史上最大造芯计划启动，马斯克胃口为何这么大

澎湃新闻03-24

世界首富、特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克向世界宣告了其迄今为止最具雄心的愿景之一——Terafab。　　3月22日，马斯克在美国得克萨斯州奥斯汀市举办了Terafab项目发布会，宣布正式启动由特斯拉、SpaceX与xAI联合打造的Terafab项目，该项目为2纳米晶圆厂制造项目，被视为马斯克突破全球芯片供应瓶颈的关键举措。　　这个被特斯拉称为“有史以来规模最大的芯片制造工厂”，目标直指每年生产1太瓦...

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big","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLA":1.95,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSYY":0.6},"content_text":"世界首富、特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克向世界宣告了其迄今为止最具雄心的愿景之一——Terafab。\n　　3月22日，马斯克在美国得克萨斯州奥斯汀市举办了Terafab项目发布会，宣布正式启动由特斯拉、SpaceX与xAI联合打造的Terafab项目，该项目为2纳米晶圆厂制造项目，被视为马斯克突破全球芯片供应瓶颈的关键举措。\n　　这个被特斯拉称为“有史以来规模最大的芯片制造工厂”，目标直指每年生产1太瓦（TW）的AI算力芯片，并主要部署至太空。马斯克称，当前全球AI算力年产量约20吉瓦，Terafab的年算力产能相当于当前前者的50倍。\n\n　　特斯拉和SpaceX算力需求远超当前供应\n　　Terafab的目标之宏大，就连马斯克本人在演讲中也用“疯狂”“物理极限”等词汇来形容自己的计划。\n　　此举背后，是全球芯片产能缺口的现实制约，更是马斯克布局太空算力、推进多行星文明的夙愿。在他的蓝图中，Terafab要优先解决短期芯片断供问题，支撑Optimus机器人量产与太空AI卫星组网；中期依靠低成本太空算力，扩大应用场景、推高地球经济体量；而远期来看，则要依托月球基地完成算力跃迁，推动人类成为多行星物种并迈向“银河文明”。\n　　两座晶圆厂，史无前例的全流程闭环生产\n　　为何一定要下场造芯片？在马斯克看来，现有全球芯片产能根本无法匹配他未来的需求。\n　　尽管马斯克明确表示将要亲口告知三星、台积电、美光等现有供应链厂商，会继续采购芯片，且对现有供应链表示感谢，但这些厂商的扩产速度远无法满足他的项目刚需，他直言“要么建成Terafab，要么我们将无芯片可用”。\n　　马斯克介绍，Terafab内设两个晶圆厂，每个晶圆厂专注一种芯片，并将实现全流程闭环生产。\n　　值得一提的是，Terafab将打破全球现有芯片制造的分工模式，将光刻掩膜、芯片制造、封装测试全链条集中在单一厂区内，形成“制作掩膜—芯片制造—测试—优化掩膜—再制造”的极速迭代闭环。\n　　马斯克透露，全球目前尚无任何厂区能将逻辑、存储、封装、测试、光刻掩膜等全部放在一起，实现这一全流程一体化布局，其迭代速度较常规产线高出一个数量级，可支撑算力芯片的极限工艺试验与新物理方向研发。\n　　“我们不光以传统方式生产算力芯片，我认为，有一些非常有趣的新的物理方向是可行的。假以时日我们一定会成功。我们将真正把算力芯片推向物理极限。”马斯克补充说。\n　　应用方面，他介绍，工厂的两个晶圆厂分工明确，聚焦两类芯片量产，精准匹配不同场景需求。\n\n　　马斯克计划生产多种芯片\n　　第一类为边缘端推理优化芯片，主要搭载于Optimus人形机器人与特斯拉自动驾驶系统，其中机器人市场为核心需求。马斯克预判，全球汽车年产能约1亿辆，未来人形机器人年产能将达10亿至100亿台，需求量为汽车的10至100倍，特斯拉目标是占据其中非常大的份额，这类芯片也将随之扩大产能。\n　　第二类为太空高功率定制芯片，专门适配太空极端环境，部署于SpaceX的轨道AI数据中心网络。太空存在高能离子、光子、电子积累等辐射问题，芯片抗干扰、抗老化、抗辐射指标高于地面产品；同时为缩减太空散热器的载荷重量，芯片运行温度将略高于地面常规芯片，工艺参数与容错标准均为专项定制。\n　　算力部署转向太空，预期2至3年内成本就将低于地面\n　　Terafab的布局重心放在太空，核心源于马斯克认为地球能源与算力有天然局限。\n　　他展示的数据显示，地球仅接收太阳总能量的五亿分之一，太阳占太阳系总质量的99.8%，全人类年度电力总产量，仅相当于太阳总能量的万亿分之一，即便人类能源规模提升100万倍，也仅能触及太阳能量的百万分之一，地球算力扩容存在不可突破的天花板。\n　　而太空部署算力则具备显著量化优势：太空无大气衰减、无昼夜季节交替，卫星始终正对太阳，太阳能获取效率为地面5倍以上，无需配套大规模储能电池；太空太阳能板无需厚重的玻璃与框架抵御极端天气，硬件成本更低；反观地球，优质算力部署场地日益稀缺，扩容成本持续攀升，而太空可实现无限扩容，且规模越大单位成本越低。\n　　马斯克预判，在2至3年内，太空AI算力部署成本将低于地面，“一旦入轨成本降下来，把AI算力放到太空就变得几乎是显而易见的极其划算。而且随着规模扩大，太空会越来越便宜，越来越容易；而在地面，随着越来越多的算力部署，空间位置也越来越少。”\n　　因此他认为，算力分配也将按场景拆分，受电力供给限制，地球每年仅部署100至200吉瓦算力（约占总产能20%），剩余太瓦级主力算力（约占总产能的80%）全部送入轨道。\n　　“要达到每年一太瓦的算力，按每吨100千瓦计算，我们大约需要每年向轨道运送1000万吨载荷。我们有信心可以做到这一点，不需要任何新的物理规律，这并不是一件不可能的任务。我相信SpaceX能做到每年将1000万吨送入轨道。”马斯克表示。\n　　规划不止1太瓦，月球基地瞄准千倍算力扩容\n　　Terafab并非马斯克的终极目标。\n　　马斯克还公布远期规划，称将通过在月球建造电磁质量驱动器，实现算力千倍扩容。他认为，月球无大气、重力仅为地球六分之一，无需火箭发射，可通过驱动器将载荷直接加速至逃逸速度，算力规模将在1太瓦基础上提升1000倍（即拍瓦级），大幅压低深空部署成本。\n马斯克展示的月球电磁质量驱动器视频截图\n　　“我真的很希望自己能活着见证月球质量驱动器的建成，那将极其壮观。”马斯克说道。\n　　在他看来，这一规划对应的经济与产能增量清晰可见：月球驱动器落地后，人类可利用太阳能量的百万分之一，这一能量规模有望带动地球经济体量扩张100万倍，“然后我们继续向其他行星、向其他恒星拓展，创造一个我能想象的最激动人心的未来”。\n　　马斯克展望，“我们飞越月球、飞越火星、航行穿过土星环。想象一下，如果你能买到一张飞往土星的船票，甚至说未来去土星可能根本不用买票，而是免费旅行。这听起来很疯狂，但如果经济体量可以增长到当前的100万倍，你的任何需求几乎都能被满足。”\n\n　　马斯克展望未来人类将达到“惊人富足”\n　　威胁台积电？分析人士称仍面临良率等大量难题\n　　Terafab项目的横空出世在半导体业内引发高度关注，甚至引发了人们对代工巨头台积电可能承压的担忧。\n　　不过分析师认为，该计划可能面临巨大的技术、财务和结构性障碍。\n　　从零开始建造一座晶圆厂被广泛认为是现代工业中最具挑战性的工程之一。摩根士丹利分析师将这项工作形容为“艰巨的任务”，并指出此类项目可能耗资超过200亿美元，且需要数年才能完成。\n　　半导体行业高度专业化，像英伟达这样的无晶圆厂的设计公司和专业代工厂之间存在着泾渭分明的界限。而马斯克提出将整合逻辑、存储和先进封装技术，与数十年来行业专业化发展的趋势背道而驰。\n　　芯片制造不仅需要资金，还需要多年大规模生产积累的深厚工艺技术。\n　　有业内人士表示，以2纳米先进制程为起点进入半导体行业的难度极高，建厂甚至还算不上是最大的挑战，良率控制才是马斯克最终要面临的难题。良率取决于稳定的需求和持续的迭代，即使是成熟的企业也难以维持极高的良率水平。\n　　此外，Terafab还面临着多方面的结构性问题。例如在设备供应方面，有外媒指出，先进的极紫外光刻系统依赖少数几家供应商，交付周期长、采购成本高昂。人才同样是一大瓶颈。美国在半导体工程人才储备、晶圆厂建设经验与供应链成熟度上，仍落后于亚洲。\n　　不过也有分析称，若马斯克从封装、供应链整合切入，并与三星、英特尔等合作，长期来看仍有可能改写全球芯片产业格局。\n　　澎湃新闻记者 吴遇利\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：江钰涵","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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