从微软到英伟达再到Meta：Nebius凭什么赢得科技三巨头“用钱投票”？

智通财经03-18

Nebius 获得英伟达20亿美元投资及Meta Platforms270亿美元GPU基础设施订单，市场信心得到重大提振。Nebius管理层展现出严谨执行力，如期兑现产能承诺，并对AI基础设施增长设定切实预期。近日宣布的债券发行虽增加风险，但对于Nebius加速实现2027年营收增长至250%(超越市场预期的186%)而言实属必要。该股目前估值仅为2026年前瞻营收的10倍左右，随着营收增长加速，...

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Group N.V.而言，上周堪称迄今表现最佳的一周，股价因英伟达对其注资20亿美元的消息而攀升。英伟达此番投资是对Nebius投下的重磅信任票，强烈暗示英伟达正通过购入Nebius股份，实现在云计算行业的多元化布局或风险对冲。Uttam认为，Nebius管理层在推动AI基础设施建设中展现的稳定性与可靠性，对英伟达以及越来越多关注其GPU基础设施组合的超大规模云服务商客户具有潜在吸引力。前几日，Meta Platforms与Nebius达成的270亿美元GPU基础设施巨额订单，再次印证了Nebius的重要性及其为利益相关方可靠提供GPU基础设施的关键角色。随后，Nebius宣布发行可转换债券后股价承压，市场目光重新聚焦于运营此类资本密集型新创云企业所需的资金投入。但Nebius营收实现爆发式增长的潜力极为强劲，这正是Uttam持续看好这家新创云公司的原因，下文将详述。英伟达与Meta的交易对Nebius及投资者的意义去年9月，在阐述微软170亿美元订单如何为Nebius每年至少增加35亿美元ARR铺路后，分析师Uttam将看涨预期进行了双重升级，彼时便强烈怀疑，\"除微软外，四大超大规模云服务商中至少还有一家\"会向Nebius授予数十亿美元合同。至去年12月，Nebius管理层宣布已签约Meta Platforms作为其第二大超大规模客户，达成一份为期5年、价值30亿美元的协议。起初，Uttam对合同规模略感困惑，且鉴于Nebius多家同行斩获超50亿美元订单，去年第四季度未更新观点。然而，Nebius管理层在第三季度电话会议中确实留下了蛛丝马迹，强烈暗示Meta方面将有更多合作：\"我们当时与Meta又签署了一项重大协议，未来5年价值约30亿美元。事实上，对此类产能的需求极为旺盛，合同规模受限于我们当时的可用产能，这意味着若产能更多，我们本可售出更多。此项交易是在我们9月初宣布的微软合同(合同价值介于174亿至194亿美元)之外的又一成果。如先前所言，我们预计将签署更多此类长期大单，我们正在兑现这一承诺。\"Uttam从管理层去年第三季度电话会议内容中得出的唯一直接结论是：Nebius仅向Meta承诺了其实际能交付的部分。随后管理层按承诺如实向市场公布了交易——不多不少。当时，管理层预计确保获得2.6 GW的签约电力，其中根据先前计划，今年将有约1 GW的GPU产能上线。今年2月，管理层透露已确保获得2 GW签约电力，并将目标提升至确保3 GW签约电力，同时维持今年上线约1 GW GPU产能的目标不变。Nebius 2月还透露，先前作为30亿美元合同一部分向Meta Platforms承诺的所有产能已全部交付给Meta。这种履约能力或许足以让Meta团队授予Nebius更大合同，从而促成昨日宣布的270亿美元新订单。根据昨日公告，Nebius现承诺向Meta Platforms额外交付GPU产能，此项为期五年的交易分两级结构，总值270亿美元。第一级GPU产能价值120亿美元远期营收，是为Meta Platforms专门打造的专用级GPU产能，将采用英伟达Vera-Rubin平台，并从2027年起陆续上线。剩余150亿美元的远期承诺，将在Nebius于未来五年内履行完对微软(170亿美元承诺)等其他客户的义务后，再向Meta交付。去年的微软170亿美元合同和Meta Platforms 30亿美元合同，意味着今年约有35亿美元的远期营收。据Uttam估算，这将是2025年营收的6.2倍，略高于33亿美元的市场预期中值。基于Nebius设定的2026年确保3 GW签约电力/1 GW在线电力的产能组合目标，分析师此前预测其2027年营收中值为95亿美元，约为2026年营收的3倍。此次270亿美元的Meta订单无疑将改变明年的营收预期，Nebius明年极有可能实现最低115亿至120亿美元的远期营收，意味着2027年营收增长率将达3.5至3.6倍。显然，项目执行延迟和融资风险并存。但Uttam认为，英伟达的20亿美元投资将对Nebius起到关键支持作用。目前，该分析师对Nebius管理层做出如下断言：切勿轻视，他们是务实的实干派。Nebius管理层只承诺能做到的事，只向投资者公布能落实的订单，同时就未来产能向投资者设定现实预期。Uttam坚信，Nebius现任管理团队深知AI基础设施建设时代的利害关系，也明白领先对手赢得AI推理竞赛对巨头们的重要性。Nebius清楚即将到来的AI资本支出的规模与意义，若能执行得当，其将轻松成长为AI行业最关键的基础设施合作伙伴之一，连接起英伟达等供应商、超大规模云服务商及顶尖AI前沿实验室。Nebius估值过低目前，Nebius股价对应2026年前瞻营收的估值倍数约为10倍。这一倍数接近其历史交易区间的底部(约6倍附近)，而非顶部。因此，Nebius的前瞻营收倍数有充足的上行扩张空间。今年，Nebius 2026年营收增长预计将进一步加速，因此其估值至少应达到15倍前瞻营收，意味着较当前水平有超47%的上涨空间。风险及其他注意事项投资者需注意的首要风险是收入集中度风险。目前，微软和Meta Platforms是其两大客户和收入来源。另外两大风险是执行不力及项目资金枯竭的可能性。Nebius规模更大的同行CoreWeave已证明了执行失误对前景的损害。Uttam认为，Nebius管理层在管理这些风险方面能力更强，并已展现出协调各方利益相关者的能力。例如，英伟达的20亿美元投资或可作为某种担保，助力Nebius以有利利率获取融资。获得英伟达投资也使得管理层无需动用对股东具有稀释作用的ATM发行。对英伟达而言，这家GPU制造商是在新创云领域进行风险对冲。他们并未将全部筹码押注于CoreWeave，而是通过投资Nebius实现多元化布局，后者已清晰展示出快速且可持续增长新创云业务的能力。今早公司宣布发行约40亿美元私募可转债后，股价面临压力。这令市场目光重回运营Nebius这类新创云企业所需的巨额资本。但Uttam认为，投资者应关注Nebius管理层的运营效率，他们正严谨掌舵，引领公司迈向营收数倍增长的时代。总之，投资Nebius确实存在风险，其中执行与资金风险大于集中度风险。但Uttam相信，Nebius在履行承诺时，始终将客户与股东利益置于首位。英伟达GTC 2026大会正在进行中，Nebius强调了其\"代币工厂\"如何使其NeoCloud推理平台愿景更贴近英伟达对机器人与物理AI的构想。这种与英伟达关系的深化对Nebius极具建设性，投资者应关注GTC 2026的更多更新。结论分析师Uttam持续强烈看好Nebius，尤其是在公司引入英伟达成为重要股东并斩获Meta Platforms 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