美预测平台押注马斯克明年之前成为万亿美元富翁的概率达82%

环球市场播报03-27

美国预测市场交易平台Kalshi近日开出了埃隆·马斯克何时成为全球首位万亿美元富翁的赔率，在“2027 年之前”实现这一目标的概率刚刚达到 82%。　　对于愿意下此赌注的人来说，他们实际上只需支付 82 美分，就能获得 1 美元的回报（前提是他们猜对了）。这个赔率看起来并不高，但表明绝大多数人都坚信马斯克很快就会成为全球首位万亿富翁。　　马斯克目前的净资产据估计已超过8000 亿美元，其中包括...

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year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLP":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLA":1.91,"TSLS":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLT":0.6},"content_text":"美国预测市场交易平台Kalshi近日开出了埃隆·马斯克何时成为全球首位万亿美元富翁的赔率，在“2027 年之前”实现这一目标的概率刚刚达到 82%。\n　　对于愿意下此赌注的人来说，他们实际上只需支付 82 美分，就能获得 1 美元的回报（前提是他们猜对了）。这个赔率看起来并不高，但表明绝大多数人都坚信马斯克很快就会成为全球首位万亿富翁。\n　　马斯克目前的净资产据估计已超过8000 亿美元，其中包括价值 5000 亿美元的SpaceX资产（该公司最近与xAI合并后的估值达到 1.25 万亿美元），以及价值 3000 亿美元的特斯拉股票和期权。这不包括马斯克 2025 年那价值 1 万亿美元的股票薪酬方案，因为这些股票马斯克尚未实际获得。\n　　SpaceX 计划今年通过首次公开募股出售股份，此次上市可能使该公司市值达到 1.8 万亿美元。这意味着公司市值将再增加约 2000 亿美元，如果特斯拉股价保持稳定的话，这足以让马斯克的身家达到 1 万亿美元。\n　　在争夺万亿美元富翁宝座的竞争中，几乎没有谁能与马斯克匹敌。谷歌联合创始人拉里·佩奇的身价约为 2400 亿美元。\n　　Meta创始人马克·扎克伯格的身价约为 2000 亿美元。Met近期推出了一项薪酬计划，该计划基于公司市值达到 9 万亿美元，比近期水平增长六倍。如果这一目标实现，扎克伯格目前持有的价值约 2000 亿美元的股票将飙升至 1.2 万亿美元。\n　　卡尔希的独立市场预测，扎克伯格成为全球首位万亿美元富豪的概率不到1%。也就是说，如果你猜对了，只要投入不到1美分就能赚到99美分。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：于健 SF069","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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