穆迪：若未来几周油价持续高企，美国经济衰退机率恐超50%

格隆汇03-17

3月17日，穆迪分析首席经济学家赞迪(Mark Zandi)表示，如果油价在未来几周内持续维持高位，美国经济将很难避免陷入衰退。他指出，只要霍尔木兹海峡仍实质上对油轮交通关闭，美国经济前景就会持续恶化。在伊朗冲突爆发前，穆迪利用机器学习模型建立的领先指标已显示，美国未来12个月内出现经济衰退的机率为49%。赞迪预期，下一次公布数据时，该模型显示的衰退机率将升至50%或更高。赞迪提醒，历史经验显示...

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