直指台积电(TSM.US)产能“触顶”！博通(AVGO.US)公开警示芯片供应链危机 AI军备竞赛遭遇最大掣肘

智通财经03-24

智通财经APP获悉，随着全球AI军备竞赛持续白热化，芯片供应链的脆弱性再度成为焦点。芯片设计巨头博通(AVGO.US)近日公开警示，公司当前正面临供应链约束问题，其关键代工合作伙伴台积电(TSM.US)产能受限尤为突出，成为制约整个行业发展的核心瓶颈。与此同时，中东冲突带来的能源与原材料供应压力，也为全球半导体产业增添新的不确定性。产能“从无限到极限”：博通直指台积电瓶颈博通物理层产品事业部产品...

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Broadcom (AVGO.US) Publicly Warns of Chip Supply Chain Crisis AI Arms Race Meets Biggest Constraints","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGG":0.6,"TSM":1.96,"TSMY":0.6,"03145":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"AVGW":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"AVGX":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"TSMZ":0.6,"STSM":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"AVGO":1.93,"TSMG":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，随着全球AI军备竞赛持续白热化，芯片供应链的脆弱性再度成为焦点。芯片设计巨头博通(AVGO.US)近日公开警示，公司当前正面临供应链约束问题，其关键代工合作伙伴台积电(TSM.US)产能受限尤为突出，成为制约整个行业发展的核心瓶颈。与此同时，中东冲突带来的能源与原材料供应压力，也为全球半导体产业增添新的不确定性。产能“从无限到极限”：博通直指台积电瓶颈博通物理层产品事业部产品营销总监Natarajan Ramachandran周二表示：“我们观察到台积电的产能已触及上限。”他还提到，就在几年前，他还会用“无限产能”来形容台积电。“台积电计划在2027年前持续扩充产能，但在2026年，其产能已然成为瓶颈，甚至在一定程度上卡住了整个供应链的咽喉，”Ramachandran说道。截至发稿，台积电尚未立即回应置评请求。作为全球高端AI芯片主要代工厂，台积电今年1月就曾坦言产能紧张，AI基础设施建设热潮已大量占用其先进制程生产线。这家全球最大的晶圆代工厂——其主要客户还包括英伟达(NVDA.US)与苹果(AAPL.US)——当时也表示，正在努力缩小供需缺口。Ramachandran进一步指出，供应链紧张的问题并非只局限于芯片领域，已蔓延至科技产业链多个环节。“尽管当前行业内供应商众多，但激光器件领域明确存在供应缺口，”他表示，印制电路板(PCB)也成为一个“意想不到”的瓶颈。Ramachandran指出，中国台湾与中国大陆的PCB厂商均面临产能不足问题，导致产品交付周期延长，但并未透露具体供应商名称。为了确保未来数年的生产稳定，众多客户正被迫转向长期协议。据Ramachandran透露，目前不少客户正在与供应商签订长达三到四年的产能保障合同。这一趋势也得到内存芯片巨头三星电子(SSNLF.US)的印证。三星上周表示，正与核心客户合作，将合作协议期限延长至三至五年。这一举措既反映出客户对长期供应链安全的诉求，也体现出供应商希望以此抵御市场需求波动风险。台积电2nm产能告急 英伟达下一代AI芯片平台或被迫调整设计台积电的产能瓶颈还体现在最前沿的2nm制程上。据报道，台积电2nm制程(含后续A16节点)产能已严重供不应求，甚至其最大客户英伟达都可能被迫重新设计下一代AI芯片平台“Feynman”。该平台原本计划于2028年推出，旨在接替当前的Vera Rubin架构，此次若因产能限制调整设计，可能影响其性能目标、发布时间及成本结构。与此同时，Meta(META.US)等科技巨头也加入了2nm制程产能的争夺，进一步加剧供需失衡，使得台积电先进制程的订单排期已延伸至2028年以后。产能紧张也赋予了台积电更强的定价权。有报道称，台积电先进制程将迎来连续四年的涨价潮。这意味着芯片设计公司不仅面临供应短缺，还需应对不断攀升的制造成本，而这些成本最终将传导至AI服务器厂商、云服务提供商乃至终端企业，进一步推高AI基础设施的部署成本。地缘政治“幽灵”：中东战火威胁能源与材料生命线当制造业的物理极限遭遇挑战时，地缘政治的阴云又为供应链平添变数。随着中东战事持续，全球半导体行业正面临关键材料断供的风险，而严重依赖外部能源的中国台湾省尤其脆弱。台湾省的芯片制造业贡献了其约五分之一的经济产值，但整个生态系统高度依赖进口。其中，全球约三分之一的氦气在卡塔尔加工，而硫磺等关键材料则源于石油和天然气精炼。更为关键的是，台湾省的能源供应高度依赖中东——97%的能源需求依赖进口，其中37%的液化天然气(LNG)来自中东，而台积电的电力消耗占台湾地区总发电量的10%，且先进制程对电力稳定性要求极高，毫秒级波动就可能导致晶圆报废。高盛分析师团队警告称，通过霍尔木兹海峡的商业运输仍严重受阻，卡塔尔已宣布不可抗力。对台湾省而言，关键风险不仅是油价，更是天然气的实际可获得性、定价和交付时间。尽管台湾省经济主管部门表示已锁定3月和4月的液化天然气供应，并称本土企业可从美国、澳大利亚等多源采购氦气，但长期冲突可能带来的电力成本飙升和材料短缺，依然是悬在台积电头上的达摩克利斯之剑。摩根士丹利亚洲科技研究主管Shawn Kim指出，霍尔木兹海峡的中断虽不一定会立即停产芯片，但会波及电力成本、材料供应以及AI基础设施的建设经济性。他补充称，建设大型数据中心等高耗能设施的企业可能面临运营成本上升、收入低迷的困境。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2621205238","isCrawlerRequest":true}