中信证券：欧洲天然气价飙涨热泵迎来复苏拐点

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智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，受地缘冲突升级影响，天然气供给冲击或长期存在，3月欧洲气价飙涨92.4%，显著推升热泵经济性。当前欧洲热泵库存去化基本完成，叠加欧盟46亿欧元补贴落地及中国对欧出口高增，在“高气价+政策补贴+库存周期”共振下，欧洲热泵需求或已触底回升，迎来复苏拐点。中信证券主要观点如下：受地缘冲突影响，欧洲天然气价格飙涨。2026年3月，受“卡塔尔LNG供应停摆+...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1420158.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，受地缘冲突升级影响，天然气供给冲击或长期存在，3月欧洲气价飙涨92.4%，显著推升热泵经济性。当前欧洲热泵库存去化基本完成，叠加欧盟46亿欧元补贴落地及中国对欧出口高增，在“高气价+政策补贴+库存周期”共振下，欧洲热泵需求或已触底回升，迎来复苏拐点。中信证券主要观点如下：受地缘冲突影响，欧洲天然气价格飙涨。2026年3月，受“卡塔尔LNG供应停摆+...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1420158.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"XOP","symbol_name":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR 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Recovery","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1.5,"QGmain":1.5,"06030":1.5,"KOLD":1.5,"VDE":1.5,"DGAZ":0.6,"FCG":1.5,"UNG":0.6,"DUG":1.5,"XOP":1.5,"NGmain":1.5,"MNGmain":1.5,"UGAZ":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，受地缘冲突升级影响，天然气供给冲击或长期存在，3月欧洲气价飙涨92.4%，显著推升热泵经济性。当前欧洲热泵库存去化基本完成，叠加欧盟46亿欧元补贴落地及中国对欧出口高增，在“高气价+政策补贴+库存周期”共振下，欧洲热泵需求或已触底回升，迎来复苏拐点。中信证券主要观点如下：受地缘冲突影响，欧洲天然气价格飙涨。2026年3月，受“卡塔尔LNG供应停摆+霍尔木兹海峡通行受阻”的影响，欧洲天然气价格大幅飙涨，根据雅虎财经荷兰TTF期货价格从2月27日的31.6欧元/MWh升至3月20日的60.8欧元/MWh，累计上涨92.4%。卡塔尔年出口LNG约77-80Mtpa、占全球供应约19%-20%，且绝大多数需经霍尔木兹海峡外运，该海峡作为全球天然气贸易最重要的海运瓶颈之一，任何军事威胁、绕航、保险收紧或通行效率下降都会压缩全球LNG边际供给。当前战争已演化至卡塔尔液化和出口设施受损，天然气从单纯物流扰动演变为\"通道受阻+供给中断\"的双重冲击，加之天然气市场受制于液化能力、海运运力、接收站和长期合同约束，短期替代和再平衡能力较原油更弱，因此霍尔木兹风险对欧洲气价的冲击或长期存在。高气价进一步推升热泵经济性。采暖热泵采用“热量搬运”方式供暖，能效比可达3-5，即1单位电能可获取3-5单位热量，或为欧洲采暖最优解。根据GlobalPetrolPrices数据，该行以2025年欧洲平均电价0.27美元/kWh、天然气价格0.99美元/m³为基准测算：正常气价情况下，热泵较直接天然气制热年运行费用可节约约1977美元；按当前TFF价格换算后，年节约金额扩大至4310美元(假设电价不变)。受地缘政治格局影响，能源价格波动使热泵相对于传统燃气壁挂炉的运行经济性显著提升，年运行费用节约幅度已达此前的两倍。“气价高企+政策补贴周期+渠道库存周期”共振下，热泵需求或已触底回升。当下欧洲供暖设备库存去化已基本完成，除英、德国外，欧洲各国正着手出台热泵补贴政策。根据European Commission，欧盟将投入46亿欧元(约351.3亿元人民币)的补贴用于热泵等清洁技术项目，后续有望逐步扩大补贴规模，预计伴随欧洲各国热泵补贴政策的发放，欧洲热泵有望迎来需求复苏。根据海关总署数据，2025年我国热泵出口金额持续实现双位数增长，2025年12月同比增速进一步提升至59%，增长势头强劲。核心零部件供应商有望长期受益。当前热泵核心零部件基本已具备国产化能力，在屏蔽泵及阀件领域，国产品牌已接近世界领先水平并切入外资热泵厂商供应链当中，未来有望持续受益于热泵全球市场增长。热泵主要零部件为压缩机/屏蔽泵/阀件/控制器，其中涡旋式压缩机为热泵主要应用品类，此类产品仍由外资主导，国产品牌正强势崛起替代外资竞品；屏蔽泵和阀件厂商增长较为明确，屏蔽泵厂商已成功切入欧洲供应链；控制器企业欧洲份额持续增长，未来有望持续受益于热泵全球市场增长。投资策略：整机厂：欧洲热泵供应体系相对封闭，短期供需错配、国内整机厂从事代工生产；但外资在欧洲加速扩产，短期关注未来欧洲厂商扩产完备后我国整机厂是否会面临供应链回流的问题；中长期关注国内热泵市场是否会复制空调产业成长路径。从暖通产业发展来看，该行认为最终更为受益的是具备规模化优势、渠道资源的玩家。因此，尽管热泵对于龙头短期业绩弹性较小，但该行认为热泵长期渗透率逻辑以及终局格局仍将有利于这些龙头企业。零部件：当前热泵核心零部件基本已具备国产化能力，在屏蔽泵及控制器领域，国产品牌已接近世界领先水平并切入外资供应链当中，未来有望持续受益于热泵全球市场增长。预计未来伴随热泵需求回暖，屏蔽泵和控制器厂商增长势头更为明确，屏蔽泵、控制器企业已成功切入欧洲热泵厂商供应链，能够回避供应链回流风险，未来有望持续受益于全球热泵市场增长。风险因素：海外市场增长不及预期风险；化石能源价格大幅度回落风险；海运运力加剧紧张风险；原材料价格大幅上涨风险；国际贸易局势突变风险；补贴政策不及预期风险；竞争日益加剧风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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中信证券：欧洲天然气价飙涨 热泵迎来复苏拐点

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中信证券：欧洲天然气价飙涨热泵迎来复苏拐点