通胀冲击终将变增长冲击！小摩、PIMCO齐声警告：债市正严重低估美国经济放缓风险

智通财经03-30

智通财经APP获悉，部分华尔街顶级债券基金经理表示，金融市场正严重低估美国对伊朗发动的军事打击，这将给本已疲软的美国经济带来急剧放缓的风险。目前，国际油价已突破每桶110美元，且冲突毫无平息迹象，市场交易焦点仍集中在通胀冲击上。这推动美国国债市场遭遇2024年10月以来最惨烈的月度抛售，投资者纷纷押注美联储年内将再度加息。但以太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)、摩根大通、Columbia ...

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Xiaomo and PIMCO warned in unison: the bond market is seriously underestimating the risk of U.S. economic slowdown","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1d67dea9be3cd079ba28da1b77fb21","symbols_score_info":{"09141":0.6,"NAIL":1.5,"03141":1.5,"ITB":1.5,"XLP":1.5,"JPMO":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，部分华尔街顶级债券基金经理表示，金融市场正严重低估美国对伊朗发动的军事打击，这将给本已疲软的美国经济带来急剧放缓的风险。目前，国际油价已突破每桶110美元，且冲突毫无平息迹象，市场交易焦点仍集中在通胀冲击上。这推动美国国债市场遭遇2024年10月以来最惨烈的月度抛售，投资者纷纷押注美联储年内将再度加息。但以太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)、摩根大通、Columbia Threadneedle Investments为代表的资管巨头，已开始为经济衰退冲击布局——他们预判，经济走弱终将触发债市反弹，推动收益率大幅回落。摩根大通资产管理固定收益投资组合经理Kelsey Berro表示：“冲突每持续一天，市场就离被迫正视经济增长的负面效应更近一步，这最终将压低美债收益率。当前收益率整体已升至具备吸引力的水平。”随着能源价格飙升、借贷成本攀升、股市重挫开始挤压企业与消费者，经济学家纷纷下调增长预期、上调衰退概率。高盛预计未来12个月美国经济衰退概率升至约30%，PIMCO则认为这一概率超过三分之一。通常而言，经济悲观预期利好债券，因为这将提升美联储降息以刺激经济的可能性。但此次情况截然不同——交易员认为，能源价格暴涨将令本就面临顽固高通胀的美联储束手束脚，难以降息。由此引发的债市剧烈抛售，推动收益率全线飙升。自上月末美国发动空袭以来，两年期和五年期美债收益率已跳升超50个基点;30年期收益率逼近5%，距2023年美联储将利率推至20余年高位时的峰值仅一步之遥。这一走势主要反映市场对能源价格推高各类商品成本的担忧。经合组织(OECD)上周警告，美国今年消费者价格指数(CPI)或飙升至4.2%。投资者因此要求更高债券回报，以抵御通胀侵蚀。但资深债市投资者认为，当前抛售已创造锁定高收益的良机——市场对通胀的担忧，正掩盖经济增长面临的威胁。管理超2万亿美元资产的PIMCO首席投资官Daniel Ivascyn称：“始于通胀的冲击，往往会迅速演变为增长冲击。我们正站在经济显著走弱的临界点。”事实上，战争爆发前美国经济风险已在累积。自特朗普重返白宫后加征关税、颠覆全球贸易以来，就业市场持续降温。2月美国雇主裁员9.2万人，将于周五公布的3月数据预计仅温和反弹，新增就业或仅6万人。此外，市场还因人工智能(AI)相关担忧、私人信贷行业局部压力而动荡不安。如今，已持续四周的战事实际上切断了霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输。这一冲击已传导至终端消费，美国汽油价格涨至疫情后通胀飙升以来的最高水平。管理超2万亿美元资产的贝莱德固定收益主管Rick Rieder认为，美联储仍应降息以缓冲冲击。他表示，一旦经济前景更明朗，将加码买入短期债券。“未来几周我们将观察局势变化，之后我会入场买入，”他在采访中称。截至周五，期货市场显示，交易员已完全排除美联储2026年降息的可能，预计其将维持利率不变，并定价年内约三分之一的概率加息25个基点。随着30年期收益率走高，Columbia Threadneedle投资组合经理Ed Al-Hussainy已开始增持长期债券。他预判，若美联储进一步加息、给经济增添新压力，长期收益率最终将回落。“美联储收紧政策力度越大，债券收益率曲线长端就越需要为总需求与通胀溢价定价，从而承受更大下行压力，”他表示。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2623366667","isCrawlerRequest":true}