苹果让利5个点，AI重新分配“过路费”

中国基金报03-18 22:16

以“下载-安装”为核心的应用商店黄金时代正在落幕，而另一种以“对话-调用”为范式的服务获取方式，正在大规模地、低成本地成为现实。　　今年3月，一个移动互联网时代持续了十六年的商业规则迎来重构。　　3月15日，苹果公司将其中国区App Store的核心佣金率从30%下调至25%。5个百分点的让步，是这座移动互联网时代“收费站”费率首次主动下调。　　同日，腾讯SkillHub平台上的AI技能数量悄然...

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Store，最初只有500个应用。没有人能想到，这个小小的商店会成为移动互联网最赚钱的渠道。在此后的十六年里，开发者赚100块，苹果抽走30块。（通常被称为“苹果税”）　　这种传统应用商店模式，建立在用户通过应用商店主动搜索、下载并安装独立应用（App）的基础之上。　　开发者别无选择，一位早期的App开发者回忆称：“不用App Store基本没有用户，中国每周的访客量有1.5亿人次。”很长一段时间内，这套规则都被业内视作不可动摇的“基础设施”。　　直到2017年的某天，微信小程序上线，没有直接挑战苹果，而是用了一种更聪明的方式——绕过App Store。用户无需下载安装，用完即走。　　当时苹果内部有人评价：“小程序？那不就是网页吗？”但微信的势能让所有人措手不及。到2025年，微信小程序日活已超4亿人。　　微信小程序等“轻应用”形态的普及，改变了用户获取服务的习惯，更深层次的变化在于人机交互方式的演进。　　某互联网大厂员工说：“当用户越来越习惯于通过对话和自然语言指令来解决问题时，以图形界面和独立应用为载体的这种传统路径必然会受到审视。” 把分发权还给用户　　2026年3月，腾讯推出了SkillHub。这个平台聚合了1.3万多个AI技能，覆盖生活服务、专业创作等多元场景。　　用户只需从官网复制一段提示词，粘贴到QClaw等AI代理产品中，技能就安装好了。整个过程在数秒内完成，彻底摒弃了下载、安装、更新、存储占用等传统应用的必要环节。　　这对开发侧的影响是颠覆性的。一位参与内测的开发者说：“做技能的投入只有App的十分之一。以前开发一个完整应用，要考虑UI、交互、版本兼容、审核周期。现在只需要梳理清楚业务逻辑，然后告诉AI我想要什么。”更关键的是，技能可以按需调用，不占手机存储空间。　　在传统应用商店模式下，用户为了偶尔用一次的功能下载一个上百兆的App，然后将其遗忘在手机里，这成为一种数字负担。SkillHub的模式是“需要时调用，不需要时消失”。　　举个例子，一个“抓取2026年春节档小红书点评内容”的需求，在传统模式下需开发独立爬虫应用；而在SkillHub上，该需求仅是一个可被自然语言调用的标准化技能。　　开发方式的改变也与之同步发生。例如字节跳动的AI原生编程工具Trae，开发者只需用中文描述需求，系统就能自动拆解任务、配置环境、生成可运行代码。　　一位体验过的开发者这样描述：“以往折腾半天做出来的东西可能还不像样。现在只需要说‘帮我做个春节接福小游戏’，10分钟后就能看到一个可玩的Demo。”　　Trae内置了Claude-3.5-Sonnet、GPT-4o和字节豆包模型，用户可根据任务特性灵活切换，所有模型免费开放无调用限制。　　阿里则通过千问串联起零售、健康、外卖等多业务，使用户可以在同一界面完成跨应用操作。百度在做文心智能体，华为在做盘古。　　以前他们是竞争对手，现在他们有了共同的“敌人”——App Store。用户可以通过自然语言直接调取服务能力，这使得应用分发权从平台的集中式货架，回归至用户去中心化的、基于意图的瞬时调用。 两种碰撞　　市场数据更直观地反映了两种范式的增长态势，一边是传统应用商店缓慢爬坡，一边是新智能体平台迅猛增长。　　2026年1月，App Store全球收入同比增长放缓至7%。而以OpenClaw为代表的智能体平台，其技能总量已超1.9万，且保持日均上千的增速。　　用户行为与商业闭环也在快速形成。摩根士丹利的报告显示，36%的ChatGPT用户在过去一个月内通过平台完成过购买，Agentic Commerce（智能体商务）市场规模预计可达3850亿美元。1688诚信通AI版上线后，GMV增长了73%。　　开发门槛的降低带来了长尾需求的爆发。在传统应用商店，一个自动整理下载文件夹的功能可能因收益太低而被忽视。开发一个完整App的需要一定成本，小众需求永远排不上优先级。　　但在SkillHub上，开发者只需梳理业务逻辑，通过聊天交互就能生成技能，成本趋近于零，一些小众需求也因此得到满足。有人做了“监控网页价格变动的技能”，有人做了“自动给文件按日期命名的技能”，有人做了“每周五提醒清理桌面的技能”。　　App Store与AI平台的竞争，也是“应用为中心”与“能力为中心”两种模式的碰撞，分别也在不同维度体现出来。　　分发逻辑：从“搜索-下载”的中心化分发，转向“对话-触发”的场景化按需调用。流量入口从集中的商店，离散嵌入到每一个对话与任务场景中。　　开发范式：从依赖Xcode等重型IDE、经历完整开发测试审核周期的“工程模式”，转向通过聊天交互即可生成技能、门槛极低的“脚本模式”。　　部署与更新：从需独立安装、占用存储、手动更新的“客户端”模式，转向即调即用、无需安装、自动静默更新的“云函数”模式。　　安全机制：从应用审核、沙盒隔离的事前防御，转向技能安全扫描、关键操作执行前需用户二次确认的动态管控，为进入高敏感度场景提供新思路。　　华创证券在报告中提到，在使用各种AI的过程中，用好Skills，可以把你从“每次都给AI当老师”的体验变成“AI替你当专家”。Skills可以让使用者的时间从“一次性的”变成“一次封装，终身免费”，并且可以把个人的行业经验，封装成Skill，将其挂出去出售、赠送或者授权；可以让AI的使用门槛从“写代码”降到“写流程”。　　对企业来说，过去员工离职，可能削弱团队力量，现在可以一定程度上把员工走之前的经验留在Skills中；同时，调用Skills后每次的输出结果质量更可控、风险更可控、合规更可控，可以真正做到个人经验的存留，个人的经验是最宝贵的资产。　　“在这个时代，你的专业知识就是你创造AI财富的最好的资产。”华创证券总结道。　　当用户习惯通过对话解决问题、开发者可在聊天界面完成技能开发、交易能在智能体内闭环，应用商店的中心化地位就不再稳固。　　“三十定律”统治移动互联网十六年，如今费率降至25%，5个百分点降幅背后是分发逻辑的重构。　　这并非一夜颠覆，而是时代的缓慢交接。就如现在不用磁带、胶卷，未来人们或许不再“下载App”，只需告诉AI需求，AI就能帮忙完成。　　而现在，正是未来的起点。（文章来源：中国基金报）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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