在全球疯狂扩产后，礼来评级罕见遭下调！减重药市场被高估了？

第一财经03-18

当地时间3月17日，全球市值最高的制药企业礼来公司收盘股价大跌6%，目前市值已经回落至9000亿美元下方，较前两周的高位水平缩水近1000亿美元。　　引发礼来当天股价大跌的是汇丰银行对其股价评级的下调，由原来的1070美元下调至850美元。截至3月17日收盘，礼来股价为930美元。这是华尔街近年来对该公司目标价格评级下调的罕见之举。自礼来推出GLP-1类药物替尔泊肽以来，券商机构纷纷押注，推动该...

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Weight Loss Drug Market Overvalued?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"LLII":0.6,"LLYX":0.6,"ELIL":0.6,"LLYZ":0.6,"ELIS":0.6,"LLY":1.96},"content_text":"当地时间3月17日，全球市值最高的制药企业礼来公司收盘股价大跌6%，目前市值已经回落至9000亿美元下方，较前两周的高位水平缩水近1000亿美元。　　引发礼来当天股价大跌的是汇丰银行对其股价评级的下调，由原来的1070美元下调至850美元。截至3月17日收盘，礼来股价为930美元。这是华尔街近年来对该公司目标价格评级下调的罕见之举。自礼来推出GLP-1类药物替尔泊肽以来，券商机构纷纷押注，推动该公司股价一路狂飙，市值在去年突破了1万亿美元大关。　　汇丰银行最新的评级报告意味着市场对减重药的长期看涨情绪可能开始出现转变。汇丰银行分析师认为，市场对礼来减重药的预期可能超过最终的结果，这一方面来源于激烈的竞争可能对价格产生的影响，这会影响整个减重药行业的整体盈利能力；另一方面，当前礼来公司的估值水平已经反映了市场超预期的乐观前景。　　汇丰下调礼来股价评级正值礼来在全球积极扩大制造产能之际。过去几个月来，礼来公司高管多次传递出信息，暗示公司已为下一代减重药部署了足够多的制造能力。就在本月初，礼来宣布在中国投资30亿美元新建生产线，着力布局新一代口服小分子GLP-1受体激动剂orforglipron的生产能力。该药物有望于今年第二季度获得美国FDA批准上市。　　在该药物获批前，礼来于上个月递交的一份备案文件显示，已经为orforglipron的上市储备了价值达15亿美元的库存，将能满足全球多个国家的供应。　　礼来还将在美国本土大建工厂。该公司去年表示，将投资至少270亿美元在美国新建四个生产基地，其中三个将专注于生产包括GLP-1类药物在内的活性药物成分，包括在宾夕法尼亚州的一个投资35亿美元的工厂以及60亿美元在阿拉巴马州投资的一处工厂。　　根据此前华尔街预期，到2030年，全球减重药市场规模有望达到1500亿美元，但汇丰银行认为，这一预期也可能被夸大了。展望未来，汇丰银行预计，到2032年全球减重药物市场规模可能达到800亿至1200亿美元之间。此外，该行还指出，礼来在研口服减重药orforglipron上市后，可能会因患者依从性不达预期而难以实现销售目标。据估计，orforglipron有望在2026年给礼来带来约15亿美元的收入。（文章来源：第一财经）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2620231993","isCrawlerRequest":true}