马斯克官宣：年产1万亿瓦芯片，人类迈向星际文明打响第一枪

新智元03-22

【新智元导读】马斯克又一次把不可能变成“正在发生”！特斯拉、SpaceX、xAI三箭齐发，奥斯汀TERAFAB工厂正式开建，目标直指1太瓦（1万亿瓦）算力。马斯克的目标竟是让人类从I型文明冲向II型文明！马斯克来真的～特斯拉、SpaceX、xAI一起建设有史以来最大的芯片制造工厂TERAFAB。它将逻辑芯片、存储芯片和先进封装技术整合在同一屋檐下，年产能算力计划为1太瓦（1万亿瓦）。这次目标可谓...

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目标直指1太瓦（1万亿瓦）算力。马斯克的目标竟是让人类从I型文明冲向II型文明！马斯克来真的～特斯拉、SpaceX、xAI一起建设有史以来最大的芯片制造工厂TERAFAB。它将逻辑芯片、存储芯片和先进封装技术整合在同一屋檐下，年产能算力计划为1太瓦（1万亿瓦）。这次目标可谓突破天际，马斯克的终极目标是星系级文明，也就是可充分利用像银河系这种星系全部能量的文明。特斯拉发推称这是通向星际文明的下一步；马斯克称“前方将迎来最激动人心的时代”。而这座算力工厂就是为了从太阳获取尽可能多的能量，推动人类从一级文明迈向二级文明。征途：星辰大海目前人类利用的，仅仅是到达这颗行星的太阳能量中极小的一部分。全人类文明在地球上的电力产量，大约仅相当于太阳总能量的万亿分之一。这意味着，即使将文明的能源输出提升一百万倍，也仍然只相当于太阳能量的百万分之一。也就是说，人类文明还远远没达到I型文明的上限。而地球接收到的能量只占太阳总辐射量的约二十亿分之一，距离II型文明更是“遥遥无期”。在宇宙中，地球如此渺小；宇宙之浩瀚下，世上纷争不过琐事。而人类渴望成为一个向银河系扩张的文明，拥有能让任何人随时前往任何地方的星际飞船，在月球上建立宏伟的城市，在火星上建立城市。马斯克希望人类未来能遍布整个太阳系，并将星际飞船送往其他恒星系统。这才是最美好的未来。而要实现这一切，人类需要驾驭太阳的力量。因此，尽管TERAFAB拥有太瓦级的计算能力，但从宇宙的尺度来看，它依然渺小。要实现这个极其艰巨的目标，对人类来说确实困难重重，真正需要的是SpaceX、xAI与特斯拉三方携手，共同打造这个史诗级的TERAFAB项目。为了从太阳获取尽可能多的能量，我们需要每年向太空发射1亿吨的太阳能收集装置。SpaceX的星舰是整个拼图中的关键一环，因为要扩展计算能力、扩大能源规模，就必须走向太空，这意味着你需要将巨大的有效载荷送入太空，而星舰将实现这一点。直观感受一下星舰有多大：最左边的擎天柱机器人，用来作为参照，身高大约1米7左右。中间是星舰V3火箭，而星舰V4将会更高更大。SpaceX正在将星舰B3的有效载荷从100吨提升到200吨，正在推进中。最右边是AI卫星迷你版粗略示意。它的功率大约在100千瓦左右。要实现每年太瓦级的计算能力，大约需要具备每年将数亿吨物资送入轨道的能力太阳能驱动的AI卫星数百万特斯拉Optimus机器人参与建设实现这一目标并不需要新的物理学突破，也不存在什么不可能的事情。在此基础上，马斯克将建设太瓦级的太阳能发电能力。这样一来，发电问题——太阳能的问题——就解决了。因此，剩下的关键拼图就是芯片问题、算力问题。所有这些都需要大量的芯片：仅Optimus机器人就需要100-200GW的芯片，另外还需要为太阳能AI卫星提供太瓦级(1000GW)的芯片。作为参照，目前全球AI计算每年的产能大约是20GW。这超过了目前全球所有芯片制造商的总产能，甚至预计到2030年的生产增长也无法满足需求。所以，今天的TERAFAB正是为了解决这个关键缺失的环节，共同迈向那片属于星辰的未来。万亿瓦算力巨兽，正式开建马斯克宣布在Austin建设第一座全新的芯片工厂TERAFAB。这座先进技术晶圆厂，将拥有制造任意类型芯片（逻辑芯片或存储芯片）所需的所有设备。同时，拥有制造光刻掩模版所需的全部设备。也就是说，在单一建筑内，马斯克就可以完成光刻掩模版的制作、芯片的制造、芯片的测试、再制作新的掩模版——从而实现芯片设计改进的极速递归循环。据马斯克介绍，目前全球没有任何一个地方，能够同时具备制造逻辑芯片、存储芯片、进行封装、测试、再制作掩模版并不断迭代优化的所有条件。而且，马斯克不仅仅要做传统的计算，还要挑战物理与计算的极限，尝试各种大胆甚至疯狂的想法。但这一切，只有当你拥有这种快速迭代循环时才能做到。这一点就是马斯克心中的核心优势：能够在同一座建筑内完成芯片制造、测试、设计修改、再制造新芯片，这种迭代优化的能力，将比世界上任何其他地方都要领先一个数量级。总的来说，马斯克计划制造两种类型的芯片。一种将针对边缘推理进行优化。这类芯片主要用于擎天柱机器人和车辆，但尤其是在擎天柱上。因为马斯克预计人形机器人的产量将是汽车产量的10到100倍。如果全球汽车年产量大约为1亿辆，那么他预计人形机器人的年产量将在10亿到100亿台之间。此外，马斯克还需要一种专为太空设计的高功率芯片，它需要考虑到太空中的严苛环境：高功率、高能离子、高能光子、电子积聚等。总之，在太空中设计芯片与在地面上设计芯片有许多不同的约束条件。未来：丰饶的时代至于太空计算，马斯克猜测未来它将占据计算的绝大部分。因为地球上的电力是受限的。所以他认为，每年地球上的芯片需求大概是100到200吉瓦，而太空中的芯片需求可能达到太瓦量级。这很可能是因为地面上的电力约束所致。但太空有一个优势：那里永远阳光普照。这非常理想。可能只需两三年，将AI芯片送入太空的成本就会低于地面部署的成本。因为在太空中，你不太需要电池，因为永远有阳光。在太空中，获得的太阳能将至少是地面的五倍以上，因为太空中没有大气衰减、没有昼夜交替、没有季节变化，而且可以始终保持正对太阳。这样就能最大限度地利用太阳能。实际上，太空太阳能的成本比地面太阳能更低，因为不需要厚重的玻璃或支架来抵御极端天气。因此，一旦进入轨道的成本降到一个较低的水平，将AI部署在太空就会变得极具吸引力，基本上是一个毋庸置疑的选择。更关键的是，走向太空后，你会获得规模经济的红利，随着时间推移，事情会变得越来越容易。而反过来，当你想在地面上不断增加电力时，你会遇到空间不足的问题，好的位置会被占满，然后就要面对“别在我家后院”的邻避困境。所以实际上，在地球上增加电力会变得越来越难，成本越来越高。但在太空中，情况恰恰相反——随着时间的推移，成本会越来越低，难度也会越来越小。这是非常重要的几点。听到这里，心里肯定会想：TERAFAB之后呢？如何达到拍瓦级？这显然是下一个问题。答案是：在月球上建造一个电磁质量驱动器，配合机器人，配合擎天柱，当然还有大量的人类。有了它，你就可以实现拍瓦级的计算能力，并将这些算力送往深空。因为月球没有大气层，重力只有地球的六分之一，你根本不需要火箭，可以直接利用电磁加速，将载荷加速到月球的逃逸速度。这将再次大幅降低成本，能实现比太瓦级大上千倍的目标。这至少应该能让人类达到太阳总能量的百万分之一。想想这一点仍让人感到谦卑。但太阳能量的百万分之一，也将是当今地球经济体量的一百万倍。从这个角度来看，这已经非常可观了。然后，再以此为起点，向行星扩张，向其他恒星系扩张，创造我所能想象到的最激动人心的未来。马斯克认为未来一切都会是免费的。他的理由也很简单：如果你拥有一个接近当前地球经济体量一百万倍的AI与机器人经济体系，那么你任何可能的需求都能被满足。只要你能想到，你就能拥有。甚至在未来，货币将不复存在，每个人都能享有富足。只要你能想到，你就能拥有，就是这样。这意味着任何人都可以去土星旅行？到那时，不再只有少数人才能享有。如果你想去，你就能去。当算力、能源与航天开始合流，人类通往星辰大海的路，就不再只是想象。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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