美伊战争中黄金为何下跌？瑞银：避险属性并未失灵只是延迟生效

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自去年以来，黄金就一直涨势如虹，屡屡创下历史新高。然而直到2月底美伊战争打响，黄金突然失去失去上涨动力，一路向下回落，如今已经较1月的峰值下跌了20%以上。这让不少黄金投资者感到纳闷：黄金明明是避险资产，为何这次避险属性却失灵了?对此，瑞银全球财富管理团队的答案是：黄金的避险属性并非失灵，而是在未来可能会延迟起效。黄金的避险属性并未失灵当地时间本周一，瑞银全球财富管理团队发布报告，进一步坚定了对...

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UBS: Safe-haven attributes have not failed, just delayed effectiveness","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"DUST":1.5,"IAUM":1.5,"GDXJ":1.5,"GLD":0.6,"GLL":1.5,"XME":1.5,"NUGT":0.6,"GLDM":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"SGOL":1.5,"GCmain":1.5,"DGP":1.5,"DZZ":1.5,"SGCmain":0.6,"1OZmain":1.5,"QOmain":1.5,"MGCmain":1.5,"JNUG":1.5,"PALL":1.5,"GDXD":1.5,"AAAU":1.5},"content_text":"自去年以来，黄金就一直涨势如虹，屡屡创下历史新高。然而直到2月底美伊战争打响，黄金突然失去失去上涨动力，一路向下回落，如今已经较1月的峰值下跌了20%以上。这让不少黄金投资者感到纳闷：黄金明明是避险资产，为何这次避险属性却失灵了?对此，瑞银全球财富管理团队的答案是：黄金的避险属性并非失灵，而是在未来可能会延迟起效。黄金的避险属性并未失灵当地时间本周一，瑞银全球财富管理团队发布报告，进一步坚定了对黄金的看涨立场。瑞银分析师韦恩·戈登(Wayne  Gordon)及其团队表示，尽管金价近期有所下跌，但他们认为，投资者仍应持有黄金，作为防御性对冲工具。这听起来可能有些奇怪，因为在美伊战争期间，黄金的价格似乎一直与战局紧张程度呈相反关系：每当战局出现加剧迹象，黄金价格也随之下落，反之亦然。这显然违背了投资者们对黄金“避险属性”的理解：通常情况下，战争里应导致投资者纷纷涌向黄金以寻求避险才对。但戈登的团队并不担心。“我们不会将此情况视为与黄金的‘伯南克时刻’——即‘重大转折点’——因为我们看到，当前情况与几十年前央行政策重要转折时期存在明显的差异，这表明基本面并未明显变化，并且我们预计在未来的宏观发展基础上金价会有强劲的支撑，”他说道。这位分析师补充说，其团队对于黄金作为有效投资组合对冲工具的看法并未改变，并预测黄金价格很快就会重新开始上涨。金价避险效果可能未来显现？瑞银将黄金近期的下跌归因于几个因素，比如投资者对美联储降息的信心减弱、市场投机势头减弱等。不过，在戈登看来，如果历史可以作为参考的话，对黄金未来前景的负面看法可能为时过早。他表示：“对于许多投资者而言，黄金在面对地缘政治紧张局势和价格波动加剧时表现较为平淡，这似乎与人们的直觉相悖……然而，历史表明，尤其是在冲突初期阶段，黄金并非总是会上涨。”这位分析师回忆道，在上世纪70年代的石油危机期间(这一时期与当前伊朗战争导致油价上涨的情况非常相似)，由于市场对通货膨胀的担忧，黄金价格曾出现了强劲的上涨势头。但在两伊战争期间，由于宏观经济因素相互制衡，使得金价总体上保持平稳。戈登认为，事实上很难将不同历史时期地缘政治冲突期间的黄金价格进行直接比较。不过，一个明确的结论是，黄金的价格走势往往并非由直接的冲突本身所驱动，而是由政策和经济背景所决定。他表示：“由于市场正在适应预期的更高利率和强势美元(这些都是金价上涨的短期阻碍)，黄金在早期周期中的保值作用受到了压力。但这并非是黄金避险表现的失灵，而是一种延迟。”本文转载自“财联社”，智通财经编辑：蒋远华。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2622026695","isCrawlerRequest":true}

美伊战争中黄金为何下跌？瑞银：避险属性并未失灵 只是延迟生效

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美伊战争中黄金为何下跌？瑞银：避险属性并未失灵只是延迟生效