瑞银下调Q1交付预期特斯拉(TSLA.US)股价却未必看“卖车”脸色

智通财经03-20

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银近期发布特斯拉(TSLA.US)的研报，预计特斯拉2026年第一季度交付量为34.5万辆，同比增长2%，环比下降18%。该数值相较于该行最初对2026年一季度的36万辆预测有所下调，且较彭博一致预期的37.1万辆低7%(目前尚未获取公司汇总的市场共识数据，预计下周发布)。不过该行认为，这一预测与买方机构33万-35万辆的预期区间更为契合。目前实际交付数据或略低于该行的预测，...

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Face","themeId":"f16d42ba424a369196f51382f2b1e630","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TLA":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLA":1.97,"TSLQ":0.6,"TEST":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，瑞银近期发布特斯拉(TSLA.US)的研报，预计特斯拉2026年第一季度交付量为34.5万辆，同比增长2%，环比下降18%。该数值相较于该行最初对2026年一季度的36万辆预测有所下调，且较彭博一致预期的37.1万辆低7%(目前尚未获取公司汇总的市场共识数据，预计下周发布)。不过该行认为，这一预测与买方机构33万-35万辆的预期区间更为契合。目前实际交付数据或略低于该行的预测，但不排除季末出现交付冲刺的可能性。该行同时预测，公司一季度储能部署量为15.1吉瓦时，同比增长45%，环比增长6%。特斯拉预计将于4月2日公布2026年第一季度交付数据。交付量对公司股价还有影响吗?或许早已不如往昔。投资者对特斯拉传统汽车业务及基本面的讨论热度已大幅降低。在该行看来，公司股价如今由自动驾驶出租车、擎天柱人形机器人等人工智能业务的发展叙事和未来潜力主导。近期，市场对泰拉工厂及太阳能业务的关注也有所提升。因此，这些新业务的进展和最新动态，对股价的影响更为关键。近期投资者反馈显示，自动驾驶出租车和擎天柱的业务更新进度慢于预期，相关信息披露也较为平淡。英伟达发布阿尔帕马约自动驾驶平台，以及Waymo等企业加速自动驾驶业务布局后，市场愈发认为，特斯拉难以在自动驾驶出租车领域形成可持续的差异化竞争优势。尽管该行认为，市场情绪仍将是推动公司股价的核心因素(其影响远大于汽车交付量)，但特斯拉的现金流仍主要由传统汽车业务支撑，而这些现金流正是公司增长投资的资金来源，特斯拉今年的资本支出高达200亿美元。该行对2026年一季度交付量的预测调整，主要基于以下几方面因素：美国纯电动汽车市场需求走弱，且Model S和Model X车型逐步减产(不过该行预计未来数个季度，该两款车型仍将维持交付)。据汽车数据公司的估算数据，特斯拉1-2月的交付量为7.86万辆，较2025年一季度前两月的交付水平下降6%，较2025年四季度前两月下降2%。目前，特斯拉针对Model Y推出72个月0利率贷款方案，为所有新款特斯拉车型提供30天自动驾驶(监督模式)试用服务，且截至3月31日，车主可将现有车辆的自动驾驶(监督模式)权益转移至新购特斯拉车辆。此外，特斯拉新款Model 3推出租赁方案，月租金399美元，首付3000美元。欧洲市场：本季度前两个月，欧洲前八大市场的交付量同比下降约4%，但该行认为整体需求基本持平，其他欧洲国家的市场表现或有所提振。本季度至今，德国市场交付量同比增长32%、法国同比增长24%，而英国同比大跌41%、荷兰同比暴跌56%。此外，2025年一季度欧洲市场的交付基数本就处于低位，且欧洲市场的交付通常集中在季度第三个月。本季度前两个月，欧洲主要国家的交付表现如下：德国：同比增长32%，环比增长42%法国：同比增长24%，环比增长30%英国：同比下降41%，环比下降27%荷兰：同比下降56%，环比下降63%比利时：同比下降8%，环比增长36%西班牙：同比增长73%，环比增长5%意大利：同比增长20%，环比下降2%挪威：同比下降19%，环比暴跌81%中国市场：受春节时间节点影响，2025年同期基数较低，本季度前两个月，特斯拉批发量同比增长36%，环比下降14%。批发量更能反映生产端情况，因其包含出口数据。本季度至今，特斯拉出口量同比大涨112%，环比增长45%，这一数据也为该行对其他地区的交付预测提供了依据。不含出口的中国本土零售交付量，本季度前两个月同比下降6%，环比暴跌42%。特斯拉将7年超低利率和5年免息融资方案的有效期延长至2026年3月31日。该行认为，除美、欧、中三大核心市场外，特斯拉在其他地区的交付量将实现增长。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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瑞银下调Q1交付预期 特斯拉(TSLA.US)股价却未必看“卖车”脸色

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瑞银下调Q1交付预期特斯拉(TSLA.US)股价却未必看“卖车”脸色