地缘与利率双杀！金价短线急跌后反弹，机构：黄金长期上行趋势不改

21世纪经济报道03-19

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端　　北京时间3月19日早间，现货黄金市场出现剧烈波动。金价一度跳水，最低触及4803美元/盎司，创下月内新低。随后金价略有反弹，收复部分失地，截至11：55，报4851.72美元/盎司，涨0.79%。　　受国际金价走弱影响，国内品牌足金饰品价格跟跌。其中，周生生金饰克价1492元，较前一日1547元/克的价格下跌55元/克...

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Gold price rebounded after a short-term sharp plunge, institutions: the long-term upward trend of gold does not change","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"GLL":1.5,"AAAU":1.5,"MGCmain":1.5,"GDXD":1.5,"QOmain":1.5,"SGUmain":0.6,"DUST":1.5,"DZZ":1.5,"GDXJ":1.5,"GLDM":1.5,"ZNmain":1.5,"XME":1.5,"IAUM":1.5,"ZFmain":1.5,"TNmain":1.5,"PALL":1.5,"GCmain":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"1OZmain":1.5,"UBmain":1.5,"JNUG":1.5,"NUGT":0.6,"SGOL":1.5,"GLD":0.6,"DGP":1.5,"SGCmain":0.6,"ZTmain":1.5,"GDX":1.5,"ZBmain":1.5},"content_text":"热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n　　北京时间3月19日早间，现货黄金市场出现剧烈波动。金价一度跳水，最低触及4803美元/盎司，创下月内新低。随后金价略有反弹，收复部分失地，截至11：55，报4851.72美元/盎司，涨0.79%。\n　　受国际金价走弱影响，国内品牌足金饰品价格跟跌。其中，周生生金饰克价1492元，较前一日1547元/克的价格下跌55元/克。\n　　地缘风险与美联储决议对金价形成双重打击\n　　从消息面看，中东地缘局势再度升温。据新华社3月19日报道，伊朗伊斯兰议会议长卡利巴夫18日在社交媒体上表示，敌人攻击伊朗基础设施的做法“无异于自杀”，伊朗已确立“以牙还牙”的原则，冲突的新阶段已经开始。\n　　与此同时，据新华社3月19日消息，美国联邦储备委员会18日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变。这一决定符合市场预期，是今年以来美联储连续第二次维持利率不变。美联储在货币政策声明中表示，中东局势对美国经济的影响尚不确定，经济前景的不确定性依然处于高位。现有指标显示，经济活动正稳步扩张，失业率最近几个月变化很小，但新增就业岗位数量依旧处于低位，通货膨胀依旧在一定程度上处于高位。\n　　东海期货表示，由于伊朗革命卫队威胁将袭击中东地区的多个能源设施，原油大幅上涨，通胀预期大幅上升；叠加美联储利率决议基调偏鹰，美元指数走强，共同对贵金属价格构成打压。\n　　短期压制不改长期上行逻辑，机构研判黄金配置窗口仍在\n　　地缘冲突走势尚不明朗，通胀预期大幅上升，后续美联储还会降息吗？\n　　开源证券认为，中东地缘局势紧张虽可能导致油价中枢上移，并推动油价上涨，但也带来经济下行压力。对美联储而言，目前的决策或仍是拉长观望时间。降息周期中外生冲击带来的通胀上升，对核心通胀的传导相对不高，因此再重新加息较难进入美联储的政策选择中。但美联储内部分裂的可能性后续或增加，降息或进一步延后。基准情形下，2026年美联储或还有降息空间，时间点或主要在3季度以后。\n　　展望后市，申银万国期货认为，尽管通胀压力导致美联储降息预期预期下修，短期对贵金属造成压制，但从中长期来看，贵金属价格中枢将持续上移。市场对美国财政可持续性担忧仍在加剧，叠加全球政治经济秩序重构、全球央行储备资产多元化，去美元化进程持续推进。因此，综合地缘风险、抗通胀需求、去美元化及央行购金等多重因素，黄金长期上行趋势不改。\n　　策略方面，中信证券最新研报认为，历次中东冲突后，金价的中期走势仍取决于美元信用和流动性因素。展望本轮冲突，预计流动性宽松以及美元信用弱化两大趋势的延续将继续推升金价。历史上估值或股价分位的优势会强化黄金板块的上涨空间，而当前头部公司PE估值水平回落至15-20x的历史低位，同时考虑到近年来股价高点和金价高点高度同步，看好金价新高推动的股价新高。\n\n　　（声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。）\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：朱赫楠","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2620215077","isCrawlerRequest":true}