“AI末日论”作者再发预警：别放弃降息押注！美联储将忽视油价冲击

智通财经03-26

智通财经APP获悉，一个多月前，Citrini Research创始人詹姆斯·范·吉伦(James van Geelen)因一份“2028人工智能(AI)末日预言”意外成为全球焦点。这份7000字的报告通过设定未来的假想情景，概述了AI可能对全球经济多个领域带来的风险，恰好迎合了华尔街最严重的担忧——当时，投资者正在抛售任何有可能被AI取代的公司的股票。如今，他又押注另一波由恐慌驱动的抛售——这次...

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Fed to ignore oil price shocks","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d669df4041bdd04f56c91e0be76b8a0","symbols_score_info":{"VOO":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"TLT":1.5,"MESmain":0.6,"BOXX":1.5,"OILU":1.5,"SPXU":0.6,"CHAT":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"OIH":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"SPYI":0.6,"IEF":1.5,"IEI":0.6,"TMF":1.5,"OILT":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"DBO":1.5,"IVV":0.6,"KRE":0.6,"AGIX":1.5,"AIPO":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"BIL":1.5,"ZBmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"VDE":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"DUG":1.5,"SSO":0.6,"UUP":1.5,"SHV":1.5,"GOVT":0.6,"ZTmain":0.6,"KBWB":0.6,"SKRE":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"BND":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"SHY":1.5,"DPST":0.6,"TNmain":0.6,"MUB":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，一个多月前，Citrini Research创始人詹姆斯·范·吉伦(James van Geelen)因一份“2028人工智能(AI)末日预言”意外成为全球焦点。这份7000字的报告通过设定未来的假想情景，概述了AI可能对全球经济多个领域带来的风险，恰好迎合了华尔街最严重的担忧——当时，投资者正在抛售任何有可能被AI取代的公司的股票。如今，他又押注另一波由恐慌驱动的抛售——这次发生在债券市场——已经过头了。随着中东战争引发油价及大宗商品价格飙升，这带来了经济可能遭受1970年代式的冲击的紧迫风险，进而迫使各国央行开始加息以防通胀失控的可能性，而这导致全球债券价格大跌。在美国，随着交易员放弃对降息的押注，美国国债本月出现自2024年10月以来最大跌幅。据悉，在中东战争爆发前，根据美联储FedWatch工具，市场预计美联储今年至少降息两次，甚至有近40%的概率押注更大幅度的宽松。而随着油价上涨，这一预期已彻底逆转——市场目前预计今年利率维持不变，并有17%的概率押注加息。不过，范·吉伦在周三的一篇文章中表示，油价飙升很可能给经济带来新的、足够严重的冲击，从而阻止美联储加息。他表示：“如果油价维持高位，那么仅仅把利率维持在当前水平就已经足够具有限制性。与此同时，油价会逐步传导至经济其他领域，并导致可以通过降息来应对的经济放缓。”范·吉伦预计美联储将忽视油价冲击，不太可能加息。他认为，如果战争在一个月内解决，“消费者将略有疲软”，但对通胀的担忧将会消退。而如果战争持续下去，他预测股价将下跌，“财富效应将导致经济过于疲软，以至于市场不会认为美联储在未来12个月内不降息”。他表示，他的公司正在买入担保隔夜融资利率三个月期货合约，并做空美股。如果经济遭重创，这两项押注都会获利。上述观点表明他加入了其他一些华尔街机构的行列，预测美国经济放缓可能会盖过通胀影响。例如，城堡证券本周表示，能源成本上升所导致的“需求破坏”可能会支撑债券市场的部分板块。太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)也表示，各国央行最终仍有可能降息。随着中东战争持续，一些迹象表明，这种观点正开始被市场接受。周三，美国国债收益率小幅下行——此前欧洲债券收益率跌幅更大——尽管期货市场仍然反映出美联储今年有一定概率加息。上一次战争推高能源价格，是在2022年俄乌冲突爆发之后，当时美联储后来确实收紧了货币政策。但那时候，随着经济从疫情中强劲复苏，通胀本来就已经在迅速上升。范·吉伦表示：“我们如今生活在一个不同的世界里。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2622883700","isCrawlerRequest":true}