伊朗战争打破传统多元化策略！热门押注全线瓦解，对冲基金遭遇自“解放日”以来最严重亏损

智通财经03-18

智通财经APP获悉，由于伊朗冲突升级，对冲基金遭受重创，油价飙升和市场全面抛售导致拥挤的交易瓦解。摩根大通全球市场策略师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou领导的团队在最近的一份报告中写道：“自冲突爆发以来，对冲基金经历了自‘解放日’以来最严重的亏损。”由于股票、货币和大宗商品价格的快速波动，投资者被迫在全球市场平仓。此次抛售潮标志着对冲基金领域传统的多元化投资策略几乎无法提供有效保护的...

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Panigirtzoglou领导的团队在最近的一份报告中写道：“自冲突爆发以来，对冲基金经历了自‘解放日’以来最严重的亏损。”由于股票、货币和大宗商品价格的快速波动，投资者被迫在全球市场平仓。此次抛售潮标志着对冲基金领域传统的多元化投资策略几乎无法提供有效保护的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1415346.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0203347892.USD","symbol_name":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD)  INC AV","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1415346.html","article_id":"2620287717","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620287717","pubTimestamp":1773816605,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，由于伊朗冲突升级，对冲基金遭受重创，油价飙升和市场全面抛售导致拥挤的交易瓦解。摩根大通全球市场策略师Nikolaos 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Hedge funds hit worst losses since 'Emancipation Day' as hot bets collapse across the board","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"JPMO":0.6,"CTA":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，由于伊朗冲突升级，对冲基金遭受重创，油价飙升和市场全面抛售导致拥挤的交易瓦解。摩根大通全球市场策略师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou领导的团队在最近的一份报告中写道：“自冲突爆发以来，对冲基金经历了自‘解放日’以来最严重的亏损。”由于股票、货币和大宗商品价格的快速波动，投资者被迫在全球市场平仓。此次抛售潮标志着对冲基金领域传统的多元化投资策略几乎无法提供有效保护的罕见时刻。在冲突爆发前，许多对冲基金增持了全球经济增长相关资产，包括超配股票和新兴市场，以及做空美元。这些交易现在正在迅速平仓。AlphaSimplex首席研究策略师Kathryn Kaminski表示：“市场普遍存在避险情绪，许多交易者担心通胀，甚至担心油价上涨可能带来负面增长冲击。”摩根大通指出，此前大量做空美元的押注，尤其是在新兴市场，已经迅速平仓，从而消除了风险资产的一个关键支撑来源。自2月28日伊朗战争爆发以来， MSCI世界指数下跌超过3%，此前该指数在2月初曾创下历史新高。同期，美元指数上涨约2%。Kaminski补充道：“由于大多数对冲基金对经济增长风险和股票市场都有合理的敞口，因此预计它们在这种环境下会举步维艰。”迄今为止，与股票密切相关的策略受到的冲击最大。摩根大通表示，从仓位配置的角度来看，股票似乎比债券“更容易受到冲击”，这表明投资者尚未完全解除风险敞口。多空股票基金是押注股票价格上涨或下跌的核心对冲基金策略之一，本月表现最差。根据对冲基金研究公司(HFR)提供的最新数据，3月份迄今为止，这类基金已下跌约3.4%，而整个行业的跌幅约为2.2%。更令人惊讶的是，通常被视为波动性受益者的策略也表现不佳。此次石油冲击传统投资模式“令人惊讶的是，全球宏观和商品交易顾问(CTA)的表现都很差，”另类投资咨询公司 Agecroft Partners 的创始人兼首席执行官 Don Steinbrugge表示。根据 HFR 的数据，全球宏观策略下跌了 3%，而追踪使用算法交易商品、货币和债券等市场的趋势跟踪对冲基金的CTA指数自战争开始以来也下跌了约3%。Steinbrugge称：“通常情况下，当市场波动性增加时，这些策略表现良好，而且往往与股票市场不相关。”业内资深人士表示，传统关系的破裂反映了当前冲击的特殊性。尽管霍尔木兹海峡油轮运输中断导致油价飙升，但通胀担忧和对全球经济增长受挫的顾虑使更广泛的市场影响变得更加复杂。摩根大通指出，此次石油危机与以往周期有所不同。通常情况下，原油价格上涨会提升石油出口国的收入，而其中一部分资金会被重新投资到股票和债券等全球市场。摩根大通策略师表示：“通常情况下……油价上涨会增加产油国的收入……[并]转化为海外资产。”这或许有助于减轻投资者的损失。但这一次，该银行指出，航运路线的中断阻碍了资金流动，减少了回流金融市场的资金量，从而切断了一个重要的现金流来源。HFR总裁Ken Heinz表示：“目前整体形势瞬息万变，难以判断我们正处于短期波动期还是长期动荡的开端。如果要我概括整个对冲基金界的感受，那就是‘现在，我们都是石油交易员’。”然而，这种动荡对所有基金的影响并不相同。大型多元策略平台由于将风险分散到多种交易风格中，迄今为止表现优于方向性更强的基金。Steinbrugge表示：“鉴于行业内的小幅抛售，大型多策略平台应该能够很好地应对，因为它们往往市场敞口较小。”接下来会发生什么?尽管对冲基金在 2025 年取得了16年来最大的年度收益，但与此同时，股票策略和主题宏观经济基金却引领了这一增长。现在，专家表示，对冲基金的命运现在很大程度上取决于冲突和石油供应中断会持续多久。如果紧张局势缓解，航运路线恢复正常，市场可能会趋于稳定，损失也可能只是暂时的。但如果这种情况持续下去，能源价格上涨可能会对全球经济造成更沉重的负担，损害消费者利益，减缓经济增长，并使市场持续承压。AdvisorShares 首席执行官Noah Hamman表示：“如果地缘政治风险持续存在，一些投资者寻求避险，赎回可能会增加。”与此同时，摩根大通认为，从仓位配置的角度来看，无论是在发达市场还是新兴市场，股票都比债券更容易受到冲击。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2620287717","isCrawlerRequest":true}