重蹈俄乌冲突覆辙，避险之王黄金缘何再度“失灵”

21世纪经济报道03-20

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！（资料图）　　南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌报道　　作为传统的避险之王，中东炮火下黄金却没有表现出其避险属性，本周“意外”的跌势令投资者震惊。　　中东冲突推高能源价格，引发通胀担忧，市场因此预期主要央行将维持借贷成本在高位，金价连续七个交易日走低。3月19日，现货金收跌3.5%，至每盎司4648.23美元。...

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Razaqzada对记者表示，黄金夹在两股对立的力量之间：通常利好避险资产的地缘政治紧张局势，以及收益率上升和美元走强主导的宏观经济环境。此前黄金凭借亮眼的韧性扛住了这些利空。但在过去几周里，情况开始不妙。即使地缘政治紧张局势提供了一定的避险需求，但宏观因素在很大程度上压制了这一点。\n　　黄金本身不产生收益，在低利率环境中表现更佳。如今，交易员已不再预期美联储今年会放松货币政策，甚至开始对潜在的加息行动进行对冲。\n　　金价重蹈俄乌冲突覆辙\n　　类似的逻辑在2022年也曾上演。俄乌冲突后，能源价格飙升推高通胀，黄金随即从2022年4月起连跌七个月。\n　　Razaqzada分析称，能源价格上涨重新引发了通胀担忧，并推动政府债券收益率上升，投资者重新评估利率前景。降息预期大幅收窄，政策预期的转变进一步强化了美元。对于黄金来说，这造成了棘手的情况。收益率上升通常对黄金等非收益资产来说是阻力。\n　　美元、美债收益率在冲突中走高，由于黄金以美元计价，这使得其他货币持有者购买黄金的成本相对提高。\n　　在Razaqzada看来，黄金仍处于“宏观激流”之中。如果油价开始企稳，债券收益率回落，黄金可能迅速重新获得上涨势头。不过，就目前各种因素的平衡来看，主导近期前景的大概还是波动，而非明确的趋势。\n　　流动性压力也是重要因素。渣打银行全球大宗商品研究主管Suki Cooper指出，鉴于过去两年金银价格大幅上涨，部分投资者选择兑现盈利，以补充其他资产的亏损，例如应对股市下跌引发的追加保证金需求。\n　　抄底时机或尚未到来\n　　参考俄乌冲突的历史经验，金价或许尚未到底。\n　　前摩根大通贵金属交易员Robert Gottlieb对投资者发出警示：不要急于抄底，目前市场波动性过大。在波动性开始收窄、价格企稳整固之前，卖压可能仍将持续。\n　　Nemo.money市场分析师Jamie Dutta表示，投资者担心在能源价格高企的背景下，利率可能在更长时间内维持高位。伊朗冲突持续时间越长，这种情形出现的可能性就越大，这将削弱黄金的吸引力。\n　　在美国上周初请失业金人数数据公布后，交易员不再押注美联储2026年降息。与此同时，交易员也提高对欧洲央行加息的押注，认为今年有第三次加息的概率为75%。\n　　展望未来，杰富瑞分析师Christopher Lafemina警告称，在冲突长期化的情景下，更高的利率预期和更强的美元可能对黄金形成进一步压制。\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：韦子蓉","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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