高盛交易员警告：特朗普“嘴炮”代替不了原油，霍尔木兹中断若持续，通胀第二波或在路上

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霍尔木兹海峡危机正将市场推入一个口头与现实的根本矛盾之中。高盛资深交易员直言，言辞无法替代实物分子，而当口头威慑失效，真正的压力测试才刚刚开始。高盛One-Delta业务负责人Rich Privorotsky在最新客户备忘录中指出，尽管美国再度推迟对伊朗能源基础设施的打击期限，油市反应依然温和，市场焦点已高度收窄至同一个问题——霍尔木兹海峡何时重新开放。他警告，"你无法用嘴炮替代分子"。在市场...

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Privorotsky在最新客户备忘录中指出，尽管美国再度推迟对伊朗能源基础设施的打击期限，油市反应依然温和，市场焦点已高度收窄至同一个问题——霍尔木兹海峡何时重新开放。他警告，\"你无法用嘴炮替代分子\"。在市场影响层面，Privorotsky认为，霍尔木兹中断的通胀冲击已远不止于原油本身，正向柴油、石油化工品、塑料乃至氦气等领域蔓延扩散。相关价格压力将在未来数月内逐步传导至更广泛的经济层面，构成潜在的通胀第二波。与此同时，他强调，利率走势仍是当前压倒一切的核心变量，实际利率的突破性上行将使股市承压。\"分子\"困境：口头施压正在失去市场效力Privorotsky将当前局势定性为基本面与叙事之间的裂口正在扩大。他指出，市场的反应已经减弱——白宫的表态仍在，但效果递减，一旦这一工具彻底失效，市场将面临重新定价。在他看来，当前基础情境仍指向局势进一步升级，但他并不完全排除出现转机的可能性，只是这些转机\"不明显，也不会由美国主导\"。首轮谈判看似在正式启动前已告失败，市场由此进入等待模式，押注某种妥协能否在压力积累后自然浮现。通胀第二波：冲击正在向下游蔓延Privorotsky对长期油价持偏高判断，理由是霍尔木兹中断的期权价值已成为真实且可重复的风险溢价。战略石油储备(SPR)的消耗意味着未来某个时点必须回购，这进一步支撑远端原油价格，他认为在任何去升级行情中买入远端原油及能源龙头是合理的操作。但更值得警惕的是通胀冲击的扩散路径。他指出，若中断持续，价格压力将不再局限于原油，而是向柴油、石油化工品、塑料乃至氦气等品类全面渗透，二阶效应正在扩大，并将在未来数月内逐步反映至通胀数据。利率才是核心：滞胀情境下的资产逻辑Privorotsky明确表示，利率走势的重要性凌驾于一切之上。他警告，周期末端的紧缩是股票资产最糟糕的环境，激进的熊式曲线平坦化叠加实际利率突破，将对估值形成持续压制——即便企业盈利勉强维持，市盈率的压缩也难以避免。在资产配置层面，他指出，在滞胀冲击情境下，各国政府可能被迫在国防开支与能源及食品补贴之间做出取舍，这一财政约束解释了为何国防板块表现不及预期。黄金方面，他认为当前仍更像机会而非警示。周期末端紧缩叠加另一侧的财政超支，能够同时支撑美元强势与黄金上涨。风险与转机：如果海峡重开Privorotsky坦言，当前持有风险资产令人不安。美国对伊朗基础设施打击的10天暂停并未消除周末重燃冲突的风险，持仓与情绪面虽对股市构成一定支撑，月末资金需求亦存，但利率才是决定性变量。他勾勒了一个关键的反转情境：若霍尔木兹海峡重开，熊式曲线平坦化将被解除，实际利率回落，能源与金融条件同步宽松，市场将获得一次显著的双重松绑。他以此作结：在足够压力积累之后，妥协通常会随之而来，从更长周期来看，在这类环境中保持建设性立场，历史上通常是正确的选择。本文编选自“华尔街见闻”，作者：杨宸;智通财经编辑：何钰程。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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