中信证券：VLCC集中度提升重塑运价机制 2026年油运龙头利润有望创新高

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智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，油运估值端和资产端结构性机会有望延续，地缘冲突带来的供应链重构，成为本轮油运周期的核心驱动。Sinokor运力快速扩张带来的集中度提升成为本轮周期VLCC供给端前所未有的革命性变化，料通过和MSC、Trafigura形成类联盟，开创在油轮市场部分时段“停航挺价”的先例。相对于集装箱和干散货市场，VLCC市场规模相对较小，“类联盟”趋势&“停航挺价”等对运价...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1415722.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，油运估值端和资产端结构性机会有望延续，地缘冲突带来的供应链重构，成为本轮油运周期的核心驱动。Sinokor运力快速扩张带来的集中度提升成为本轮周期VLCC供给端前所未有的革命性变化，料通过和MSC、Trafigura形成类联盟，开创在油轮市场部分时段“停航挺价”的先例。相对于集装箱和干散货市场，VLCC市场规模相对较小，“类联盟”趋势&“停航挺价”等对运价...</p>\n\n<a 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2026","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1.5,"06030":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，油运估值端和资产端结构性机会有望延续，地缘冲突带来的供应链重构，成为本轮油运周期的核心驱动。Sinokor运力快速扩张带来的集中度提升成为本轮周期VLCC供给端前所未有的革命性变化，料通过和MSC、Trafigura形成类联盟，开创在油轮市场部分时段“停航挺价”的先例。相对于集装箱和干散货市场，VLCC市场规模相对较小，“类联盟”趋势&“停航挺价”等对运价机制重塑亦更为显著和持久。地缘因素主导背景下，伊朗事件等地缘事件强化油运行业周期动能，2026年油运龙头利润有望创新高。中信证券主要观点如下：再次强调重视VLCC集中度的提升带来运价机制重塑，集中度提升和期租运价繁荣相互促进。Sinokor运力快速扩张带来的集中度提升成为本轮VLCC供给端前所未有的革命性变化，料通过和MSC、Trafigura形成类联盟，开创油轮市场部分时段“停航挺价”的先例，再次强调“重视运价机制重塑”。通过购买二手船舶+期租运力锁定的VLCC运力扩张，目前形成VLCC历史最大运力池POOL。行业供给端由分散市场向“准联盟化”结构演变，议价能力明显增强。对于盈利能力方面，运价机制改变，盈利或将大幅抬升，一年期租金已突破11万美元/天。目前Sinokor控制运力在合规在运市场占比近25%，运价上行带来的租金盈余亦成为驱动集中度提升的支撑，VLCC供给端强约束背景下“类联盟”趋势强化成为油轮周期爆发的重要支撑。周期繁荣期运力大幅扩张放大Beta：受益中国基建大周期，BDI指数从2002年的882点最高升至11793点，2002-2008年TMT控制运力规模从12-15艘最终扩张至105艘左右增长7倍，最终传导至利润端。复盘TMT的运力扩张路径，2002年TMT完成管理层交接，新任管理层判断中国进入WTO后干散货需求有望迎来爆发，开始进行规模扩张。2002年BDI均值仅为1138.6，处历史性低点。2003年受益于中国快速发展的房地产产业链，铁矿石进口量和粗钢产量快速增长，其中2003年中国铁矿石进口量同比增长32.9%，粗钢产量同比增长21.9%。TMT瞄准机会开始扩张Capesize运力，2004/2005/2006年分别下单5/15/20艘Capesize订单。根据Clarksons数据，2005/2006/2007全球干散货需求分别同比增长4.5%/9.4%/8.4%，最终推升BDI指数在2008年最高升至11793点，较2002年初的882点增长12倍。TMT也是在这一轮干散货周期下完成运力规模的大幅扩张，Capesize船队从0增长至42艘，Panamax船队从1增长至35艘，通过自建和租入方式完成运力扩张，2002-08年TMT控制运力规模从12-15艘最终扩张至105艘左右增长7倍。关注霍尔木兹海峡通行边际变化，短期调整供应链方式带来运距拉长，一旦局势缓和，补库需求亦有望成为周期上行的催化剂。根据船视宝数据，3月12日~16日霍尔木兹海峡船舶通过量为通行量4/2/6/7/7艘(2月27日为127艘)，霍尔木兹海峡通行受阻重塑能源格局。该行预计海峡正常通过量为原油1500万桶/天，考虑延布港、富查伊拉港的出货能力，保守估计或仍存600~700万桶/天以上的缺口。经霍尔木兹流向中国/印度/日本/韩国的原油体量分别占其进口量的46.1%/43.5%/66.9%/61.8%，短期通过释放战略库存，调整供应链方式来对冲部分影响，运距拉长显而易见，其中延布港运距增加18%、美湾则进一步增长30%以上。同时关注中期通行能力恢复带来的需求“补库”、若此过程中出现运力拥堵，景气周期有望进一步延长。风险因素：VLCC运力规模大幅增长；下游补库需求不及预期；Sinokor运力扩张不及预期；地缘冲突变动超预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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