中信证券裘翔：利润率回升是A股接续牛市的关键

新浪证券03-19

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　3月19日，中信证券2026年春季资本市场论坛在京召开。中信证券首席A股策略师裘翔表示，二季度是A股慢牛之路上一个关键的信心重塑窗口。站在指数层面，企业利润率的长期企稳回升是A股接续牛市的必要前提，下个阶段关注重心要从估值转向利润率。　　同时，中东冲突是今年风格切换的催化剂，全球供应链的扰动再一次带来校验中国优势制造业...

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　　3月19日，中信证券2026年春季资本市场论坛在京召开。中信证券首席A股策略师裘翔表示，二季度是A股慢牛之路上一个关键的信心重塑窗口。站在指数层面，企业利润率的长期企稳回升是A股接续牛市的必要前提，下个阶段关注重心要从估值转向利润率。\n　　同时，中东冲突是今年风格切换的催化剂，全球供应链的扰动再一次带来校验中国优势制造业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2026-03-19/doc-inhrnviq4141507.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1997245094.SGD","symbol_name":"安联神州A股基金AT Acc 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　　3月19日，中信证券2026年春季资本市场论坛在京召开。中信证券首席A股策略师裘翔表示，二季度是A股慢牛之路上一个关键的信心重塑窗口。站在指数层面，企业利润率的长期企稳回升是A股接续牛市的必要前提，下个阶段关注重心要从估值转向利润率。\n　　同时，中东冲突是今年风格切换的催化剂，全球供应链的扰动再一次带来校验中国优势制造业定价权的契机，“中东冲突带来的能化成本冲击给了我们一个窗口，去观察和验证中国优势制造业是否真的能够结构性地体现定价权”。\n　　站在产业趋势层面，代码膨胀、实物稀缺，在中国的体现就是优势制造业定价权的提升，AI的破坏式创新加速以及全球能化供应链的扰动都在加强这一趋势。\n　　“中国资产的重估，不应该是围绕HALO做文章。”裘翔认为，HALO交易并非可以简单套在A股上的逻辑。海外的HALO交易，核心是筛选出能够在Al颠覆式创新冲击下，规避自由现金流受损或资本回报率下行压力的防御性标的，其本质上是一种被动的防御性切换；中国的逻辑有所不同，交易的核心是已具备市场份额与竞争优势的资源及制造业企业，主动管控未来资本开支节奏，将既有竞争优势转化为定价权提升与利润率修复，从而开启低回报资本开支高峰过后自由现金流重新扩张的进程。\n　　目前的底仓建议仍然是中国有份额优势、海外产能重置成本高难度大且供应弹性容易被政策影响的行业，以化工、有色、电力设备和新能源为基础。\n\n\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：杨赐","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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