的新阶段。需要留意的是，在互联网巨头的围攻之下，美团的估值逻辑也发生了变化，其腰斩的股价或反映了市场对其核心业务前景不再乐观的担忧。要扭转市场的看法，美团需证明其能扭转劣势，突围而出，或是新业务能带来增长契机。作者：吴言","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2623395480","isCrawlerRequest":true}