财通证券：生猪养殖寒冬已至宠物食品延续增长

智通财经网03-26

智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，生猪板块当前处于周期左侧，未来能繁母猪产能加速出清或成为板块行情的核心催化剂，跟踪淘汰母猪价格则能够有效判断行业产能出清的实际情况。配股思路上，规模增长逐渐淡化，具备成本优势的企业更具盈利弹性，同时资产质量有望快速改善，分红能力增强。而宠物行业内销景气延续，国产品牌势能目前持续提升。财通证券主要观点如下：生猪养殖：供大于求猪价持续下跌，生猪板块1Q2026...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2622879508?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-03-26 10:37","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","id":"2622879508","market":"fut","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"财通证券：生猪养殖寒冬已至 宠物食品延续增长","media":"智通财经网","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，生猪板块当前处于周期左侧，未来能繁母猪产能加速出清或成为板块行情的核心催化剂，跟踪淘汰母猪价格则能够有效判断行业产能出清的实际情况。配股思路上，规模增长逐渐淡化，具备成本优势的企业更具盈利弹性，同时资产质量有望快速改善，分红能力增强。而宠物行业内销景气延续，国产品牌势能目前持续提升。财通证券主要观点如下：生猪养殖：供大于求猪价持续下跌，生猪板块1Q2026...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1419287.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财通证券：生猪养殖寒冬已至 宠物食品延续增长</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财通证券：生猪养殖寒冬已至 宠物食品延续增长\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-26 10:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1419287.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，生猪板块当前处于周期左侧，未来能繁母猪产能加速出清或成为板块行情的核心催化剂，跟踪淘汰母猪价格则能够有效判断行业产能出清的实际情况。配股思路上，规模增长逐渐淡化，具备成本优势的企业更具盈利弹性，同时资产质量有望快速改善，分红能力增强。而宠物行业内销景气延续，国产品牌势能目前持续提升。财通证券主要观点如下：生猪养殖：供大于求猪价持续下跌，生猪板块1Q2026...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1419287.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"601108","symbol_name":"财通证券","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1419287.html","article_id":"2622879508","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2622879508","pubTimestamp":1774492621,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"而宠物行业内销景气延续，国产品牌势能目前持续提升。内销头部国产品牌持续完善产品和渠道布局，品牌力和市占率持续提升，2025及1Q2026收入和净利润有望实现较快增长。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"601108":"财通证券","BK0276":"资本市场"},"translate_title":"Caitong Securities: Pig breeding winter has arrived, pet food continues to grow","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601108":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，生猪板块当前处于周期左侧，未来能繁母猪产能加速出清或成为板块行情的核心催化剂，跟踪淘汰母猪价格则能够有效判断行业产能出清的实际情况。配股思路上，规模增长逐渐淡化，具备成本优势的企业更具盈利弹性，同时资产质量有望快速改善，分红能力增强。而宠物行业内销景气延续，国产品牌势能目前持续提升。财通证券主要观点如下：生猪养殖：供大于求猪价持续下跌，生猪板块1Q2026全面调整1）猪价：一季度，前期母猪产能增加传导至商品猪出栏，叠加出栏体重处于高位，供应压力持续释放，需求端恰逢春节后的肉类消费淡季，供大于求的背景下，猪价一路下跌，2026年3月中旬全国生猪出栏均价跌至10.16元/公斤。2）仔猪价格：一季度受猪价下跌影响，养殖户对后市价格预期偏悲观，补栏仔猪的积极性不高，2026年春节后仔猪价格反季节性下跌，截止3月20日，7公斤断奶仔猪价格仅280.95元/头。3）盈利：一季度伴随猪价持续探底，以及饲料原料价格边际上涨，生猪养殖行业全面陷入亏损，截止3月20日，自繁自养头均亏损约297.68元，外购仔猪育肥头均亏损约141.48元，外销仔猪的盈利同样收窄，预计一季度生猪板块上市公司都在不同程度上承压。4）周期展望：该行认为，当前生猪养殖行业依然处于供大于求的阶段，行业需要一段时间消化库存，短期内猪价或维持在底部震荡，难以出现趋势性反转。当前行业面临“猪价底部、仔猪价格回落明显、饲料原料价格上涨”等多重困境，行业或迎来能繁母猪产能的加速出清，下一轮上行周期景气度值得期待。5）投资建议：重点推荐：牧原股份、温氏股份、天康生物、巨星农牧；建议关注：神农集团、德康农牧等。后周期：需求端暂承压，潜在成长性持续催化1）从养殖周期角度，生猪养殖行业进入周期下行，动保需求端暂承压，从行业批签发数据来看，2025年四季度/2025年，圆环同比-19.7%/+11.32%，伪狂犬同比-34.6%/+4.67%。2）从产品周期角度，非洲猪瘟亚单位疫苗攻毒试验持续推进；部分公司在新产品或新领域布局持续推进，内生增长动力较强。相关标的：科前生物、瑞普生物等。宠物：内销景气延续，国产品牌势能持续提升1）内销方面，宠食景气延续，据久谦中台，2025年宠物食品天猫、京东、抖音电商平台合计增速10%，三平台增速分别为+5%/+9%/+24%。内销头部国产品牌持续完善产品和渠道布局，品牌力和市占率持续提升，2025及1Q2026收入和净利润有望实现较快增长。2）外销方面，2025年1-12月食品出口额为101.02亿元，同比4.06%。贸易冲突对出口形成扰动，1Q2026由于汇率和基数原因，企业出口业务暂承压。相关标的：中宠股份、佩蒂股份、乖宝宠物。风险提示：原材料价格波动风险，动物疾病风险，极端灾害风险。更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2622879508","isCrawlerRequest":true}

财通证券：生猪养殖寒冬已至 宠物食品延续增长

精彩评论

财通证券：生猪养殖寒冬已至宠物食品延续增长