马斯克又画大饼，真正能吃到的少之又少

国际金融报03-23 13:36

画饼大师马斯克又来了。日前，马斯克宣布启动“Terafab”项目，由特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI三家联合，要在美国得州建一座涵盖逻辑、存储和封装的超级芯片工厂，目标年产1太瓦（TW）算力（约1000亿-2000亿颗芯片），相当于当前全球产能的50倍，其中80%用于太空任务。这个饼画得够大——太瓦级产能、太空算力、自建全产业链，每一个词都精准踩在市场的G点上。但只要稍微冷静一下，就可以看出这个项目要...

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eaten","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CRSH":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLA":1.95,"TSLY":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSYY":0.6},"content_text":"画饼大师马斯克又来了。日前，马斯克宣布启动“Terafab”项目，由特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI三家联合，要在美国得州建一座涵盖逻辑、存储和封装的超级芯片工厂，目标年产1太瓦（TW）算力（约1000亿-2000亿颗芯片），相当于当前全球产能的50倍，其中80%用于太空任务。这个饼画得够大——太瓦级产能、太空算力、自建全产业链，每一个词都精准踩在市场的G点上。但只要稍微冷静一下，就可以看出这个项目要落地，面对的可不仅是技术难题，而是资金、设备、人才三重不现实，至少暂时来看，不实现。举个例子，当初台积电在亚利桑那州折腾了几年还没顺利建厂，马斯克凭什么觉得自己能一步到位？我们先来“理解”一下马斯克的这个决定。首先是算力缺口大到“不得不自己造”，当前由于人工智能快速发展，算力需求极度膨胀，仅Optimus人形机器人，马斯克预计未来年产10亿-100亿台，需消耗100-200GW芯片，而太空太阳能AI卫星集群需求更是太瓦级。与此同时，外部的供应链满足不了需求，马斯克直言“台积电、三星的扩张速度远低于我们的需求”，即使到2030年也无法满足。美国电网总容量仅0.5TW，难以承载大规模AI训练与机器人运行；太空则没有昼夜交替、大气衰减，太阳能效率是地面5倍以上。再看看马大师的战略意图：从“买芯片”到“掌握AI全栈”。马斯克要将逻辑芯片、存储芯片、先进封装整合在同一园区，形成设计→制造→测试的全链路闭环，迭代速度预计比现有方案快一个数量级。这意味着他要彻底摆脱对台积电、三星的依赖，控制从芯片到软件的每一层。当然，还有一个是他没有直接说的，为SpaceX IPO背书。Terafab发布恰逢SpaceX计划今夏大规模IPO（估值或超1.75万亿美元），为“太空算力”叙事提供了宏伟的资本故事。当然，马斯克要成功画饼还面前着巨大挑战。有分析师估算，他造这样子的工厂需要花费300亿-450亿美元，而目前特斯拉2025年自由现金流仅60亿美元，缺口巨大。另外，供应链瓶颈不可忽视。将逻辑、存储、封装整合在同一工厂，供应链协调难度不知有多大，光高端EUV光刻机就是无法逃避难题，要知道全球的供应都几乎依赖荷兰ASML，在当前的情况下，荷兰人能什么时候交付都不得而知。而人才短缺同样是个难题，有分析师直言“这比把火箭送上火星还难”。一言之，这是马斯克又一画饼大作，可以把其视为“人类成为太阳系文明”铺路的又一畅想。而落到A股又是另一回事了。“炒股跟着马斯克。”根据以往经验，A股的炒作逻辑向来简单粗暴：马斯克说什么，就炒什么。这次大概率也不例外——半导体设备、先进封装、卫星通信，挨个轮动一遍。我们看看A股的几个潜在受益方向：1、半导体设备，Terafab需要大量半导体设备，若马斯克寻求中国设备商合作（或国内产业对标），长川科技、北方华创、中微公司。2、太空算力配套，80%芯片用于太空，卫星、地面终端产业链受益，信维通信（SpaceX星链地面终端高频连接器传闻）、蓝思科技、晶盛机电。3、先进封装，Terafab强调“封装一体化”，封装环节价值量提升，长电科技、通富微电、华天科技。4、国产芯片替代逻辑，马斯克自建芯片厂可能倒逼国产替代加速，科创芯片ETF（589100/589070）。但必须明白，上述标的只是逻辑推论，而大部分直接受益逻辑是虚的。毕竟Terafab在美国得州，设备采购大概率优先用美国/欧洲供应商，封装配套也同样够不着A股，唯一沾边的星链终端供应商信维通信，到现在还是个传闻，业绩也没见起色。所以饼是马斯克的，热闹是股民的，收益嘛……大概率是游资和更量化的。\n\n美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\r\n            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