马斯克大手笔：自建全球最大芯片厂，要把80%算力送上太空

21世纪经济报道03-23

美国当地时间3月21日，特斯拉宣布将与SpaceX、xAI合作建设芯片项目TeraFab，目标是实现年产能1太瓦（1万亿瓦）AI算力，打造全球规模最大的芯片制造工厂。据特斯拉披露，TeraFab将是一座垂直整合的芯片工厂，涵盖芯片设计、推理和存储芯片制造、封装与测试全流程，并配备所有必要设备，用于测试、修改和制造芯片。　　在发布会上，马斯克称，现在地球上所有芯片晶圆厂的产能总和约为20吉瓦（1吉瓦...

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space","themeId":"991eeae07e34375733cc3e5df6ce9070","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":1.83,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSL":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"SOXX":1.85,"TESL":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"07766":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSLR":0.6},"content_text":"美国当地时间3月21日，特斯拉宣布将与SpaceX、xAI合作建设芯片项目TeraFab，目标是实现年产能1太瓦（1万亿瓦）AI算力，打造全球规模最大的芯片制造工厂。据特斯拉披露，TeraFab将是一座垂直整合的芯片工厂，涵盖芯片设计、推理和存储芯片制造、封装与测试全流程，并配备所有必要设备，用于测试、修改和制造芯片。　　在发布会上，马斯克称，现在地球上所有芯片晶圆厂的产能总和约为20吉瓦（1吉瓦=0.001太瓦），仅相当于其所需算力的2%左右。马斯克在发言中强调了对现有供应链的依赖，也表达了对第三方扩产速度的无奈。他透露，自己曾向三星、台积电和美光等供应商承诺，会买下它们所能生产的所有芯片，“但他们扩张产能的速度远低于我们的期望。”　　“所以，要么我们自己建芯片工厂，要么就没有芯片可用。因为我们需要芯片，所以我们决定建造TeraFab。”马斯克说。　　一家工厂整合芯片设计、流片、封测　　TeraFab的核心亮点在于其工艺整合模式。根据马斯克描述，位于美国得州奥斯汀的先进制程工厂将集成光刻掩模制作、逻辑芯片生产、存储芯片生产、封装以及测试等全套流程，实现“芯片设计、流片、测试、改版掩模、再流片”的快速迭代。所有环节都在同一工厂内反复进行，以极快速度改进芯片设计。　　“据我所知，这种模式目前在全世界任何地方都不存在，”马斯克表示，“我认为这种迭代改进的速度，可能比全球其他任何模式都快一个数量级。”　　按照规划，TeraFab瞄准2纳米先进制程，将主要聚焦两类芯片的量产：一类是主要用于特斯拉汽车及Optimus人形机器人的芯片，针对边缘计算和推理优化，包括特斯拉正在研发的AI5和下一代芯片AI6；另一类则是专为太空环境与低轨AI卫星打造的太空算力芯片，首款产品命名为D3。此类芯片针对太空辐射环境进行了专门防护设计，并在热管理策略上有别于地面产品，通过适度提高运行温度以减轻散热器重量。　　TeraFab规划年产能为1000亿至2000亿颗AI及存储芯片，相当于每月约10万片晶圆投片量。首批量产芯片为AI5，计划于2027年投产，用于全自动驾驶、人形机器人Optimus、无人出租车Cybercab及数据中心。　　马斯克还指出，由于在地球上建设大规模数据中心面临电力限制，只有在太空中充分利用太阳能才能实现更大规模计算。TeraFab的芯片产能中，将有20%用于特斯拉汽车和Optimus机器人，剩余80%用于在太空搭建超大规模计算集群，“太空将代表绝大多数算力”。　　马斯克在发布会上首次展示了一个概念性太空AI计算卫星，功率约为100千瓦，配备太阳能电池板和散热器，未来可达到兆瓦级别。　　他甚至还设想在月球建设发射基地，进一步将太空算力规模提升至1拍瓦，即1太瓦的1000倍。　　为实现该计划，马斯克估算需要将约1000万吨物资送入轨道。SpaceX正推进Starship V3版本的运力升级，将单次载荷从100吨提升至200吨；Starship V4将进一步提升载荷能力。　　马斯克表示，TeraFab最终将协助人类成为能够利用其他行星与恒星资源的“银河文明”，但他未公布TeraFab量产的具体时间表。　　先进制程、资金压力与时间表考验并存　　然而，业界对TeraFab项目的可行性仍持保留态度。　　半导体制造涉及数百亿美元规模投资、极紫外光（EUV）光刻机供应以及专业人才。英伟达CEO黄仁勋曾指出，建设先进芯片制造工厂极其困难，这不只是建厂房的问题，芯片工厂需要数十年的工程、科学技术与工艺经验积累。此外，先进制程高度依赖EUV光刻机，而该设备供应商集中、交期长且成本昂贵，并非单靠资金即可快速取得。　　资金方面，有业内人士表示，建造一座采用2纳米先进制程的晶圆厂，通常需要250亿美元至400亿美元投资，建设周期长达3至5年。这对于特斯拉当前的财务状况构成了巨大压力。马斯克并未透露TeraFab的初期投资金额，此前有消息称，该数字介于200亿美元至250亿美元之间。　　摩根士丹利分析师Andrew Percoco将TeraFab项目称为一项“艰巨的任务”。他估算，该设施的全部成本可能会飙升至350亿美元至400亿美元。该分析师进一步警告称，即使在最乐观的情境下，该工厂在2028年之前也无法实际生产出芯片。　　另一家投行Wedbush的分析师Dan Ives称，TeraFab项目应是由特斯拉主导，并与潜在芯片伙伴合作推进的项目。他认为，打造太空算力集群是明智的AI战略，但独立建造芯片工厂的成本与周期不可控。　　此前，马斯克曾表示，其构想中的芯片工厂与传统芯片工厂截然不同。作为人类最尖端的科技产物之一，芯片的传统制造过程高度依赖极其严格的无尘车间，工作人员必须穿着防尘服并佩戴面罩。然而，马斯克却曾语出惊人地表示，他的芯片工厂无需无尘环境，“你甚至可以在里面抽烟”。　　不过，马斯克这种以轻松口吻描述晶圆厂运作的言论，引发了业界质疑，部分业内人士认为，这表明他严重低估了先进制程对无尘环境及精细管理的严苛要求。　　将逆转行业分工模式？　　值得注意的是，研究机构TriOrient研究副总裁、资深半导体分析师Dan Nystedt对TeraFab整合模式表达了一定认可。他指出，TeraFab可能代表着对半导体行业数十年专业化分工的一次逆转。　　“过去几十年，半导体行业经历了‘大爆炸’，演化出ASML、台积电、英伟达等高度专业化分工的巨头。而TeraFab则被视为一场‘大坍缩’，它将逻辑芯片、存储器、先进封装乃至光刻和掩模制造全部收拢回同一个屋檐下，这是一种看似复古却具有颠覆性的逆向操作。”Dan Nystedt称。　　进一步来看，Dan Nystedt认为，TeraFab的核心优势在于极快的设计与制造反馈闭环，从而不断试错并突破物理和计算的极限。这种频繁修改底层芯片设计的做法，在传统通用芯片市场并不可行，因为会面临严重的系统兼容性问题。但TeraFab是为特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI的专有生态系统量身定制的，因此，TeraFab不仅仅是一个传统的芯片厂，更接近一个“系统级晶圆厂”：每次迭代优化的都是整个软硬件栈，AI则可能进一步加速电路与软件的协同设计。（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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