中信建投：特斯拉(TSLA.US)美国光伏制造布局提速中国TOPCon专利迎来价值兑现

智通财经网03-24

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，参考市场媒体消息，Tesla(TSLA.US)正计划从中国设备厂商采购价值29亿美元的光伏组件和电池设备，其目标是在2028年底前在美国本土实现100GW从原材料到组件的制造产能。预计Tesla地面光伏组件技术路线将优先选择TOPCon技术，主要考虑TOPCon技术渗透率高，设备、工艺均已十分成熟，能够满足Tesla快速投产需求，且TOPCon组件性价比高，...

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Realization","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"JKS":1.88,"TSYY":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLA":1.95,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLP":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，参考市场媒体消息，Tesla(TSLA.US)正计划从中国设备厂商采购价值29亿美元的光伏组件和电池设备，其目标是在2028年底前在美国本土实现100GW从原材料到组件的制造产能。预计Tesla地面光伏组件技术路线将优先选择TOPCon技术，主要考虑TOPCon技术渗透率高，设备、工艺均已十分成熟，能够满足Tesla快速投产需求，且TOPCon组件性价比高，效率还有提升空间。建议关注晶科能源(688223.SH)、晶澳科技(002459.SZ)、天合光能(688599.SH)中信建投主要观点如下：参考市场媒体消息，Tesla正计划从中国设备厂商采购价值29亿美元(约人民币200亿元)的光伏组件和电池设备，以应对数据中心增长带来的电力需求，其目标是在2028年底前在美国本土实现100GW从原材料到组件的制造产能。预计Tesla地面光伏组件技术路线将优先选择TOPCon技术，主要考虑：1)投产速度快：2025年TOPCon技术渗透率已经达到87.6%，设备、工艺均已十分成熟；2)产品性价比高：TOPCon技术在几种N  型电池路线中资本开支最低，组件量产效率已经来到23.7%，且未来通过边缘钝化、Polyfinger、0B等技术还有望进一步升级。若Tesla确定将TOPCon技术应用于其100GW地面组件产能，综合考虑TOPCon专利壁垒及工艺优势，晶科能源大概率将成为其首选战略合作伙伴。从专利壁垒来看，晶科能源在美国专利商标局(USPTO)持有的有效专利约600-700项，其中授权专利(B1、B2  专利)超过200项，构建了行业领先的N 型技术法律护城河。其中“136 号专利”和“454  号专利”共同锁定了TOPCon电池最核心的背面钝化技术，并且已经在美国市场与东洋/ VSUN的专利纠纷中发挥作用，双方已经和解。从工艺优势来看，晶科能源山西大基地是目前全球光伏行业垂直一体化程度最高、单体规模最大的生产基地，该基地实现了TOPCon组件“单晶硅棒-硅片-高效电池-组件”四大环节超级集群，完美符合Tesla从原材料到组件的生产要求。参考近期爱旭向Maxeon支付的专利费，若Tesla 100GW  TOPCon产能落地，预计晶科能源每年专利费收入区间为30-100亿元。爱旭向Maxeon支付的非美市场BC电池及组件专利授权费约为1分/W，占当前BC组件的售价和利润比重分别约为1%、10%。考虑美国市场光伏组件售价及净利均显著高于其他市场，假设美国本土生产组件价格和净利分别为3元/W、1元/W，对应晶科能源专利费区间为0.03-0.1元/W。晶科能源、晶澳科技、天合光能作为TOPCon第一梯队龙头，其中晶澳科技、天合光能也持有部分TOPCon相关专利，也有望受益Tesla美国产能规划。晶澳科技，天合光能也在北美布局了大量TOPCon相关专利，除了早期与晶科能源一起购买的LG底层专利包外，晶澳科技在北美注册了较多涉及SMBB与高密度封装的专利，天合光能则重点布局了多层钝化膜堆叠及激光掺杂相关专利。投资建议为应对美国数据中心快速增长带来的用电需求，Tesla正在加快建设100GW  TOPCon产能，而TOPCon电池、组件专利目前主要集中在晶科能源、晶澳科技、天合光能3家企业，其中晶科能源作为TOPCon龙头，在专利数量、质量及一体化工艺等方面优势突出，预计将成为Tesla北美100GW产线落地的首选战略合作伙伴，晶澳、天合由于也持有一部分TOPCon核心专利，预计也将受益。风险提示特斯拉项目执行进度及技术路径变更风险。特斯拉100GW产能规划跨度至2028年，项目落地受资金筹措、美国本土供应链完整度及当地政策执行力影响，存在进度不及预期的风险。同时，光伏技术迭代迅速，若特斯拉未来转向钙钛矿叠层或TBC  等其他技术路径，可能导致现有TOPCon专利覆盖率下降，影响长期授权收益。知识产权诉讼及专利被宣告无效风险。当前First  Solar等北美本土巨头持续通过USPTO发起多方复审(IPR)程序，试图挑战中国企业的核心专利有效性。若136号、454号等底层专利在后续诉讼中被判定失效，或竞争对手开发出完全避开现有专利保护范围的高效替代工艺，将削弱中国企业的技术话语权与收费基础。地缘政治与贸易政策变动风险。美国《通胀削减法案》(IRA)对于“受关注外国实体”(FEOC)的界定标准存在动态调整的可能。若美国后续收紧对中国光伏技术输出的监管，或通过行政手段限制Tesla  等本土企业支付技术许可费，将直接影响中国厂商在北美市场的IP 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中信建投：特斯拉(TSLA.US)美国光伏制造布局提速 中国TOPCon专利迎来价值兑现

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中信建投：特斯拉(TSLA.US)美国光伏制造布局提速中国TOPCon专利迎来价值兑现