战火错杀后的最强修复线浮现！英伟达领衔的“AI算力天团”蓄势猛攻

智通财经03-31

3月31日，华尔街金融巨头Oppenheimer近日发布研报称，英伟达(NVDA.US)、博通(AVGO.US)、Monolithic Power Systems(MPWR.US)以及迈威尔科技(MRVL.US)仍然是该投资机构在全球半导体领域的首选股票。这家华尔街金融巨头援引“业绩确定性+高贝塔属性”的超跌反弹逻辑，以及持续全球不断扩张的人工智能支出作为长期看好这些首选半导体股票的核心依据。近日...

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The \"AI Computing Power Group\" led by Nvidia is ready to attack","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b622b9df7fea564c0c7047e0ac5747","symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2,"MRVL":2,"AVGO":2},"content_text":"3月31日，华尔街金融巨头Oppenheimer近日发布研报称，英伟达(NVDA.US)、博通(AVGO.US)、Monolithic Power Systems(MPWR.US)以及迈威尔科技(MRVL.US)仍然是该投资机构在全球半导体领域的首选股票。这家华尔街金融巨头援引“业绩确定性+高贝塔属性”的超跌反弹逻辑，以及持续全球不断扩张的人工智能支出作为长期看好这些首选半导体股票的核心依据。近日多位华尔街资深分析师表示，在全球股票市场进入超跌反弹窗口、或者中东地缘政治局势出现明确缓和信号时，常年来具备跑赢大盘属性且绝大多数乃被市场错杀的芯片股大概率会成为引领市场反攻与估值修复行情的最核心力量之一，甚至很可能就是“科技股风向标”纳斯达克100指数大举反弹的最核心主引擎，但前提是国际油价与长端国债曲线收益率同步回落。背后的核心逻辑主要在于，高贝塔芯片股对“地缘缓和—油价回落—利率压力减轻”的链条最敏感，因此一旦风险偏好修复，它们往往也最先且最强劲反弹。而在涵盖广义上的芯片类股票板块中又当属英伟达、博通所主导的业绩增长前景最为乐观的“与AI算力基础设施密切相关联的芯片板块”这一细分领域对于市场反弹逻辑最为敏感且反应最为迅速、反弹幅度最为猛烈。也就是说在在“风险缓和型反弹”场景下，与AI算力相关联的芯片股票，大概率是市场最核心的进攻看涨方向之一。在过去一年跑赢96%股票投资同行的新兴市场股票基金Robeco Emerging Stars Equities的掌舵者Jan de Bruijn近日表示，聚焦于人工智能的高性能与高端先进制程的芯片股为应对伊朗战争持久化前景提供了最佳风险对冲工具。这位基金经理表示，基金中40%风险敞口基本集中于存储芯片以及前沿的先进制程芯片主题，与人工智能密切相关的芯片巨头们即使在经济下行或者全球金融市场剧烈波动行情中也将保有强劲的定价权与基本面扩张潜力。当模型规模、推理链路与多模态/代理式Agentic AI工作负载推动算力资源消耗呈指数型外扩时，科技巨头们的资本开支主线愈发倾向于向AI算力需求井喷之下的AI算力基础设施集中，全球投资者们更是将围绕英伟达、谷歌TPU集群与AMD的新品迭代与AI算力集群交付预期的“AI牛市叙事”，继续锚定为全球股市中最具确定性的景气投资叙事之一，同时也意味着电力、液冷散热系统、光互连供应链等与AI训练/推理密切相关的投资主题将跟随英伟达、AMD以及博通、台积电、美光等AI算力领军者们在中东地缘政治局势面临不确定性之际，仍继续位列股票市场最火热投资阵营。根据机构汇编的最新分析师预期，亚马逊连同谷歌母公司Alphabet、Facebook母公司Meta Platforms Inc.，以及甲骨文公司和微软，预计将在2026年的累计人工智能相关资本支出达到大约6500亿美元，还有一些分析师认为整体支出可能超过7000亿美元——意味着同比AI资本开支增幅可能超过70%。值得注意的是，上述的这五大美国超级科技巨头，预计将在2023年至2026年间，为打造无比庞大的AI算力基础设施累计投入约1.5万亿美元;相比之下，这些科技巨头们在2022年之前的整个历史统计期间累计投资约6000亿美元。在华尔街巨头摩根士丹利、花旗、Loop Capital以及Wedbush看来，以AI算力硬件为核心的全球人工智能基础设施投资浪潮远远未完结，现在仅仅处于开端，在前所未有的“AI推理端算力需求风暴”推动之下，持续至2030年的这一轮全球整体AI基础设施投资浪潮规模有望高达3万亿至4万亿美元。AI军备竞赛火力全开! Oppenheimer长期锁定四大芯片股王者“上周我们走访了亚洲半导体供应链中的多家公司，”来自Oppenheimer的分析师Rick Schafer在发给客户的一份报告中写道。“AI算力军备竞赛仍在全速推进，云服务提供商们的AI算力基础设施需求可谓毫无约束，并且远远超过供应，这种情况料将一直持续到2027年之后。与AI算力基础设施相关的供应紧张横跨多个维度，其中最明显的是先进晶圆制造、先进封装和以及高端HBM存储系统。交货周期仍然被持续拉长。随着近乎无止境的AI需求猛烈吸收供应，与AI算力基础设施相关联的芯片价格正普遍上涨，并且很可能会转嫁给更多大客户们。”因此，分析师Schafer表示，他偏好那些能够提供“结构性强劲增长，从而在整个周期中实现大幅跑赢表现”的芯片公司。进一步来看，分析师Schafer表示，聚焦于AI的专用集成电路(即AI ASIC)仍在持续放量，其中以谷歌主导的张量处理单元(即TPUAI算力芯片集群)为引领势力。他还指出，为支持大语言模型参数的增长趋势，“有多个大型项目”正在不断增加，同时相关市场参与度也在持续提升。Schafer表示，如今宣布拿下的诸多订单，可能要到2028年年中才会开始产生实际营收。这是由于英伟达AI GPU算力机柜以及谷歌主导的AI ASIC机柜连接系统所带来的一系列难题与挑战，以及数据中心内部高速连接的其他问题，包括传统架构与新架构之间的差异。谈到英伟达时，Schafer表示，Grace Blackwell和Vera Rubin架构的AI服务器机柜今年的数量保守预计可能会超过75,000个。他还预计，相较于Grace Blackwell，Vera Rubin的平均售价将高出50%或更多，每个AI算力机柜单元的保守出售价格可能接近700万美元。此外，Schafer补充称，与Grace Blackwell 200或者更加先进的GB300系列相比，Vera Rubin对电源管理系统的要求更高(最高可达前者的五倍)，这可能会让Monolithic Power持续且大规模受益。英伟达、博通以及迈威尔科技则堪称是全球AI算力基础设施军备竞赛的三位最大AI算力赢家，尤其是近期英伟达估值已压缩至接近甚至低于标普500指数水平，相比于其他芯片股具备更加强修复弹性。此次Oppenheimer调研与走访的其他结论还包括：服务器CPU短缺并未显著冲击传统服务器增长;云计算服务提供商们和英伟达在可能的情况下仍然偏好铜缆技术基准的互连，但在“某些必要场景时”会坚定使用共封装光学(CPO);由谷歌引领的云巨头则正在广泛采用有源铜缆。Schafer还观察到了存储芯片短缺带来的一系列影响，他指出，智能手机和PC市场受到的负面冲击最大。分析师Schafer表示，尽管市场普遍预期智能手机市场将“整体下滑”，但低端和中端市场可谓“首当其冲”，其中中国手机出货量下滑近20%。相反，在存储价格持续上涨之际，苹果(AAPL.US)旗下旗舰智能手机的表现“更具韧性”。另外，Schafer认为，今年PC市场规模预计将下滑11%，不过价格更高的AI PC可能会抵消部分PC销量疲软态势。AI代理超级大浪潮来势汹汹! 推动AI算力需求持续井喷式扩张随着聚焦代理式AI工作流的Agent AI/Agentic AI站上数字世界“C位”，2026年或成AI代理爆发元年，这也意味着全球范围AI算力基础设施需求将持续呈现井喷式扩张态势。Anthropic的Claude Cowork，以及OpenClaw这类可自主执行任务的AI代理在2026年集中爆发并不偶然，本质上是“模型能力、工具协议、开发框架、推理成本、终端上下文能力”五条曲线第一次同时交汇。在AI应用层，AI代理很可能会成为最主导的商业接口，因为它把“智能”直接转化成“行动”，也意味着AI开始从“会回答”推进到“会执行、会协同、会完成极度复杂的多步骤任务”。企业们对于提高效率和降低运营成本的迫切需求，在近期可谓极大力度推进AI应用软件两大核心类别——生成式AI应用与AI智能体的广泛应用。其中，AI智能体极有可能是未来十多年的AI应用终极大趋势，AI智能体的出现，意味着人工智能开始从信息辅助工具演变为高度智能化的生产力工具。MarketsandMarkets最新研究显示，到2030年AI智能体市场规模有望高达530亿美元，意味着从2025年开启的年复合增速(CAGR)高达46%。Omdia最新研究显示，2026 年全球半导体行业营收有望猛增超30%，首次突破1万亿美元的历史级别里程碑，并且押注这种强劲增长主要由持续井喷式扩张的AI 训练/推理算力需求强劲拉动的数据中心存储芯片、AI GPU/AI ASIC以及数据中心服务器CPU所驱动。在广义芯片板块里，英伟达、博通所代表的AI芯片/AI算力基础设施链，近年来可谓是对市场反弹逻辑最敏感、反应最快、弹性也往往最大的一组，因为它们同时具备最强的业绩确定性、最清晰的AI资本开支主线，以及此前回撤后的显著估值修复空间。Oppenheimer继续把英伟达、博通、Monolithic Power、迈威尔列为首选半导体股票，本身就反映出市场仍把AI代理所驱动的AI算力基础设施供需极度紧张与结构性增长视为半导体板块的核心主线。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2623371559","isCrawlerRequest":true}