高油价撕碎降息剧本！瑞银警告：黄金牛市或进入尾声

市场资讯03-31

来源：金十　　瑞银（UBS）一位策略师表示，伊朗冲突长期化与油价持续高企，可能意味着黄金涨势即将落幕。　　这家瑞士投行的贵金属策略师乔妮・特维斯（Joni Teves）上周五在接受《市场观察》（MarketWatch）采访时称，投资者眼下可能正见证黄金牛市的尾声阶段。　　“我们认为黄金价格周期大体上与美联储政策周期同步，因此预计涨势将在年底逐步消退，未来几年金价在低位盘整，”她表示。　　...

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UBS Warns: Gold Bull Market Or Coming to an End","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"CEF":1.5,"BTGD":1.5,"1OZmain":1.5,"GDXY":1.5,"XME":1.5,"JDST":1.5,"AAAU":1.5,"DGP":1.5,"GCmain":1.5,"MGCmain":1.5,"SGOL":1.5,"PALL":1.5,"GLDM":1.5,"USG":1.5,"GDXD":1.5,"OUNZ":1.5,"DUST":1.5,"GDXJ":1.5,"IAUM":1.5,"GDX":1.5,"DZZ":1.5,"GLL":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"GLTR":1.5,"PHYS":1.5,"SGCmain":0.6,"JNUG":1.5,"SGUmain":0.6,"IAUI":1.5,"QOmain":1.5,"NUGT":0.6},"content_text":"来源：金十\n　　瑞银（UBS）一位策略师表示，伊朗冲突长期化与油价持续高企，可能意味着黄金涨势即将落幕。\n　　这家瑞士投行的贵金属策略师乔妮・特维斯（Joni Teves）上周五在接受《市场观察》（MarketWatch）采访时称，投资者眼下可能正见证黄金牛市的尾声阶段。\n　　“我们认为黄金价格周期大体上与美联储政策周期同步，因此预计涨势将在年底逐步消退，未来几年金价在低位盘整，”她表示。\n　　金价通常在冲突期间上涨，因交易者在市场波动时期涌入避险资产；但金价与美联储利率总体呈反向关系——央行降息时金价往往走高。\n　　芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）的美联储观察工具显示，美以袭击伊朗前一天，市场对美联储在12月政策会议前维持利率不变的概率仅为4%。自2024年9月美联储启动降息以来，该行曾表示，随着通胀逐步回落至2%目标，利率可能继续下调。\n　　然而，伊朗战争爆发后，市场对货币政策宽松的预期大幅降温，目前已定价今年利率维持不变——这意味着金价进一步上涨的可能性降低。\n　　特维斯表示，这正是瑞银目前预计“金价涨势年底消退、未来几年低位盘整”的原因。\n　　周一，金价大致徘徊在每盎司4500美元附近，远低于1月末触及的近5600美元高点。过去一个月金价下跌约15%，较两个多月前的历史高位回落近20%。\n　　瑞银对金价年底目标价为每盎司5600美元，主要基于投资者将继续通过买入黄金实现投资组合多元化的假设。特维斯称，这一趋势可能继续推高金价。\n　　“我们认为整体市场对黄金的配置仍偏低，”她补充道，“当前市场面临的不确定性，进一步强化了投资者希望构建更分散投资组合的趋势，而黄金被视为组合中的核心资产。”\n　　特维斯表示，瑞银团队的基准预期是，在经历一段盘整期后，随着配置资金持续入场，金价将在今年晚些时候刷新高点。“但需要指出的是，中东冲突持续可能导致宏观经济前景与政策预期发生重大变化，进而相应改变金价的中长期走势。”\n　　近期金价下跌也可能为投资者提供逢低买入机会。“我们认为黄金维持在当前价位及进一步回调，对许多投资者而言将开始具备吸引力，”特维斯说。但她同时表示，尽管如此，许多市场参与者仍在观望，等待战争局势明朗化。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：凌辰","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2623371896","isCrawlerRequest":true}