行业观察｜双线重注，阿里想换的未来是什么？

财经杂志03-21

意在换取万亿GMV与千亿美金营收的长期格局文｜杨立赟编辑｜谢丽容3月19日晚间，阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司（9988.HK）公布了2026财年第三财季（自然年2025年四季度）的业绩。报告期内，其收入为2848.43亿元，同比增长2%。若不考虑高鑫零售和银泰的已处置业务的收入，同口径收入同比增长将为9%。经营利润为人民币106.45亿元；净利润随之下降至156.31亿元。经调整EBITA同比下降至...

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change?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"09988":1.97,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"BABA":1.97},"content_text":"意在换取万亿GMV与千亿美金营收的长期格局文｜杨立赟编辑｜谢丽容3月19日晚间，阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司（9988.HK）公布了2026财年第三财季（自然年2025年四季度）的业绩。报告期内，其收入为2848.43亿元，同比增长2%。若不考虑高鑫零售和银泰的已处置业务的收入，同口径收入同比增长将为9%。经营利润为人民币106.45亿元；净利润随之下降至156.31亿元。经调整EBITA同比下降至233.97亿元。阿里将其归因于对即时零售、用户体验以及科技的投入。不过，部分下滑被云业务增长所带来的经营业绩改善，以及运营效率的提升所抵销。此外，这一财季阿里的自由现金流为113.46亿元，较2024年同期下降，无论是净利润的下滑，还是自由现金流的下滑，有一大原因都是对即时零售的投入。即时零售需要从两个角度去看——一方面，即时零售是外卖的延伸，从送餐饮到送外物，已是多家平台型公司的下一个竞争点；另一方面，即时零售是电商的延伸，而这一点才是阿里要打这场仗的长远意义。阿里高管在财报之后的电话会上提到，除了对业务的补贴，2025年四季度宏观消费基本面整体偏弱，这是这一季业绩的重要影响因素之一。暖冬天气延缓了冬装换季需求，而春季时间靠后则导致春节备货及返乡消费高峰推迟，使得传统消费旺季未能如期启动。在此背景下，四季度社会零售增速处于偏低区间，其中12月同比增速仅为0.9%，反映出居民消费意愿及终端需求释放均显不足，呈现出典型的“旺季不旺”特征，消费复苏动能有所减弱。这一财季，阿里的CMR（客户管理收入）的增速为1%，与四季度社会零售变化趋势吻合，财报会上，阿里的高管提到2026开年之后消费复苏，在即时零售战略的共同拉动下，实物电商成交和CMR增速显著回升，电商利润也得到改善。阿里巴巴的规划目前看起来清晰而坚决：即时零售——2028财年GMV破万亿，2029财年实现盈利；AI+云——未来五年内外部商业化年营收跨越千亿美元。短期账的下滑，正是为这两笔长期账的翻转埋下伏笔。投入即时零售是必选项中国电商站在历史拐点：流量红利耗尽，存量竞争成为常态。电商平台的出路只有一个——跳出存量内卷，创造新的增量。过去电商购物是“计划性购物”，而即时零售是“即时性满足”。把这块业务做起来，意味着阿里传统电商的边界被拓宽。即时零售，是2025年三大互联网平台的竞争核心，也将继续成为2026年的竞争重点之一。阿里的业务架构里，即时零售属于大消费板块。从财报上看，阿里巴巴目前已经形成“2+N”的架构——大消费平台、“AI+云”就是两大发展核心。当面临核心电商和即时零售的攻防战，以及AI技术巨额投入等多条线作战，阿里的决策时将资源和精力归拢，全集团“一盘棋”。根据财报披露，2025年四季度，阿里持续进一步扩大即时零售业务规模，提升用户体验，优化运营效率，并加大拓展高笔单价餐饮和非餐品类的力度。阿里方面披露，得益于履约物流效率的提升、订单结构改善及高客户留存率，即时零售业务的单位经济效益和笔单价持续环比改善。在2025年“双十一”，阿里的即时零售业务和电商业务一起经过全年压力测试，此后，阿里讲收购并经营多年的外卖品牌“饿了么”与自身的即时零售品牌“闪购”合并，更名为“淘宝闪购”，对大消费业务进行进一步融合，与淘宝app更紧密地联动。经过多年发展，传统电商正面临流量和规模的瓶颈，各家都需要找到新的增长点。阿里披露，报告期内，即时零售收入增长56%，淘宝App的月活跃消费者同比双位数提升。过去一年，闪购对平台整体的拉动在于，包括闪购在内的电商大盘年度活跃买家增长了1.5亿，实物电商的年度活跃买家增长1亿，淘宝实物电商年度活跃买家的增长超过了过去3年的总和。更重要的是，本季度，88VIP会员数达到5900万，实现双位数增长。这组数据的价值在于：核心用户的粘性正在转化为平台的护城河。一个愿意付费成为会员的用户，其生命周期价值远高于普通用户。这部分用户的持续增长，意味着平台可以在不依赖流量扩张的情况下，通过深度经营核心用户实现稳健增长。阿里巴巴集团首席财务官徐宏表示，即时零售扩大规模的同时，UE（单位经济效益）持续改善。高盛在2025年8月的相关报告中曾预测，2025年美团、阿里巴巴、京东三家公司的UE都为负数，前两家的差距较小；到2026年三家的UE都将提升，美团将率先转为正数，而阿里和它的差距将将一步缩小。从整个市场格局来看，在即时零售上烧的钱，取得了一定的结果。第三方研究机构易观分析发布的即时零售市场报告显示，2025年第四季度淘宝闪购即时交易市场份额为45.2%，美团为45.0%，两者份额差距仅0.2个百分点，即时零售市场呈现多平台竞争态势；京东即时交易市场份额为8.4%，位列第三。另一家分析机构瑞银报告给出的单量市场份额数据指出，按日均单量估算，三者美团、阿里、京东三家的份额分别为51%、42%、7%，行业格局整体稳定。大消费平台与AI，双线如何协同？阿里的即时零售业务收入实现56%增长的背后，“云+AI”起到了效率和技术的保障。通过优化履约物流效率、改善订单结构，直接提升了业务的单位经济效益和用户留存率。报告期内，云智能集团收入为人民币432.84亿元，同比增长36%。这一增长势头主要由公共云业务收入增长所驱动，其中包括AI相关产品采用量的提升。其中，AI相关产品实现连续第十个季度的三位数同比增长。根据IDC相关报告，阿里云基于全栈AI云能力，2025年在金融公共云基础设施市场份额达到43%，创历史新高；在中国混合云市场，阿里云蝉联PaaS及服务市场第一。2026年1月15日，阿里将千问App与淘宝天猫、淘宝闪购、高德、飞猪、支付宝等阿里生态业务的深度打通。千问App可实现跨平台智能调度服务，AI从聊天式交互迈入任务执行的新阶段。2月6日，千问App投下30亿元重金，启动春节推广。阿里巴巴集团首席执行官吴泳铭表示，千问app与阿里消费生态各应用场景加速融合，显著带动新用户增长和交易活跃度。2月千问C端应用月活跃用户数超过3亿，AI智能体进入规模化办事时代。阿里的大消费平台，为阿里云和AI提供了真实世界场景，让AI能力能够嵌入到人们生活的方方面面，真正为用户“办成事”。这主要体现在两个层面：其一是场景落地。阿里的AI不再只是实验室里的模型，而是通过千问App与淘宝、高德、飞猪、支付宝、大麦等国民级应用深度打通。用户可以通过对话式AI直接下单外卖、规划旅行，让AI从聊天机器人变成了能执行复杂任务的生活助理。这种深度整合让AI技术找到了最直接的C端落脚点。其二是数据与反馈循环。海量的消费场景为AI模型提供了丰富的训练数据和实时的效果反馈。财报中提到，截至2月底，已有近1.4亿用户通过千问App的智能体功能首次体验AI购物。每一次用户与AI的互动，都在反哺和优化底层模型，形成“技术赋能场景，场景反哺技术”的良性循环。外界常把阿里的AI储备视为“成本中心”，但更准确的定位应该是“竞争壁垒”。阿里管理层提出未来5年，云和AI商业化年营收“千亿美元”目标，预示着AI将从一个“成本中心”转变为巨大的“利润中心”。从底层芯片、云基础设施，到千问大模型，再到电商场景的应用，阿里正在构建一个全栈的AI能力体系。这个体系的商业价值，将在未来几年逐步释放。当AI开始重塑每一个交易环节，当AI开始创造新的商业模式，今天的千亿投入就会变成明天的竞争护城河。过去四个季度，阿里在AI和云基础设施上的资本开支约1200亿元。这是一笔巨大的投资，但也是一笔必须的投资。下一程：考验战略执行效率在财报会上，阿里巴巴管理层公布了未来的两大业务板块未来各自的目标。对即时零售的目标是，整体GMV在2028财年过1万亿的目标，在2029财年实现整体盈利。也就是说，它准备好了在未来两年左右的时间，即时零售会一直处于亏损状态。阿里表示，未来两年将以这一目标坚定投入，同时实现市场地位领先。它决心用当前的利润、现金流下滑，付出面向未来的”门票”。对AI+云的目标是，未来五年，云和AI外部商业化年营收突破1000亿美元。阿里提出，最大的增长动能来自AI大模型能力的突破，预计在2026年会看到大模型具备完成to b复杂工作流的能力。这一趋势下，越来越多公司将token消耗视为生产资料的一部分，而非仅仅消耗IT预算，这将对未来的AI增长产生长期的根本性影响。阿里高管在财报会上表示，为了实现这一目标，未来五年，预计以大模型驱动的MaaS业务将成为核心增长引擎。MaaS业务将涵盖丰富的应用场景，包括AI应用软件等，同时还有针对中大型企业的内部推理和训练市场，这个市场会基于企业自身业务形式和应用场景的安全性、特殊性选择公共API服务或私有化部署，这些也将成为阿里云AI基础设施的重要增量场景。1万亿元人民币和1000亿美元的星辰大海，驱动阿里巴巴在当下进行重投入。更深层次，阿里在赌的可能是另一个判断：未来五年，电商行业的竞争壁垒将从“流量采购能力”转向“Token生产成本”。理解这一点，才能看懂即时零售和AI两条“烧钱线”的内在关联。即时零售是在消费侧抢占“即时满足”的心智入口，而AI是在供给侧重构“需求匹配”的效率基线。前者让用户形成“想买什么就找淘宝闪购”的行为习惯，后者让平台能够以远低于对手的成本完成每一次需求识别和履约调度。两条线在2028-2029年的交汇点，正是阿里预计即时零售整体盈利的时间窗口——届时，AI驱动的效率红利将开始从成本中心转化为利润中心。“在做什么”和“为什么做”这两个问题很清晰，“能否做成”是下一财年的关键问题。这取决于三点。其一，资源分配策略是否清晰？目前阿里同时在多个方向投入，即时零售、AI基础设施、用户体验、海外市场。这种多头并进的策略，在资源充裕时可行，如短期业绩压力进一步加大，或者竞争对手进一步投入补贴战，就需要明确的分配策略。其二，组织协同能否支撑战略落地？以即时零售为例，它涉及淘宝、饿了么、盒马等多个业务单元的协同。这种跨业务的协同，对组织效率是极大的考验。能否实现“电商远近场的协同”，不仅取决于战略方向，更取决于跨部门的利益分配和决策流程。类似地，AI对电商的赋能，也需要技术和业务团队之间的深度耦合，而非简单的“技术输出+业务采购”。其三，创新试错的节奏能否跑赢市场？在商业世界的演进中，新公司、新团队无需背负既有业务的结构性包袱，没有存量利益的牵绊，组织更为灵活、决策链条更短，往往能够集中有限资源在单一赛道上形成压强突破，以机制弹性赢得迭代速度，带着新技术和新模式弯道超车。相对而言，大企业因为雄厚的资金储备与抗风险能力，能在新模式的探索中承受更长时间的亏损期，也能换取市场验证与路径突破，这其中机会与挑战并存。最大的可能性是，当阿里巴巴兑现了1万亿元人民币和1000亿美元的长期账之时，无论是电商和即时零售，还是AI和云，都迎来了各自的行业拐点。但这注定不是一场可以轻取的战役，能推动重要拐点到来的，不只有阿里，它和所有竞争对手都在加大投入，各自努力的同时，在大时代中也在使同一种力。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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