马斯克的挽救计划

爱范儿03-24

上周，科幻电影《挽救计划》以首周末全球 1.4 亿美元票房成为 2026 年开年最大的科幻事件。但同一个周末，奥斯汀发生了另一件更像科幻的事——背后的推手，又是马斯克。去年年底，马斯克在与投资者 Nikhil Kamath 的一场访谈中提到，自己商业帝国的下一个宏大目标是将人工智能带入深空。马斯克将这一构想命名为“银河之心（Galaxy Mind）”，一个旨在利用太阳能为地球轨道以外的 AI 运算...

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卫星，而要大规模利用太阳的能量，就必须进入深空。如果你要利用太阳能量中不可忽视的一部分，必须转向深空中的太阳能 AI 卫星。戴森球计划的构想与之类似而这也是特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI专业技术的“汇合点”。其中，SpaceX 提供成熟的火箭发射与航天器制造能力，负责将AI卫星部署到深空轨道；特斯拉凭借其在太阳能和电池技术领域的积累，为卫星提供高效、持久的能源解决方案；xAI 负责开发能在卫星上大规模运行的前沿人工智能模型。而在上周，马斯克又为这一构想打了块补丁。他宣布，特斯拉将与 SpaceX 联合建设一座名为“Terafab”的半导体工厂，选址位于特斯拉奥斯汀总部附近，由两座彼此独立的晶圆厂组成。按照马斯克的说法，Terafab 将分为两条独立产线，分别对应两类用途不同的芯片。其中一类芯片面向地面应用，主要服务于 Cybercab 自动驾驶出租车和 Optimus 人形机器人。特斯拉预计未来要生产 10 亿台 Optimus 机器人，这部分产能是特斯拉尝试为机器人和自动驾驶业务提前锁定更长期的芯片供给能力而建设的。另一类芯片则面向太空应用。因为太空场景所需的高性能芯片必须针对更严苛的环境重新设计，尤其需要考虑更高温度下的稳定运行能力，所以需要针对太空条件开发的独立产品。通常情况下，一座先进制程晶圆厂的投资规模约为 250 亿至 400 亿美元，建设周期约 3 至 5 年，还要面对设备交付周期长、专业技术人才短缺等现实约束。也正因为如此，马斯克这次公布的并不只是一次常规扩产计划，而是一项制造难度和资本强度都极高的工业项目。按照计划，这座工厂将采用高度集成的“全流程一体化”设计，在单一建筑群内覆盖逻辑电路制造、存储器生产、先进封装、测试以及光刻掩膜制作等核心环节，原本分散在不同厂区、不同供应链节点完成的步骤，将被尽可能压缩进同一个制造体系。左边是特斯拉超级工厂的大小，右边是规划中 Terafab 工厂的大小这种布局在全球范围内几乎没有直接先例。芯片设计完成后，就能在同一地点直接进入晶圆制造、功能测试、掩膜修订和工艺优化，研发和生产之间的反馈回路会被显著缩短，很多原本依赖跨厂协同的迭代流程，也可以在单点体系内完成。这对于强调快速试错和高频迭代的马斯克来说，显然比单纯增加产能更重要。马斯克估计，当前全球人工智能计算的年增量约为 20 吉瓦，而这只占其企业未来需求的约 2 %。而 Terafab 建成后，计划实现年产万亿瓦的芯片算力，相当于两个美国的电力供应总和。此前，外界已经知道特斯拉在研究自建晶圆厂的可能性，但 SpaceX 的加入稍显意外。这使得 Terafab 不再只是特斯拉的供应链延伸项目，而更像是马斯克旗下多家公司共同参与的一项基础设施布局。除了 Terafab 本身，马斯克还带来了一颗名为“AI Sat Mini”的卫星渲染图。这颗卫星属于 SpaceX 的轨道数据中心计划。按照马斯克的说法，每颗 AI Sat Mini 可以通过太阳能提供 100 千瓦电力。但如果要让这套轨道系统具备与 xAI 现有地面数据中心相当的算力规模，SpaceX 需要发射数千颗卫星。这也印证了 Terafab 第二座晶圆厂的定位。它所生产的太空芯片，是为轨道算力体系提供基础支撑的核心部件。马斯克近两年一直试图将几家公司重新组织为一条更完整产业链，特斯拉负责地面终端，SpaceX 推进轨道基础设施，xAI 持续扩大对算力资源的需求。几家公司在业务形态上看似分散，但对芯片、电力和算力的需求正在迅速合流。TeraFab 的出现，某种程度上就是这种合流的结果。从采购端看，马斯克的决定并不难理解。目前，马斯克旗下的核心业务仍然严重依赖外部供应链。特斯拉使用的是三星代工的 AI 4 芯片，xAI 则是英伟达的重要客户。自建晶圆厂本身并不是新鲜事，但真正困难的部分始终在于执行。英特尔在 2021 年 3 月启动了一个叫做“IDM 2.0”的战略，时任 CEO 帕特・基辛格提出，要把英特尔重新塑造成一家同时具备芯片设计和代工能力的综合制造商。按照当时的规划，公司将在亚利桑那州投资 200 亿美元建设两座晶圆厂，在俄亥俄州追加 200 亿美元，并同步推进德国和波兰的扩张项目。但随后几年，由于财务压力和订单不足，项目推进并不顺利。俄亥俄州工厂建设放缓，德国和波兰的扩张计划被取消。英特尔的晶圆工厂与此同时，英特尔营收从 2021 年的 790 亿美元下滑至 2024 年的 531 亿美元，毛利率则从 2019 年的 62 % 降至 32.7 %。代工部门在 2025 年第二季度录得 31.7 亿美元运营亏损。公司随后裁减约 15 % 员工，暂停股息，并削减资本支出。帕特・基辛格于 2024 年底离职，2025 年 3 月，Lip-Bu Tan 接任 CEO。不过，英特尔与 Terafab 并不处于同一条路径上。两者在商业模式、资金结构和项目目标上都有明显差异。英特尔希望建立的是一个面向外部客户的开放代工体系，Terafab 目前展现出来的方向，则更像是一座服务于马斯克内部业务体系的专用制造平台，优先解决特斯拉、SpaceX 和 xAI 的核心芯片需求。但即便Terafab 不必像英特尔那样直接面对外部客户订单的竞争压力，它依然要回答另一个问题：马斯克旗下这些业务，是否真的能够在未来几年消化如此大规模的专用产能。这才是决定 Terafab 最终是成为战略壁垒，还是成为沉重负担的关键。而目前，特斯拉的电动车业务已经连续两年出现销量下滑，被马斯克认为是公司未来的重要增长方向的 Cybercab、Optimus 机器人和轨道数据中心的进展也远不如宣称的那样理想。即使是进展最佳的 Cybercab 车队，与 Waymo 等公司相比，特斯拉现阶段的规模也较小，且仅在有限的几个美国城市运营，其技术方案也远远未到可以规模化运营的程度。目前，TeraFab 还停留在一个非常早期的阶段。项目名称、选址、产品方向、投资规模和部分产能目标已经披露，但特斯拉与 SpaceX 各自承担什么角色，资金如何分配，技术路线如何确定，工厂何时开工，何时量产等关键信息仍未确定。因此，现在还很难判断，Terafab 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