谷歌究竟会不会给Gemini加广告？

蓝鲸财经03-20

文/刀客doc01谷歌对 Gemini商业化的态度，正在变得越来越微妙。1月份，也就是在OpenAI宣布做广告业务后的一周后，谷歌DeepMind首席执行官 Demis Hassabis在达沃斯论坛上不断被问及Gemini是不是加广告的问题，他断然否定，称谷歌“没有任何计划”。3月份，谷歌知识与信息业务高级副总裁 Nick Fox 在接受《连线》采访时似乎又松口了，称“并不排除这种可能”。Fox的...

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在接受《连线》采访时似乎又松口了，称“并不排除这种可能”。Fox的原话是：“我们从 AI Mode 中广告实验获得的经验，未来很可能会延续到谷歌在 Gemini App 里想做的事情上。听起来可能有点奇怪，但我们的研究表明，用户其实是喜欢在搜索的语境里看到广告的。随着时间推移，我们会弄清楚 Gemini App 里什么样的方式才是合适的。”Demis和Nick的两种表态，未必真的是内部有分歧。我猜，更大可能是口径时间落点不同：一个谈的是现在不做，一个留的是以后未必不做。Nick Fox是少数直接向Sundar Pichai汇报的核心高管之一。2024年，他接手了 Knowledge & Information部门，这也是谷歌现阶段最成熟、最赚钱的一块业务，范围覆盖Search、Ads、Geo 和 Commerce。说白了，他站在谷歌最核心的搜索与商业化系统里，看的首先是流量怎么承接、广告怎么延续。Gemini则属于DeepMind，由Demis Hassabis负责。从组织上看，Gemini 的产品演进、能力边界、长期定位，更多还是掌握在 AI 这条线上。这也决定了，两边对Gemini的发展路线，本来就不会完全一致。一个偏长期，一个偏现实。放在现在这个阶段，不同高管的公开表态出现一点时差，不奇怪。02一边是 ChatGPT 开始测试广告，一边是谷歌手里握着全球最成熟的广告机器，很多人自然会觉得，Gemini 迟早也会走到这一步。但拿 OpenAI做观照，去直接套看Gemini的商业化，没多大意思。至少在商业化这件事上，两家公司面对的根本不是同一道题。OpenAI需要更快证明一件事：庞大的免费用户流量，最后能不能变成收入，因为它没有一台像搜索广告那样的现金牛，没有替新产品争取更长的缓冲时间。广告对 OpenAI 来说是必选题。据报道，OpenAI 的目标是在 2026 年将300亿美元的收入再翻一倍以上，其中相当一部分增长，市场普遍认为会来自ChatGPT。Gemini的处境就从容得多。2025年，谷歌年收入首次超过 4000 亿美元，搜索和广告业务作为现金奶牛还在不断吐出现金。它根本不差钱，并不需要靠 Gemini 立刻挣钱。也正因为如此，谷歌对 Gemini 商业化的节奏，反而显得更克制。从Nick Fox的采访回应看，谷歌目前在 AI 广告上的布局落点，仍然放在 AI Mode 和 AI Overviews 上。首先，是用AI继续加固原有广告系统的效率。Nick Fox提到，AI 模型正在帮助谷歌更准确地预测一条广告在某个查询下会不会被点击、会不会带来转化。对谷歌来说，这是最稳妥的一种 AI 商业化路径。另外，是把 AI 变成广告主侧的生产力工具，用AI把广告的制作和投放这些复杂劳动提前处理掉，帮他们降低投放门槛，提高生成效率，反过来加深整套广告系统的使用深度和黏性。再往最后看，才是AI在新交互场景里的广告试水。在AI Mode、AI Overviews 这些地方，谷歌已经在摸索广告怎么放、放到什么程度、用户会不会接受。而且，AI Mode 和 AI Overviews 本身就长在搜索体系里。前者更像搜索里的对话式 AI 模式，用户可以连续追问，让系统去拆解和整合更复杂的问题后者更像传统搜索结果页顶部的 AI 摘要层，先把重点快速拎出来。两者依然还是搜索业务的延伸。用户进入 Search 场景时，本来就知道自己身处一个可能会看到广告的环境里。搜索页上出现商业信息，对多数人来说是熟悉秩序的一部分。哪怕结果变成 AI 生成，只要广告被清楚标注、保持相关，用户的反弹通常也不会太大。03按谷歌现在对产品的划分，搜索正在变成 AI搜索，而 Gemini 更接近一个私人助理，一个围绕个人任务、个人上下文、个人意图展开的助手。这两者当然有交叉，但气质不一样，用户容忍度也不一样。搜索结果里有广告，用户早就习惯且默认了，但如果一个不断被塑造成“私人助理”的产品，突然开始夹带商业信息，用户会觉得这个角色变味了。私人助理这个定位，对用户端是一个非常了不起的定位。但是站在营销视角，这个定位有个很致命的缺陷：你到底是站在我这边替我做判断，还是站在商家那边借我的信任完成推荐？不管是Gemini，还是ChatGPT，平台怎么承诺是一回事，但这个角色一旦和商业推荐绑在一起，在根儿上就是拧巴的。这大概才是谷歌真正在意的地方。2026 年初，谷歌在Gemini里推出了个人智能(PersonalIntelligence)，允许用户主动连接Gmail、Google Photos、YouTube和Search，让Gemini基于这些个人上下文提供更贴身的回答。后续这项能力又继续扩展到 AI Mode in Search 和 Gemini in Chrome。谷歌也在反复强调，这项功能由用户自主开启，哪些应用接入、接到什么程度，都由用户自己决定。但放在产品演进上看，Gemini 正在往更深的个人上下文里走。它接 Gmail，接 Photos，接 Calendar 一类日程信息，读收据，读行程，慢慢理解用户正在经历什么。一旦产品走到这里，广告问题就会变得敏感得多。这是一个更深层的信任问题。这也是为什么，谷歌宁可先在 AI Search 的延长线上试广告，也没有急着把 Gemini 直接推向商业化前台。在一个不断往私人助理方向塑形的产品里，广告会更直接地影响用户对Gemini角色边界的信任。04当然，谷歌的顾虑还不只是产品角色的问题。它身上还有另一层更重的东西：大厂包袱。谷歌和 OpenAI，都是这一轮 AI 竞赛里最受关注的公司，但社会公众看待它们的方式，并不一样。谷歌已经统治搜索、广告、邮箱、地图、安卓、浏览器很多年了，也已经在平台权力、数据边界、商业化正当性这些问题上，被审视了太多年。不管是反垄断还是隐私争议，谷歌一直都在聚光灯下，也一直是美国和欧盟科技监管的重点对象。也就是说，它今天任何一个整合搜索、数据、广告的动作，都会被天然放大。同样是基于上下文去做推荐广告，放在 OpenAI 身上，外界依然视之为一个先锋感的新物种，一个巨头的挑战者。而古往今来，人们总习惯把这种人置入“少年屠龙”的故事框架里。屠龙者往往能得到更多的宽容，人性使然。所以舆论往往会先给OpenAI一点道德缓冲。大家默认，它是在试着撬动一个早已稳固的秩序。而谷歌一旦出手，外界先想到的通常是扩张和垄断：你本来就知道我很多隐私，现在是不是准备知道得更多，还要用我的隐私去赚更多钱？这两种态度或许是双标，也是一种现实。这才是谷歌的难处。OpenAI 今天讨论广告，更多还是一个新产品怎么守住体验边界的问题；谷歌讨论广告，很快就会变成一个老平台如何处理数据权力、商业化冲动和用户信任之间关系的问题。所以，谷歌在 Gemini 广告这件事上显得谨慎，不只是因为不差钱，也不只是因为 Gemini 还在产品塑形期。更深的一层，也可能是它没有 OpenAI 那样的缓冲期。05其实，就算谷歌未来真的在 Gemini 里引入广告，这件事短期内对它的收入意义，可能也没有想象得那么大。谷歌已经有一套极成熟的广告系统。Gemini如果开放广告，最先流进去的广告费，大概率是广告主把原来投在谷歌搜索、YouTube、Shopping、Maps、本地服务里的钱，重新分出一部分，迁移到新的交互场景里。说得再直白一点，这更像左兜进右兜。对谷歌来说，这不是坏事。它可以提前把用户在新交互场景里的商业意图留在自己体系里，避免这些需求未来彻底流向 ChatGPT。不过也不是什么好事儿，从财务结果看，这种迁移型增长和真正的外部新增量，完全不是一回事。广告预算之所以会新增，通常只有两种情况：1、要么你触达了过去触达不到的人群和场景，2、要么你创造了过去没有的转化效率。可 Gemini 目前最核心的使用场景，和搜索之间仍然有很强的重叠。相当一部分用户并没有在 Gemini 里产生太多全新的商业需求，只是换了一种交互方式，去完成原本就会发生的搜索、比较、决策和信息获取。既然短期导入的主要还是原有预算，那它就没必要为了这部分并不显著的增量，去冒更大的信任风险和监管风险。对一个年收入已经超过 4000 亿美元、手里又握着成熟现金牛的公司来说，这笔账并不难算：与其为了可能并不大的新增收入，提前打破用户对 Gemini 的角色信任，不如先把 AI Mode、AI Overviews 这些更接近搜索延长线的场景跑顺。广告主和技术能力，谷歌其实都不缺。眼下更关键的变量，在用户这一侧：大家是否已经准备好接受，对话式 AI 里也会出现商业信息。广告终究是围绕需求展开的生意，用户心理预期如果还没建立起来，产品和系统再成熟，也很难真正放量。某种程度上，谷歌现在也许愿意先看OpenAI 把这段路怎么走通。如果 ChatGPT 先把用户对商业信息的接触习惯教育和培养出来，把广告和体验之间的平衡先摸索一遍，谷歌再接上自己那套成熟的广告引擎，也不算迟。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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