邦达亚洲:市场避险情绪挥之不去黄金小幅收涨

市场资讯03-30

3月30日，国联民生证券发布研报称，当前市场对美联储年内加息的预期迅速升温，但该行认为实际加息概率偏低。尽管通胀隐忧重现，美国就业市场已趋疲弱，且油价上涨缺乏向通胀持续传导的关键基础：供给端美国能源自给率提升，需求端经济偏弱、财政刺激退坡，薪资—通胀螺旋机制也未形成。该行指出，历史经验显示，美联储启动加息需强劲就业与稳定通胀预期支撑，当前条件不符。加息将加剧经济“K型”分化风险，冲击AI投资与...

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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexfxyc/2026-03-30/doc-inhsueew9675779.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月30日，国联民生证券发布研报称，当前市场对美联储年内加息的预期迅速升温，但该行认为实际加息概率偏低。尽管通胀隐忧重现，美国就业市场已趋疲弱，且油价上涨缺乏向通胀持续传导的关键基础：供给端美国能源自给率提升，需求端经济偏弱、财政刺激退坡，薪资—通胀螺旋机制也未形成。该行指出，历史经验显示，美联储启动加息需强劲就业与稳定通胀预期支撑，当前条件不符。加息将加剧经济“K型”分化风险，冲击AI投资与...</p>\n\n<a 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higher","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"IAUM":1.5,"SGOL":1.5,"GLDM":1.5,"1OZmain":1.5,"GLL":1.5,"SGCmain":0.6,"DZZ":1.5,"SGUmain":0.6,"GDX":1.5,"GLTR":1.5,"PALL":1.5,"JDST":1.5,"MGCmain":1.5,"GCmain":1.5,"QOmain":1.5,"DGP":1.5,"GDXD":1.5,"DUST":1.5,"XME":1.5,"IAUI":1.5,"NUGT":0.6,"JNUG":1.5,"GLD":0.6,"GDXJ":1.5,"AAAU":1.5},"content_text":"3月30日，国联民生证券发布研报称，当前市场对美联储年内加息的预期迅速升温，但该行认为实际加息概率偏低。尽管通胀隐忧重现，美国就业市场已趋疲弱，且油价上涨缺乏向通胀持续传导的关键基础：供给端美国能源自给率提升，需求端经济偏弱、财政刺激退坡，薪资—通胀螺旋机制也未形成。该行指出，历史经验显示，美联储启动加息需强劲就业与稳定通胀预期支撑，当前条件不符。加息将加剧经济“K型”分化风险，冲击AI投资与中低收入群体，可能将“滞胀”交易引向“衰退”。国联民生证券补充道，年内重启加息需多重条件共振，包括地缘冲突推升油价持续高位、财政扩张打通需求传导、美联储领导层政策立场变化等，但目前达成难度较高。\n　　另外，货币政策分析机构Monetary Policy Analytics分析师Derek Tang指出，美联储官员“非常不希望看到通胀预期上升”，但问题在于“他们并不清楚自己距离临界点有多近”。 伊朗战争进一步加剧了这一风险。油价和食品价格的上涨直接影响消费者的日常感受，更容易推高短期通胀预期。 不过，目前尚无证据显示预期已出现系统性抬升——密歇根大学3月消费者调查显示，短期通胀预期虽有所上升，但长期通胀预期仍保持温和。不过，尽管鹰派信号增多，部分经济学家仍认为今年降息并非无望。就业市场的疲软提供了一定的降息依据：2月份非农就业减少逾9万个，失业率升至4.4%。 Natixis首席美国经济学家Christopher Hodge表示，“今年年初经济本就缺乏强劲动能”，他仍预计今年将有进一步降息。\n　　今日需要关注的数据有，欧元区3月经济景气指数、欧元区3月消费者信心指数终值和德国3月CPI年率初值。\n　　黄金/美元\n　　上周五黄金震荡上行，日线小幅收涨，现汇价交投于4526附近。除空头回补对汇价构成了一定的支撑外，中东紧张局势挥之不去激发的避险情绪也对黄金构成了一定的支撑。不过，美联储的加息预期升温限制了黄金的反弹空间。今日关注4600附近的压力情况，下方支撑在4450附近。\n　　美元/日元\n　　上周五美元/日元震荡上行，突破160关口并刷新20个月高位，现汇价交投于159.80附近。美元指数在市场避险买需和美联储的加息预期支撑下突破100.00关口是支撑汇价攀升的主要原因。不过，日本央行的加息预期和对日本央行再次干预汇市的担忧限制了汇价的上升空间。今日关注160.50附近的压力情况，下方支撑在159.00附近。\n　　美元/加元\n　　上周五美元/加元震荡上行，日线小幅收涨，现汇价交投于1.3890附近。美元指数在避险买需和美联储加息预期的支撑下突破100.00关口是支撑汇价攀升的主要原因。此外，加拿大表现疲软的经济数据也对汇价构成了一定的支撑。不过，原油价格持续攀升限制了汇价的上升空间。今日关注1.4000附近的压力情况，下方支撑在1.3800附近。\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 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邦达亚洲:市场避险情绪挥之不去 黄金小幅收涨

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邦达亚洲:市场避险情绪挥之不去黄金小幅收涨