美经济学家警告：沃尔玛相关衰退指标飙升至金融危机以来最高水平

环球市场播报03-31

一位华尔街资深人士表示，与美国最具标志性的经济支柱之一沃尔玛相关的指标正在发出可能出现经济衰退的警告。　　吉姆·保尔森是一位资深经济学家，也是Leuthold Group前首席投资策略师。他维护着沃尔玛衰退信号（WRS），该指标衡量沃尔玛的股价相对于一篮子奢侈品股票的表现。其基本理念是，该指标越高，经济急剧下滑的风险就越大。　　如下图所示，WRS指数达到了近二十年前全球金融危机以来的最高水平：...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2623274903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-03-31 07:12","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2623274903","market":"other","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美经济学家警告：沃尔玛相关衰退指标飙升至金融危机以来最高水平","media":"环球市场播报","content":"<div>\n<p>一位华尔街资深人士表示，与美国最具标志性的经济支柱之一沃尔玛相关的指标正在发出可能出现经济衰退的警告。\n　　吉姆·保尔森是一位资深经济学家，也是Leuthold Group前首席投资策略师。他维护着沃尔玛衰退信号（WRS），该指标衡量沃尔玛的股价相对于一篮子奢侈品股票的表现。其基本理念是，该指标越高，经济急剧下滑的风险就越大。\n　　如下图所示，WRS指数达到了近二十年前全球金融危机以来的最高水平：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-31/doc-inhsvsha3414560.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美经济学家警告：沃尔玛相关衰退指标飙升至金融危机以来最高水平</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美经济学家警告：沃尔玛相关衰退指标飙升至金融危机以来最高水平\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-31 07:12 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-31/doc-inhsvsha3414560.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一位华尔街资深人士表示，与美国最具标志性的经济支柱之一沃尔玛相关的指标正在发出可能出现经济衰退的警告。\n　　吉姆·保尔森是一位资深经济学家，也是Leuthold Group前首席投资策略师。他维护着沃尔玛衰退信号（WRS），该指标衡量沃尔玛的股价相对于一篮子奢侈品股票的表现。其基本理念是，该指标越高，经济急剧下滑的风险就越大。\n　　如下图所示，WRS指数达到了近二十年前全球金融危机以来的最高水平：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-31/doc-inhsvsha3414560.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1280957306.USD","symbol_name":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-31/doc-inhsvsha3414560.shtml","article_id":"2623274903","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2623274903","pubTimestamp":1774912320,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"一位华尔街资深人士表示，与美国最具标志性的经济支柱之一沃尔玛相关的指标正在发出可能出现经济衰退的警告。　　吉姆·保尔森是一位资深经济学家，也是Leuthold Group前首席投资策略师。他维护着沃尔玛衰退信号，该指标衡量沃尔玛的股价相对于一篮子奢侈品股票的表现。其基本理念是，该指标越高，经济急剧下滑的风险就越大。高盛和BCA Research等华尔街机构纷纷上调了未来12个月的经济衰退概率预测，这主要是由于近期油价飙升带来的连锁反应。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1116320901.HKD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) INC","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1035773651.USD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2097829019.USD":"AZ EQUITY - BORLETTI GLOBAL LIFESTYLE \"AI\" (USD) ACC","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","BK4596":"哈里斯概念","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4597":"股息贵族","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1003077747.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0553294199.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A5G\" (USD) INC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A5\" (USD) INC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2361044949.HKD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2361044865.SGD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2361045086.USD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","WMT":"沃尔玛","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0256863902.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0545039389.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A2\" ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","WMTI":"REX WMT Growth & Income ETF","LU2461242641.AUD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"US economists warn: Wal-Mart-related recession indicators soar to the highest level since the financial crisis","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WMTI":0.6,"WMT":1.95},"content_text":"一位华尔街资深人士表示，与美国最具标志性的经济支柱之一沃尔玛相关的指标正在发出可能出现经济衰退的警告。\n　　吉姆·保尔森是一位资深经济学家，也是Leuthold Group前首席投资策略师。他维护着沃尔玛衰退信号（WRS），该指标衡量沃尔玛的股价相对于一篮子奢侈品股票的表现。其基本理念是，该指标越高，经济急剧下滑的风险就越大。\n　　如下图所示，WRS指数达到了近二十年前全球金融危机以来的最高水平：\n\n　　沃尔玛衰退信号背后的逻辑是，随着经济放缓，越来越多的消费者会从奢侈品店转向沃尔玛等平价零售商。保尔森在谈到该指标时表示，这意味着沃尔玛衰退信号的上升可能预示着经济衰退或“显著的经济放缓”即将到来。\n　　沃尔玛长期以来一直是美国消费者健康状况的风向标，过去一年来表现强劲，股价在过去12个月里上涨了40%。随着通胀担忧加剧，消费者寻求节省开支，沃尔玛股价因此受益匪浅。\n　　保尔森指出，沃尔玛衰退信号在过去四次美国经济衰退前都出现了显著上升。他表示，今年迄今为止，该信号已攀升约28个基点，这很可能是由于围绕伊朗冲突的经济焦虑所致。\n　　保尔森写道：“WRS越来越建议对美国经济保持谨慎态度。”他补充说：“我估计今年美国经济不会陷入衰退，但我越来越相信，美国经济正在经历一次严重的放缓。”\n　　鉴于近期WRS指标的上升，保尔森强调了他对美国经济的几项担忧：\n　　中低收入消费者的困境\n　　保尔森表示，近期工资收入比的上升表明，中低收入家庭可能面临更大的财务压力。\n　　他补充说：“整个经济的压力正从收入分配的底层不断增加，即使私人财务状况得以维持，经济仍可能经历一段实际增长明显低于预期的时期。”\n　　私募信贷问题。\n　　保尔森指出，WRS指数历来与私募信贷资产的价值密切相关。近几个月来，随着资产管理公司面临大量赎回请求，人们对私募信贷行业健康状况的担忧也日益加剧。\n　　保尔森表示：“WRS指数最近的飙升或许预示着私募信贷市场正面临日益严重的困境。”\n　　就业市场疲软\n　　保尔森指出，WRS历来与失业率密切相关，他援引了自1990年以来对经济衰退信号和失业率的分析。\n　　他补充道：“在20世纪90年代末，WRS大幅上升，远早于失业率的最终飙升。”这表明，WRS近期的上升可能尚未反映在失业率数据中。\n　　尽管美国经济在某些方面具有韧性，但保尔森也指出了一些脆弱性，例如近期招聘、住房活动和消费支出的放缓。\n　　“我猜测WRS预示着实际经济活动将显著疲软，这种情况在未来几个月可能会更加明显，”他说道。不过，他也推测，如果伊朗冲突能够迅速解决，美国今年或许可以避免经济衰退。\n　　随着伊朗冲突持续的时间越来越长，关于经济衰退的呼声也越来越高。高盛和BCA Research等华尔街机构纷纷上调了未来12个月的经济衰退概率预测，这主要是由于近期油价飙升带来的连锁反应。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：于健 SF069","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2623274903","isCrawlerRequest":true}